Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 12 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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Defenses were a hot topic in Week 11 in reality and fantasy circles! Here were a few of the major happenings in Week 11:

  • You were probably pretty happy if you streamed the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. You would have been happier if the ghost of Champ Bailey didn’t knock this ball free from Dre Kirkpatrick en route to an easy pick-six. Nonetheless, you should definitely keep the Bengals for the matchup with the Browns. Cleveland has allowed top 10 scoring weeks by ESPN standards in all but two weeks thus far.
  • Welcome to the NFL, Nathan Peterman. I honestly just feel bad for the guy and will let other analysts take handle over the jesting and mockery. The Los Angeles Chargers were the benefactor of his stinkfest, forcing six turnovers on the way to a blowout. I wouldn’t mind keeping the Chargers for Week 12 against a struggling Cowboys squad. Chart has them at DST14, but I’m thinking that’s due to statistics from earlier this season.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are my early favorite for ‘most common player on championship teams’. They are 13th in ESPN standard scoring format for the 2017 season to date among all positions. That’s behind 11 quarterbacks and Todd Gurley. Un-freakin’-believable! Another top five rating by the chart should keep them on pace for DST1 glory at the end of the season.
  • The Seattle Seahawks secondary was getting worked by Julio Jones and the Falcons on Monday night. Week 1 without Richard Sherman looked uninspiring and they are in consideration for dropping after this week. Consult Johnathan Chan’s drop list for more convincing on this notion.

Good stuff. Before I forget, I will try to include dates of these games. However, please make sure to address your defensive situation before the slate of Thanksgiving games. Don’t get caught at the dinner table realizing that you could have picked up the Chargers defense.

Some people tell me that I need to put more effort into my intros. Umm, homies, you really trying to read my rants and dilly-dallies from my personal life? No, you are here for hard-hitting defensive analysis. Don’t distract me!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 12 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Steelers72.4GB553231252729154.0
2Ravens82.4HOU50282927.53132152.5
3Eagles75.1CHI553025172828138.0
4Bengals62.4CLE5029233219.521129.5
5Jaguars97.6ARI002417233231127.0
6Panthers64.6NYJ0521.530201827121.5
7Seahawks91.7SF0025.522152624112.5
8Chiefs68.7BUF50272821148103.0
9Vikings73.9DET0019273212696.0
10Jets4.0CAR5517.51627.5101394.0
11Browns1.2CIN00102622122090.0
12Texans84.5BAL00111326221789.0
13Patriots42.5MIA55317.5299288.5
14Chargers52.5DAL00151412252288.0
15Falcons19.0TB5025.59.51619.51186.5
16Rams83.3NO5012.52629.53085.0
17Raiders5.8DEN5021.524311183.5
18Titans16.8IND002032146.51082.5
19Colts0.7TEN5012.521305780.5
20Bears39.6PHI052208231977.0
21Broncos73.3OAK00951915.52371.5
22Lions84.1MIN501514.529.51671.0
23Redskins9.5NYG502311981470.0
24Cardinals65.8JAX5017.59.5136.51869.5
25Saints51.6LAR00862242565.0
26Packers15.1PIT054424111563.0
27Cowboys17.1LAC501531015.5957.5
28Bills23.4KC005197131256.0
29Buccaneers10.2ATL0037.51817651.5
3049ers3.6SEA50715112545.0
31Giants13.3WAS006184.53435.5
32Dolphins12.9NE0511214326.0

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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Stream-O-Matic’s selection for snoozer of the week goes to Baltimore where the Ravens host the Texans. The Monday night game has stinker written all over it and I want no part of the offenses. The Ravens would have set a Stream-O-Matic record for highest rating in a given week if the Steelers hadn’t stolen that honor from them in the same week. On the other side though, who really scares you from Baltimore? If your gut tells you to stream the Texans, I wouldn’t bet against it. My gut tells me that they will be at least a top 12 option.

Author’s pick goes to the Panthers & Jets contest up in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Windy conditions are expected, which leads me to believe that this will be a low scoring affair. Neither offense is exactly elite anyway – there’s only a couple of guys who will be started from either side. Of course, play the Panthers with confidence this week. However, check out the low-owned Jets sneaking into the conversation. If you are desperate for a defense and want to put your faith in the chart, go for the gusto! Both are coming off bye weeks as well.

My gut’s also telling me that I shouldn’t have had that fried chicken for lunch, but I digest.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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Stream-O-Matic says that the Giants will aim to keep up with Redskins in a shootout. Despite plenty of talk of using the Redskins as a streaming option, the chart has turned me off from it. Ideally the matchup is fine, but I don’t believe in the Redskins enough to think they can exploit it. I also don’t want to use a defense on Thursday and start off on the wrong foot. The Giants should never be considered as an option, so no qualms there.

Author says that the RamsSaints will light up the board on Sunday afternoon in L.A. I do think the Rams bounce back after a rough loss to Minnesota and the Saints defense is coming off their worst performance in awhile. Meanwhile, the Saints are likely the worst offense for any streaming defense to face. I understand ‘start your studs’, but there’s absolutely no upside here for the Rams defense. These defenses are better used another week.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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Once again, there’s disparity between the author and chart. The Stream-O-Matic claims that the Titans and Colts will induce more shoulder shrugs than any other combo this week. I get it, both teams have been very average at best this year. However, I think there’s sneaky shootout potential here. Neither defense is good and both offenses are balanced enough to keep on the attack. Just don’t use either of these defenses this week to be safe.

For the author, I shrug my shoulders the most aggressively towards this game between the Raiders and Broncos. What the hell do we expect here? Both teams have been a mess on offense lately and the defenses have not been stellar. I think this is a closely contested battle where the ratio of offense to opposing defense is about the same on the field for both teams. I’m certainly not ever rostering the Oakland defense. On the other hand, this can be a ‘gain my trust back’ week for the Broncos as the schedule lines up well for them in the weeks following Week 12.

Notables

New England Patriots, DST13 (42.5%)

My stream of the week is a team I haven’t been nice to almost all season. However, as the Patriots only know to do, when they have a weakness, they figure out a way to fix it or hide it. I’m not sure which category this falls into, but their secondary has appeared to right the ship after a brutal start to the year.

Now they attract either a formerly concussed Jay Cutler or career backup Matt Moore this week at home. The Patriots absolutely OWN the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. They’ve won the last eight meetings there with an average score of about 31.9-13.7. The Vegas implied score from the spread and point total is 32.5-15.5. You can’t make this stuff up – you can just about take this to the bank.

With game flow and history in favor of New England, expect them to perform well on defense once again this week.

Cleveland Browns, DST11 (1.2%)

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I was really surprised at where the Browns ended up this week. They rose EIGHT spots in the DVOA ratings this week from 21st to 13th overall. That’s a crazy jump with this large of a sample size! I didn’t realize limiting the Jaguars to their worst offensive performance of the season (arguably) could have that sort of impact. When you look at their performances this year, in the right matchup, they can provide a solid, under-the-radar performance.

This game with the Bengals is an interesting one and one that could also turn into a snoozefest. As mentioned, the Bengals should be a popular DST this week, but how does that affect the Browns’ ability to have success? I don’t think much, especially considering the Bengals offense is below average. These teams are much different than their Week 4 versions and I think the Browns have a chance to make this game ugly.

Although the chart loves them this week at 11th, I still believe this is more of a DFS play in tournaments. They are going to be very low-owned and you could come away with a sneaky top 10 finish if the Bengals have one of their classic dud games.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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