Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 13 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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“Little does she know that she’s witnessed a reoccuring spectacle at Nashville’s Union Station. A nameless womans says her goodbye to her soldier there on the platform, before he ships off to France in World War II. When she arrives at that same spot to greet him on his return, she’s instead met with word that he was killed in action. Distraught, she throws herself in front of a passing locomotive far below. The spirit of her departed love returns, looking for her in the last place he saw her. Two ghosts, still separated after all these years.”

— Excerpt from a story from ‘A Gothic Curiosity Cabinet’ website

Quick poll: would you like to see how I tie this story into fantasy sports or say something really stupid as to proceed with the usual happenings of this article?

Waiting on results…

Receiving your results…

Results are in!

Analyzing your results…

Cool staircase, eh? I picked a cool staircase in Nashville as my main image. This is because I am a fan of foreshadowing in literature.

Meanwhile, here’s what tickled my fancy in Week 12:

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers set the Stream-O-Matic record for rating last week. So, it was only natural that they finished in the bottom third of the league in fantasy scoring. I’m back in this week against a Bengals offense that hasn’t impressed against good competition this season.
  • The only multi-touchdown defense of Week 12 belonged to the Carolina Panthers. Despite their consistency all year, I am 100% out on them in the Superdome this week against the Saints. When is that ever a good idea?
  • The most dominant performance of the week for me was the one produced by the Philadelphia Eagles against Chicago. Not only were there just three points allowed, but two sacks and two turnovers. I am not completely comfortable playing them against the Seahawks, but you could do worse.
  • What the New England Patriots have done to turn around their early defensive woes is somewhat miraculous. They were the top fantasy scorer at the DST position against the Dolphins last week behind seven sacks and three turnovers. You know what, count me in another week in a nice matchup with Buffalo.

Alright, ready for more smart words in my many-worded article?

2017 Fantasy Football Week 13 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Chargers42.5CLE503225322722143.0
2Jaguars97.7IND503132113231142.0
3Steelers89.8CIN002724202628125.0
4Ravens87.1DET50232763132124.0
5Rams73.9ARI002815232929124.0
6Saints41.8CAR502020272425121.0
7Bears29.0SF5025.521172320111.5
8Titans21.3HOU5029.52828129111.5
9Eagles89.7SEA002313133030109.0
10Broncos65.5MIA002312291621101.0
11Patriots64.9BUF0025.5291917696.5
12Texans72.9TEN007183120.51692.5
13Lions71.8BAL00121125281389.0
14Chiefs67.3NYJ0021301614788.0
15Dolphins8.4DEN5018.526304285.5
16Seahawks93.4PHI505175252683.0
17Buccaneers7.2GB0015.5312211382.5
18Redskins11.8DAL00131621131982.0
19Bengals78.0PIT509426191578.0
20Vikings76.8ATL001061420.52777.5
2149ers2.9CHI001423242568.0
22Cowboys14.6WAS5018.52279465.5
23Packers11.3TB5015.571281764.5
24Jets3.5KC501119861261.0
25Raiders14.7NYG5029.514101160.5
26Panthers79.1NO00732.5222357.5
27Cardinals48.2LAR50384102454.0
28Falcons30.1MIN501722.518852.5
29Bills16.4NE502101151447.0
30Colts0.7JAX00491551144.0
31Giants10.6OAK00751831043.0
32Browns2.1LAC0011971836.0

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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There aren’t many games the Stream-O-Matic expects to be dominated by defenses. Therefore, I must select the best available option for the ‘honor’, which belongs to the Ravens and Lions. Both are top 13 options by chart standards, but this feels less like a low-scoring affair than it would have a couple of weeks ago.

The Ravens offense is coming off a stronger appearance against a decent Texans defense. They were able to run all over that strong front, which surprised this author. Meanwhile, the Lions got absolutely TORCHED by the Vikings on Thanksgiving day. With a couple of extra days rest, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a bounce back performance by Detroit. Although, it’s been a trend lately of allowing opposing offenses to have their way.

On the other side, the Lions offense is not one that I like to stream against. The Vikings defense did do well against them, posting two turnovers and three sacks. Detroit has been prone to sacks this year, so I expect the Ravens to be fruitful in that category. However, I just always feel queasy when streaming against offenses like the Lions that have the upside to go off every week.

I would be fine streaming the Ravens as a DST1, but better options could be available on waivers. On the other hand, steer clear from the Lions DST, as I believe the DST13 is about as good as it will get.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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The Stream-O-Matic says that the Giants and Raiders will battle it out to high point totals. Unfortunately, the Stream-O-Matic is unaware of the Giants’ decision to switch to Geno Smith under center. What I see happening differently is Oakland becoming a larger favorite. However, I don’t believe this vaults the Raiders defense into streaming plausibility. This is the worst defense in the league and not even Geno can change that. What I will say, although I don’t like talking about the effect on offense, is that the Raiders running game should be busy in the second half. Just an FYI for DFS players looking for an edge.

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My new shootout of the week will go to the Falcons and Vikings. Both offenses are coming off monstrous weeks. Neither offense is prone to negative plays as of recently. Case Keenum has played for his job in the last three weeks, averaging 285 YPG and a 115 passer rating. The Falcons have been heating up in that same stretch and should get Devonta Freeman back. There should be no hankering to stream either defense this Sunday.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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Anyone able to watch the Redskins or Cowboys this season without shrugging their shoulders? The Cowboys have been lost without Ezekiel Elliott and it doesn’t seem like a one-week fix. The Redskins get a bit of a pass with having such a tough schedule, but they’ve been inconsistent as well. I actually believe the Redskins will win by double digits here, but Vegas has Dallas as the 1-point favorite. I would be hammering bets for Washington, but we all should realize by now that #Vegasknows.

Another shoulder workout comes in the form of the Buccaneers and Packers. The Packers have been wildly unpredictable since Aaron Rodgers got hurt, but Brett Hundley actually looked decent last week against a solid Pittsburgh defense. What do we think of this offense now? On the Tampa side, they sucked in a matchup that should have yielded fantasy goodness. Also, they couldn’t have stopped Julio Jones if he was blindfolded and running backwards. If Week 12 versions of these teams carry over into Week 13, I expect a Green Bay blowout.

But who the hell knows?

Notables

Los Angeles Chargers, DST1 (42.5%)

The Chargers have a defense. The Chargers play the Browns in Week 13. Therefore, you must play the Chargers defense this week to assure you a spot or win in the playoffs.

Look, fantasy football can be a difficult venture. Just don’t overthink this – Chargers DST are No. 1 on the chart and for good reason. Unless you think Josh Gordon is going to return gloriously and have one of his 200-yard games for old times sake, then there is no need to worry. Wait, is that gonna happen?

Okay, no, that’s not going to happen. And even if it does, it’s still DeShone Kizer chucking the rock. A top 5 finish is more than likely this week and the Chargers are still shockingly available in many leagues.

New Orlean Saints, DST6 (41.8%)

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Yes, the Saints looked like garbage last week on defense. Let’s not forget that their best two corners were out. Pay attention to the injury report here – their defense relies on Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley. This Stream-O-Matic ranking also relies on these two.

As for the matchup, the Panthers are a weird case for opposing fantasy defenses. The chart depicts a team that throws picks and takes sacks. However, remember that these are ‘rate stats’. The Panthers are not a heavily passing offense, but when they do pass they aren’t very efficient. So the key for this streaming option to work will be to force Carolina to throw more than normal. How do you do that? By beating the tar out of them in the first half.

I believe the Saints are that much better than the Panthers. If it’s known that the cornerbacks are healthy, I am confident in the Saints at home to take control of this game early. This should be conducive for a nice fantasy day for New Orleans. The No. 6 ranking may be a little bold, but a top 12 finish is certainly possible.

Chicago Bears, DST7 (29.0%)

The Bears are those lovable losers that you can see succeeding in the near future with pieces they have in place. However, the thing about the Bears defense this year is that they have never been in good situations. That’s easy to see from a 3-8 team with two overtime wins. This is a solid defense and I want to see them thrive in a matchup that sets up well for them.

Welcome to Chicago, 49ers!

The 49ers have been a subpar offense all season and now we get a quarterback change and it’s all better? Jimmy Garropollo should be better than C.J. Beathard, yes. On the other hand, they’re still out Pierre Garcon and have a porous offensive line. There’s no reason to be scared of this matchup and Chicago should be a great streaming option for Week 13.

Tennessee Titans, DST8 (21.3%)

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Unlike the Bears, the Titans have not shown a ton of promise on defense this season. Consistency has been the issue, and there’s been no rhyme or reason to when they decide to look bad.

Well, fortunately for them, the Texans offense has been consistently terrible since Deshaun Watson blew out his knee. I usually don’t condone playing bad defenses in good matchups, but geez Louise if there was ever a time. Tom Savage is a fantastic player for opposing defenses and this week should be no different.

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The Titans are my Stream of the Week and are readily available (albeit not as available as I thought they’d be).


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

Follow me on Twitter at @therealwody. For all the latest news and best advice out there, like us on Facebook, Google+ and Instagram.

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