Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 14 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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There have been Stream-O-Matic’s in the past and there will be more all the way through Week 17. This, though, is the most important one of the season. You are likely in the first week of your playoff matchup or trying to avoid a league punishment by coming in last place. Whatever the case may be, you can’t fail your DST slot this week and I’m here to guide you through it.

But first, here’s what stood out to me in Week 13:

  • The Miami Dolphins posted the high score of Week 13 against the putrid Denver offense. They absolutely stuffed the stat-sheet with three picks, three sacks, two safeties, a blocked punt, and a touchdown to ice the cake. This was more of a ‘Broncos suck against everyone’ thing. Do not be the fool that streams them against the Patriots on Monday Night Football.
  • I really thought their game would be a low-scoring battle of wits, but the Ravens really took it to Detroit on their home turf. They forced three turnovers and two sacks along with a touchdown in a fantastic performance to keep them in the playoff discussion. However, I would be quite averse to streaming them versus Pittsburgh this week.
  • The old ‘stream your defense against Cleveland’ adage worked to perfection last week. The Chargers largely shut down the Browns other than a couple of long throws to you-know-who. Otherwise, all that was missing for a big day was a score of some sort. If you were lucky enough to acquire them last week, keep the train chugging with a matchup against the Redskins up next.

Are you ready to dominate your defense streaming?

2017 Fantasy Football Week 14 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Steelers81.9BAL50329232527121.0
2Jaguars97.9SEA5025.513123231118.5
3Chargers85.9WAS502823102922117.0
4Vikings74.2CAR0023192520.526113.5
5Bengals46.5CHI5031242215.515112.5
6Packers14.0CLE0025.525321316111.5
7Bills14.8IND5027321911.514108.5
8Broncos63.0NYJ50182714.51921104.5
9Patriots60.1MIA0030123017.513102.5
10Texans62.2SF5020.5211820.517102.0
11Cardinals38.7TEN501018298.52898.5
12Rams82.7PHI5013.5164.5302998.0
13Browns1.3GB5011312462097.0
14Ravens84.8PIT003326313295.0
15Jets2.9DEN0019263151192.0
16Titans54.6ARI0020.5202711.51291.0
17Seahawks88.7JAX0015.5814.5272590.0
18Bears40.1CIN006.52217231987.5
19Colts0.6BUF001730214981.0
20Eagles88.5LAR00976283080.0
21Saints39.2ATL0012513242377.0
22Lions66.2TB0024101126677.0
2349ers2.7HOU0013.529281.5476.0
24Cowboys12.2NYG002914817.5775.5
25Panthers67.5MIN5015.523222469.5
26Giants9.0DAL506.5152031059.5
27Chiefs61.3OAK50226167359.0
28Buccaneers19.3DET50528910259.0
29Falcons19.0NO5084214841.0
30Dolphins8.4NE50111115.5538.5
31Redskins11.2LAC002178.51836.5
32Raiders32.6KC004174.51.5128.0

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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The Stream-O-Matic does not have a definitive defensive struggle in mind this week. So, to its rescue, I have chosen a game of my own that I believe will be low scoring. (This never turns out well, so take it with a grain of salt if you must! Just look at last week’s choice with the Ravens and Lions…)

Something tells me that this JaguarsSeahawks matchup will be defense-centric. Both squads have strong DST units and are almost matchup proof. The Jaguars have been a resident at the top of the Stream-O-Matic charts and now is no time to get cute. The Seahawks should be able to handle a Blake Bortles-led offense and Leonard Fournette has only averaged 2.9 YPC since returning from injury four weeks ago.

The point total here should be in the high 30’s and that’s conducive to nice fantasy outings.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

This game features two teams that are frequent inhabitants of the ‘shootout of the week’ honor. The Chiefs and Raiders face off on Sunday in the battle of failing defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom quadrant of DVOA rankings and their opposing matchup gives them no break.

The Raiders should be coming back to full strength in Week 14. Michael Crabtree will return from another Aqib Talib-related incident leading in suspension. Amari Cooper should be returning from injuries to his head and ankle. The Raiders fared alright against the Giants last week without these assets. For Derek Carr and the Oakland offense, the good fortune should return against this shoddy Kansas City squad.

The Chiefs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Jets last week after a few yucky performances. Sure, they lost that game, but the promise was shown. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce balled out like they did early on in the year, which was great to see again. It certainly doesn’t bode well for the Raiders if those two guys are on.

Basically, if you play either of these defenses, you are in for some trouble. Big time.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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I have touched on both of these teams in the shrugging section of this article this season. The Giants and Cowboys have been regulars here and I have no reason to believe this week will be any different.

The Cowboys have been largely inconsistent since Ezekiel Elliott‘s absence started. Last week they finally had their coming out party, but how much of that was attributed to the poor play of their Washington counterpart?

On the New York side, I mean, what else can you really say? What started as a simple train wreck has manifested into a beautiful, full-blown dumpster fire. They fired their coach and GM this week, but this could be something that motivates the players to perform better as weird as that sounds. It doesn’t hurt that play-calling can only improve with the firing of Ben McAdoo.

Have I mentioned that the author is a Giants fan?

Notables

Green Bay Packers, DST6 (14.0%)

“The Chargers have a defense. The Chargers play the Browns in Week 13. Therefore, you must play the Chargers defense this week to assure you a spot or win in the playoffs.”

Here’s what I typed into reality last week. Just exchange ‘Chargers’ with ‘Packers’ and all will be glorious, right?

Right. Wait, did you think I was going to contradict myself with the way that was worded? Nah, just wanted to type more filler words. Anyway, are we really going to abandon a method that has worked all season long. Hell, not even just this season, it’s worked for many consecutive seasons now.

I’m streaming any defense against DeShone Kizer until he shows me otherwise. The Pack are widely available and should be highly owned at week’s end.

Buffalo Bills, DST7 (14.8%)

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Admittedly, I’m worried about this one. In normal circumstances, I would be all over the Bills as a top 10 option. The Colts offense has been great for opposing defenses. The offensive line is abysmal and keeps Jacoby Brissett from reaching his potential. Shoot, I thought they even looked pretty good against the Patriots last week all things considered!

If you are waiting for the catch, I only need one name: Nathan Peterman. While the replacement for Tyrod Taylor doesn’t play defense, he could be putting them in awful situations frequently. We only have the one half of football to go off of against the Chargers, but geez it was about as terrible as one could possibly go for a quarterback. And the worst part was that the defense kept getting the worst of it since the Chargers kept getting great field position.

The Colts defense has been playing better as of late and can certainly capitalize on bad quarterback play. That could put the Bills defense in bad positions on multiple occasions this Sunday. I would go as far to say that the Bills would drop out of the top 12 for me if Taylor has to sit out. Tread lightly here.

Arizona Cardinals, DST11 (38.7%)

Don’t look now, but the Cardinals are starting to look like a good defense again.

Wait, so you read that sentence and go over to whatever site you play fantasy on to see that the Arizona defense is pretty low in the rankings. However, this is one of those cases where the reality has been better than the fantasy side for this team. DVOA pegs them as a top five defense overall.

Furthermore, the Cardinals are 4th in rush defense by DVOA standards, which is important when playing the Titans. Tennessee relies on its ‘smash mouth’ nature to open up the field. When it can’t do that, the bad decisions start coming from Marcus Mariota. If Arizona can stay true to its solid rush defense, the opportunities for turnovers and sacks should follow.

This is a gut feeling for me, but I like the Cardinals as a top eight defense this week. If it’s too risky for you in your fantasy playoffs, then try playing them in DFS tournaments instead as a low-owned commodity that could explode.

Week 15 Preview

Although I preach just holding one defense throughout the season and streaming the position, the playoffs are different. I am of the belief that if you have a fringe flex player you don’t plan on playing, go ahead and stash a defense that you could play in Week 15.

For those with bye weeks, don’t sit back and relax yet. This could be the most important week of pickups for your squad, especially on defense. While everyone else is worrying about this week, you can be making additions for Week 15 and potentially Week 16. Be sure to follow their dropped players too to see if they drop a defense with a bad matchup this week but better ones in the future.

Here are the way-too-early Stream-O-Matic rankings of the top 12 defenses in Week 15:

  1. Jaguars (vs. HOU)
  2. Ravens (@ CLE)
  3. Panthers (vs. GB)
  4. Saints (vs. NYJ)
  5. Broncos (@ IND)
  6. Vikings (vs. CIN)
  7. Rams (@ SEA)
  8. Lions (vs. CHI)
  9. Eagles (@ NYG)
  10. Bears (@ DET)
  11. Redskins (vs. ARI)
  12. Colts (vs. DEN)

Obviously, the Panthers defense having a solid matchup will be dependent on the availability of Aaron Rodgers. My focus will be on stashing the Lions, Bears, Redskins, and Colts. Then, I will be hoping that one of those better defenses gets dropped.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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