Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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It was the Week of the Blowout in Week 9 with seven of the thirteen games on the slate not being very competitive. The defenses had large parts to do with the crazy point differentials and the chart once again was very good in most aspects of the weekend. Here are some notable thoughts I had while watching the Red Zone channel last weekend:

  • The Los Angeles Rams have an elite defense and it showed against the Giants on Sunday. They are one of the few ‘matchup-proof’ defenses and that won’t even matter against a Tom Savage-led Texans offense this weekend. Also, the New York Giants just look dead and their coach is a meatball.
  • Although it didn’t show well on the fantasy side, the Detroit Lions were great this past Monday night against the Packers. There will be better days ahead for the Lions in terms of scoring in fantasy, starting this weekend with the hapless Browns. This also reinforces the idea that the Green Bay Packers are a stack target for opposing fantasy defenses, which is foreshadowing for a team I will discuss later in this piece.
  • Surprisingly enough, it was the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks who had the slugfest this past weekend. Washington looks pretty good defensively, but I was really impressed by what I saw out of the Seahawks in a losing effort. Seattle remains one of those teams that you start in almost every scenario, especially this week against the Cardinals on Thursday night.

Alright, on to the fun stuff!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: Chiefs, Eagles, Raiders, Ravens

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Rams69.0HOU502526213130138.0
2Lions73.8CLE502815282922127.0
3Steelers60.6IND002628102629119.0
4Seahawks93.8ARI002316202726112.0
5Bears7.9GB502422152520111.0
6Panthers66.5MIA502710221828110.0
7Jaguars96.6LAC50205113232105.0
8Saints46.8BUF0015272282597.0
9Titans24.1CIN50212525101197.0
10Vikings75.8WAS0016186202484.0
11Patriots29.2DEN002224274279.0
12Bengals53.8TEN0081319161975.0
13Packers14.7CHI00101923101375.0
14Broncos84.9NE504141192770.0
15Dolphins14.8CAR005172613970.0
16Bills57.4NO501815221768.0
17Jets2.5TB001991881266.0
18Buccaneers6.2NYJ501123165363.0
19Cowboys21.9ATL006817211062.0
20Chargers6.4JAX009712171661.0
21Ravens76.3BYE----------303161.0
22Giants11.2SF001721133559.0
23Redskins14.5MIN501323152159.0
24Cardinals68.5SEA507111471458.0
25Texans89.6LAR001.568231856.5
26Browns1.2DET001.5204121552.5
2749ers16.8NYG50141292850.0
28Colts2.3PIT5033246647.0
29Eagles91.0BYE----------242347.0
30Falcons26.7DAL50124710442.0
31Chiefs79.1BYE----------14721.0
32Raiders15.7BYE----------112.0

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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My snoozefest pick in Week 9 actually ended up being a really good game, so I’ll try not to screw it up this time!

This week I’m going with the Monday Night Football contest between the Panthers and Dolphins. I mean, geez, who wants to watch these two teams play in primetime anyway?

The Panthers are your typical ground and pound team that doesn’t really make big plays. Especially now without Kelvin Benjamin, their passing attack will take a hit and force even more dump-off passes to Christian McCaffrey than the typical audience would care to see. They haven’t exactly been lighting the scoreboard up in their last four games with just ~16 PPG to show.

The Dolphins offense has been unwatchable for most of the season despite a 24-point “outburst” against the worst defense in football (Oakland) in Week 9. After trading away Jay Ajayi at the deadline, they can’t seriously think that their offense will see improvement. Fire the Panthers up as a top 5 offense this week.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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The Cowboys once again find themselves in this section. This time they face the Falcons in the Georgiadome in what should be a fun shootout. It’s the only game that surpasses 50-point over/under threshold in Week 10 and you’ll definitely want to avoid the defenses for that very reason.

I know the ‘boys only allowed 17 points against a stout Chiefs offense last week. However, you can’t tell me that you watched the Tyreek Hill touchdown at the end of the first half last week and still want to trust the Dallas defense. It’s still a bottom 10 defense in DVOA! Additionally, the Falcons, although not as potent offensively as their 2016 form, are still an offense that avoids turnovers and sacks.

As for the Falcons, who the hell wants to play a defense against Dallas right now? Dak Prescott is playing out of his mind, Ezekiel Elliott is fighting off suspension by the week and making other teams pat for it… There’s no reason to stream a defense against the Cowboys right now unless it’s an every week starter like the Jaguars or Rams.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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Did someone say Ryan Fitzpatrick-Josh McCown double-reverse revenge game?!

Weird narrative aside, I’m curious to see how this matchup between the Jets and Buccaneers plays out in Week 10. I’m actually surprised to see the Jets as just a 1-point favorite this week even though they are on the road. The Buccaneers will be without Jameis Winston and Mike Evans for largely different reasons. Tampa has not looked good with those guys in the lineup anyway.

The Jets broke a three game losing streak, but they’ve been competitive in almost all of their games in what has been a surprising 4-5 record. However, the defense isn’t much to write home about and is likely the reason that they aren’t in the playoff picture at the moment.

To be clear, I’m not starting either of these defenses. I’ll be attentive to this game, but I want no shares.

Notables

Chicago Bears, DST5 (7.9%)

The chart projects a great floor for the Bears against Green Bay this week. How I can tell this? Well, here’s a tip when reading the chart – don’t just look at the rankings. Dig deeper and ask why they are there. In some cases, a team will have an incredible matchup but a subpar defense and they’ll be ranked in the top 10. The reverse of that certainly applies and should still raise a red flag.

So why do I love the Bears this week? Well, the chart has Chicago in the 15 to 25 range on the five major point-getting categories. That’s above average across the board, people! No one should be scared of the matchup or scared of the quality of defense here is what I’m getting at with all this hullabaloo. This defense has not been receiving the proper credit before their bye week and I truly believe they can be a force down the stretch in 2017.

At the very least, they should be started in over 75% of lineups this week and streamed in DFS on the cheap as well. A top five ranking is very fair and I agree with the chart wholly. They are certainly Stream of the Week material!

Tennessee Titans, DST9 (24.1%)

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Remember what I said about ‘how to read the chart’ in the last section? Yeah, an example of ‘great matchup, bad defense’ could be spotted here with Tennesse facing off against the Bengals. How trustworthy can the Titans be this week though?

I can assure you that the matchup is fantastic. The Bengals have been subpar in so many ways offensively despite having good players on paper. That offensive line has been a mess this year and there’s no fixing it now. As for the Titans, I suppose they have been reasonably acceptable on defense this past few games. On their current three game winning streak, the defense has risen from second to last in DVOA to 22nd. That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s a tough thing to do this far into the year. The competition hasn’t admittedly been awesome with the Colts, Browns, and Ravens. However, don’t the Bengals fall into that group as well?

I think the Titans can be an under-the-radar play in DFS, but don’t go running to your waiver wire to start them in your season-long format. You shouldn’t have to burn a waiver claim on them in 12-team leagues if you need them (although I would rather play the defense listed below if possible).

New England Patriots, DST11 (29.2%)

I know, I know, I have been ragging on the Patriots defense all season. What gives?

Brock Osweiler gives. He gives turnovers and sacks.

But for real, the Patriots have been playing better defensively as of late. After allowing ~33 PPG in their first four games, they have rebounded and allowed just ~13 PPG in their last four contests. As New England tends to do, they stop the bleeding very quickly and are swift in making adjustments.

Lined up against a paltry Broncos offense this week, I have no qualms starting the Pats defense in mid-size leagues. I mean, c’mon, is Brock really gonna put up more than 23 points against any defense like he did last week? There’s your floor right there and it only goes way up from there.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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