2017 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2017 Fantasy Football ADP Report: Risers and Fallers

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With Preseason Week 3 in the rearview mirror, it’s OFFICIALLY fantasy football draft season. If your league commissioner is smart, your league’s draft is taking place this week. With most teams’ starters sitting out Week 4 of the preseason, you no longer have to worry about a random injury in the preseason derailing your perfect draft. A moment of silence please, as we honor those lost too soon. Rest in 2017-2018 Julian Edelman, Spencer Ware, Cameron Meredith, Quincy Enunwa, Kenneth Dixon, and Ryan Tannehill. See you all next year.

Over the past few months we’ve talked ourselves onto and off of multiple hype trains, watched hours of film, read countless articles, and mock drafted dozens – if not hundreds – of times. During that time, a lot has changed. Players have risen and fallen down draft boards due to beat reports, preseason production, and even just random speculation.

With most drafts taking place this weekend, it’s a great time to look at the risers and fallers in Average Draft Position (ADP) and what caused them. We’ll look at these players’ stocks from the beginning of the preseason compared to where they are going currently.

After reading this article, go sharpen up on your draft skills using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard. It’s an incredible web application that lets you complete mock drafts within minutes against individual web site draft rankings, expert ADPs, or other custom settings. Get expert advice while you draft and really hone your skills.

2017 Fantasy Football ADP Report

All ADP’s gathered from the good folks at fantasyfootballcalculator.com 

Risers:

Fantasy Football ADP for Brandin Cooks, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook

 Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots (July 29th: 3.09 – August 29th: 2.09)

Throughout the preseason, Cooks was steadily moving up from his initial spot of 3.09, settling at about 3.01. Then, everything changed when the fire nation attacked  Julian Edelman went down for the season with a torn ACL. In those four days, Cooks has climbed to 2.09 and may end up even higher. With Edelman out, Cooks’ role as the WR1 in the Patriots offense is solidified.

Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina Panthers (4.03 – 3.02)

McCaffery’s draft stock has been fluctuating throughout the offseason, dipping to a low of 4.03 before reaching his current peak of 3.02. It seems drafters’ concerns were assuaged by his play during the preseason, where he flashed his playmaking ability.

Let someone else take him this early, as he is a reach at this draft position. He’s still splitting touches with Jonathan Stewart and likely won’t have many scoring opportunities with Cam Newton, Stewart, and redzone monsters Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin on the field.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (5.03 – 3.03)

Cook is another rookie running back skyrocketing up the draft boards. However, unlike McCaffery, his role is more defined. The Vikings are content to let Cook run amok as the every-down back with Latavius Murray rotating in. Cook looks like a perfect fit for their offense and brings a dimension neither Murray nor Jerrick McKinnon brings. I would much rather have Cook than McCaffery, especially at this draft price.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (6.03 – 4.08)

With concerns about his physical fitness out of the way, Benjamin returns to the mid-WR2 tier. Benjamin has looked physically dominant in the preseason, catching two touchdowns and looking every bit the stud he was his rookie season. He, along with this Panthers offense, should rebound from a down 2016.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (8.10 – 4.10)

Hunt was a rookie that many people were high on, but we all assumed he needed to beat out Spencer Ware. Well, that’s not an issue anymore, as Ware will miss the season with a PCL injury. Hunt immediately steps into a running back friendly offense with a coach that has consistently produced productive fantasy running backs.

Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas Cowboys (13.11 – 6.05)

McFadden’s ascent up the draft boards is the direct result of the Ezekiel Elliot suspension. Elliot will likely miss the first six games of the season, making McFadden the Cowboys’ starter for those games.

In 2015, McFadden totaled 1089 on 4.6 yards per pop behind the league’s best offensive line. For these six games, McFadden will be a low-end RB1 every week, and you could do a lot worse than that in the sixth round.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins (8.08 – 6.06)

“I think he’s kind of a faster Alshon, a little bit.”

– Jay Cutler

And with those words and a few big preseason plays, the DeVante Parker hype train was off and running. Parker, a first round pick in 2015, had obvious talent. However, there were questions about his role in the Dolphins’ offense and Ryan Tannehill’s ability to connect with him.

Enter Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler does not care. If he thinks Parker is comparable to Alshon Jeffery, we know he will throw any and all balls in that direction.

Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins (8.07 – 7.01)

Reports of Fat Rob’s demise were greatly exaggerated. He may be an unexciting, plodding back, but he gets the job done. And unlike Semaje Perine, he pass blocks.

Reports out of camp — and just by looking at the number of first team snaps Kelley has in the preseason – are that there is a sizeable gap between Kelley and Perine. Even if Perine does eventually take over, Kelley should be more than serviceable as the lead back of an offense that figures to score a ton.

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks (9.10 – 8.05)

A forgotten man in 2016, Rawls enters the 2017 campaign atop the Seahawks’ depth chart. While he still has to contend with Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and undrafted man-child Chris Carson, there’s something to be said about being the nominal starting running back on a good offense. Especially for a guy like Rawls who has proved before that he can carry the load. If Lacy (likely) or Prosise (likelier) gets hurt, Rawls could see the lion’s share of the touches.

Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots (Undrafted – 10.09)

Another product of the Edelman injury, Hogan is now firmly on redraft radars. It’s not a given that he replaces Edelman in the slot, but the man they call 7-11 (he’s always open) promptly hooked up with Tom Brady for two touchdowns after Edelman got hurt. There are 158 targets that need to be replaced in New England, and if Hogan takes a sizeable chunk of that, he’ll be a factor this season.

Fallers

Fantasy Football ADP for Mike Gillislee, Sammy Watkins, LeGarrette Blount, Allen Robinson

Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Dallas Cowboys (1.04 – 2.03)

For a guy facing a six game suspension, Elliot hasn’t had quite the fall from grace I would have expected. He’s currently going at 2.03 – pick number 15. The guys at FantasySixPack.net all have him within the 23-36 range.

He’s an immensely talented player – a surefire top-5 back when he returns – but six games is a lot. You have to be supremely confident in your ability to get Darren McFadden or stay afloat for seven weeks (the Cowboys have a bye in Week 7). Either way, it’s quite a conundrum for drafters.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.06 – 2.10)

This might not seem like that much of a fall, but the reasoning is more significant. Fournette is again dealing with the same foot injury he dealt with in college. That combined with an offense that considered starting Chad Freaking Henne is enough for me to bump him down my draft board – further than 2.10 to be frank.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2.07 – 3.04)

Through no fault of his own, Hilton has seen a pretty significant drop in ADP over the last few weeks.

The man at fault is Andrew Luck. Well… actually no, it’s not his fault he’s hurt. So the man at fault is Scott Tolzein. Ehh, then again I’m sure he’s doing his best; it’s not his fault he stinks. So really, the man to blame is Chris Ballard, who knew Andrew Luck was having issues with his shoulder and decided that Tolzein was an adequate backup.

If Luck is playing, Hilton is easily a top 10 receiver. But since Luck’s health is up in the air, we have no choice but to drop Hilton down our board.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (3.07 – 4.01)

 

It’s hard to believe a 6’1″ 215 pound man can move like that, but Joe Mixon exists. Sadly so do Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, and Marvin Lewis.

I firmly believe Mixon will win this job in the long run, but Hill and Bernard are (somewhat) proven veterans who will pigeon-hole Mixon into a supplementary role at first. That makes it hard to draft him at 3.07 and maybe even 4.01. But he’s a dynamic talent and if Lewis sees the light, he could be a league winner.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams (3.09 – 6.01)

While Watkins may be excited about his move to Los Angeles for the lifestyle, he can’t be too excited about the quarterback change. Goff has potential, but he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season.

However, I think the hate has gone too far. Kenny Britt was more than serviceable as a fantasy receiver last year and Watkins is 10 times the talent he is. Goff should make improvements and new coach Sean McVay projects to be one of the more creative offensive minds in the league.

Allen Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (4.02 – 5.03)

 

It’s simple: Blake Bortles can’t keep it in bounds, bro.

I jest, but not really. Bortles is so bad that the Jaguars considered benching him for Chad Henne. Henne hasn’t started a game since 2014 and these are his career numbers. Yeah, seriously.

Passing Table
Year Age Tm Pos G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
2008 23 MIA 3 0 7 12 58.3 67 0 0 74.0
2009 24 MIA QB 14 13 7-6-0 274 451 60.8 2878 12 14 75.2
2010 25 MIA QB 15 14 6-8-0 301 490 61.4 3301 15 19 75.4
2011 26 MIA qb 4 4 0-4-0 64 112 57.1 868 4 4 79.0
2012 27 JAX qb 10 6 1-5-0 166 308 53.9 2084 11 11 72.2
2013 28 JAX QB 15 13 4-9-0 305 503 60.6 3241 13 14 76.5
2014 29 JAX qb 3 3 0-3-0 42 78 53.8 492 3 1 80.7
2016 31 JAX 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Care Care 65 53 18-35-0 1159 1954 59.3 12931 58 63 75.5
4 yr 4 yr JAX 29 22 5-17-0 513 889 57.7 5817 27 26 75.4
4 yr 4 yr MIA 36 31 13-18-0 646 1065 60.7 7114 31 37 75.7
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2017.

In addition, Doug Marrone said he would run the ball every play if he could. Sounds like a ringing endorsement for a wide receiver’s fantasy value.

Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots (4.09 – 5.07)

Gillislee has major upside if he can duplicate what LeGarrette Blount did last year for the Patriots. However, he’s missed a significant amount of camp and preseason and Bill Belichick said he “has ground to make up.”

More importantly, the Patriots backfield is just too crowded. The Patriots will roll out their running backs on a game plan basis. That means that when Gillislee has a good matchup, he’s good to go. But if a team is vulnerable to one of their pass catching backs, Gillislee might not have a role that week. That’s a big risk to take on a guy this high who hasn’t proven himself yet.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (5.03 – 6.04)

Blount has had a bit of a roller coaster ride of news these last few weeks. One day, beat writers are saying he might not make the team. Literally the next day the head coach says he’s going to be a big part of the offense. Then he splits first team snaps with Wendell Smallwood.

It’s hard to really figure out what’s going on with Blount, so my advice is just to stay away. He remains touchdown dependent and a rough fit in the shotgun run scheme the Eagles are employing.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks (5.11 – 8.03)

Some might find the dramatic drop in ADP rank alarming, but I think it’s mostly just that he was being drafted too high to begin with. Lacy was never a shoe-in to with the Seahawk’s starting running back job and even if he did, he wasn’t going to be a bell-cow guy. Now that the Seahawks have confirmed that in the preseason, he’s falling down draft boards towards a more reasonable ADP.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (5.10 – 8.10)

The only quarterback on either of these lists, Luck has taken a precipitous fall due to a mysterious shoulder injury. So much so that he has become a value at his draft point.

While it obviously makes me nervous that not even his head coach really knows what is going on, Luck is still only projected to miss just Week 1 and maybe Week 2. If you can get Andrew Luck – a definitive top-5 fantasy quarterback when healthy – at his current ADP for those other 14 weeks, he’s well worth the risk.


2017 Fantasy Football Position Previews
QuarterbacksRunning BacksWide ReceiversTight Ends

For more F6P preseason coverage please visit our 2017 Draft Kit section.

About Kevin Huo

Kevin is a fantasy football writer for Fantasy Six Pack. He considers every angle - whether statistical or theoretical - when weighing his options and isn't afraid to be a contrarian. You can follow him on Twitter: @KevinH_F6P

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