Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 16 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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Well, I just finished all four seasons of BoJack Horseman (to this point). Any chance I had of writing an interesting introductory paragraph got shot when my mind had to take in the complexity of the show’s fourth season.

But hey, that saves you some time, right? You got bigger fish to fry – like winning a fantasy football CHAMPIONSHIP. Or even avoiding your last place (dis)honor. Whatever it is, you know the drill! Time to find that perfect streaming defense for you this week.

But first, let’s backtrack to the week that was Week 15:

  • The Minnesota Vikings defense was as advertised, holding the Bengals to just seven points and scoring a touchdown. Now that Aaron Rodgers is placed on Injured Reserve, Minnesota DST becomes a top streaming option against the Packers in Week 16.
  • Speaking of the putrid Bengals offense, they are becoming a whipping boy for opposing fantasy defenses. This makes the Detroit Lions an interesting play. Detroit DST picked off three passes in Week 15 against the Bears en route to a top 10 performance.
  • Houston was absolutely embarrassed by the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last weekend, which has been a common theme for most offenses this season. Next up is a revitalized 49ers offense under Jimmy Garappolo. The chart has Jacksonville DST lower than normal, but there’s realistically only a couple of units I would start over them.
  • Well, the Kansas City Chiefs defense made me look dumb last week. They handled Philip Rivers and the Chargers, turning them over four times and garnering a couple of sacks. This week is a little easier for them with a matchup looming against a dejected Jay Cutler and the Dolphins.

Now, time to see how Week 16 shapes up for your championship hopes & dreams!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 16 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Ravens90.2IND503232123131143.0
2Vikings83.9GB002931262128135.0
3Bears29.1CLE5027.323322621134.3
4Steelers71.9HOU0026.330282419127.3
5Rams79.2TEN0021.517293029126.5
6Chargers68.8NYJ0025.327192725123.3
7Jaguars98.2SF002020153232119.0
8Redskins38.3DEN5020.526301220113.5
9Eagles88.9OAK5024.35142927104.3
10Patriots57.9BUF5029.5281713.59102.0
11Panthers61.6TB5026.3121122.524100.8
12Lions60.1CIN0020.8242228599.8
13Chiefs46.1MIA5029.5133117.5197.0
14Saints80.6ATL5017.5418252695.5
15Cowboys21.6SEA5019.31916191593.3
16Seahawks84.1DAL0010.8142122.52290.3
17Broncos71.3WAS0015.8228202388.8
18Cardinals34.7NYG5021.310109.53085.8
19Browns4.5CHI0012212741680.0
20Giants6.1ARI0016.329251475.3
21Bengals43.8DET5012.325981170.3
22Texans49.9PIT507.532311655.5
23Dolphins9.6KC005184161053.0
24Buccaneers6.6CAR003.516247252.5
25Titans44.2LAR507.39513.51251.8
26Jets3.2LAC501011351751.0
27Bills30.2NE001.511117.51849.0
28Packers26.8MIN507.8669.51448.3
29Colts1.5BAL003.38206845.3
30Falcons30.3NO006.523151339.5
3149ers2.6JAX5014772338.0
32Raiders9.4PHI004.81523731.8

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

In what is a first in Stream-O-Matic history, there will be no Snoozefest pick this week. There aren’t any close games between stinkers this week, which is kind of disappointing. There is projected to plenty of blowouts and shootouts this week though, so let’s get to that instead! Sorry to leave you hanging here.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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Our only 50-point total or more this week lies in the Superdome where the Saints are a 5.5 point favorite against the Falcons.

The Falcons won this matchup 20-17 at home a couple of weeks ago. It was a Thursday night game where Alvin Kamara left the game early due to injury. Personally, I’m banking on this game hitting that 50-point threshold. Both teams are coming off nice performances and neither defense played particularly well against subpar competition.

This should be a slugfest between two teams fighting for playoff positioning. I want nothing to do with these defenses.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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There were plenty of games that could have been placed here. However, the one I best saw fit was the Cowboys hosting the Seahawks.

Seattle just got destroyed by Todd Gurley and the Rams. Dallas won on some controversial happenings against the Raiders and they get Ezekiel Elliott back. Both teams are jockeying for that final playoff spot and anything goes right?

I believe this will be a very competitive game, which shows you how much better the top teams in the NFC are than the average ones. Without a shadow of doubt, I am avoiding both of these defenses like the plague. This game has a higher probability of becoming a shootout than a snoozefest, but hey, just shrug them shoulders.

Notables

Chicago Bears, DST3 (29.1%)

Here we go again – time to pick on the Browns!

This week, we get a Bears defense that, despite having to deal with a Trubsiky-led offense, is a solid unit. DVOA almost has them in their top 10 and they have score the 7th most fantasy points in standard formats. I’m actually a bit surprised that they are only a 6.5 point favorite this week and believe they can make this game ugly for Browns fans. Granted, Browns fans are used to ugly so it’s all relative.

So, we all know the Browns offense has been easy to stream against. I have used almost every stat in the book to prove this over the course of the season. My newest one – Cleveland has had multiple turnovers in all but three games in 2017. They have also had multiple sacks in all but two games this year. If multiple sacks and multiple turnovers is your floor, well, you do the math.

In my humble opinion, I believe the Bears defense has the highest floor and ceiling in Week 16.

Washington Redskins, DST8 (38.3%)

Embed from Getty Images

Alright, the Redskins proved me right last week! They posted a top five week against an Arizona offense that they should have posted a top five week against. Despite their defensive woes in the eight games prior to that, they largely shut down the Cardinals offense. Multiple turnovers and five sacks will definitely help there!

Now they get an even better matchup! The Broncos are in the bottom five in both sacks allowed and interception rate. Don’t let last week fool you – the Broncos offense still sucks. The Colts defense is just bad enough to make Denver look pedestrian offensively. I mean, they let Brock Osweiler rush for a touchdown. I’m not talking a QB sneak either; this was a legitimate 18-yard scamper from a lanky dude who ran a 4.83 40 at his physical peak.

I know Washington’s defense isn’t that hot, but surely they can limit Denver here. I agree with the top 8 ranking here and you should stream them with confidence.

Arizona Cardinals, DST18 (34.7%)

I know, the Cards are ranked rather low this week by Stream-O-Matic standards. The Giants offense is coming off their best game of the season and almost won the game against the potential No. 1 seed Eagles. What gives?

Well, Arizona’s defense has been playing extremely well since their bye week. DVOA shot them all the way up to 3rd this week after residing in the bottom half of the league for the first half of 2017. Despite this, their fantasy scoring hasn’t been all that hot. Specifically, their turnover numbers are below average as well. Enter the Giants, who are averaging 1.5 turnovers a game in their last seven contests. Think about their performance last week in a different light – the Giants played their best game offensively all year, right? The Eagles still finished in the top half of the fantasy defense pool.

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You have a good floor here considering the Eagles defense is not as polished as the Cardinals defense. I would rank the Cardinals as a top 10 option this week. For relativity’s sake, I would play them over the aforementioned Eagles along with the Panthers, Lions, and Chiefs.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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