Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 2 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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Oh man, I was worried about Week 1 of the Stream-O-Matic without any sample size. I was using statistics from last year and adding my own input to smooth things over in the descriptions.

Well, it turned out to be one of the more successful charts I have had since I started this thing. How exciting!

Sure, the calls weren’t that difficult. The Steelers, Rams, and Bills were all favorites of mine and helped many people win fantasy matchups last week. The Packers and Falcons were serviceable while the Colts were a dud.

It wasn’t without its misses, but, all in all, I’m thoroughly pleased with how Week 1 of the chart turned out. However, it’s important that I continue to add a human element to it as the sample size progresses. I’m still using stats from last year plus Week 1 to avoid overreacting to one week of information. Therefore, I will be talking about more defenses than usual to try to cover all the bases.

This week is a weird one outside of the top 5 in the chart, so pay close attention to things like injury updates and roster changes as the week strings along to make the right defensive decision.

2017 Fantasy Football Week 2 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: None!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Seahawks100.0SF5015.53013--3295.5
2Ravens15.8CLE50153219--2192.0
3Cardinals97.4IND00142721--2890.0
4Raiders4.1NYJ50161932--1587.0
5Panthers99.8BUF5014.5317--2683.5
6Redskins1.9LAR006.52931--1076.5
7Giants46.3DET5011.520.510--2976.0
8Chargers21.5MIA50122327--875.0
9Cowboys7.6DEN0510.32411--2070.3
10Bengals62.8HOU5012.5925--1768.5
11Broncos100.0DAL558144.5--3066.5
12Texans100.0CIN008.5266--2565.5
13Dolphins2.9LAC0061730--1164.0
14Buccaneers2.5CHI5013.3829--762.3
15Steelers63.8MIN5013.3222--1961.3
16Chiefs99.1PHI50111017--1861.0
17Rams39.7WAS509412--3161.0
18Jaguars82.8TEN507.51214--2260.5
19Bears1.3TB005.51626--1259.5
20Patriots96.2NO0010.3515.5--2757.8
21Bills15.8CAR00320.528--455.5
22Vikings99.1PIT002.3224--2351.3
23Colts0.6ARI502.31822--350.3
24Eagles14.6KC003.5138--2448.5
2549ers0.9SEA0012815.5--246.5
26Titans6.7JAX009.51120--646.5
27Packers6.6ATL004253--1345.0
28Lions1.5NYG004.8323--1444.8
29Falcons16.0GB507154.5--940.5
30Browns1.2BAL004.8718--534.8
31Jets0.7OAK000.519--1626.5
32Saints1.1NE501.561--114.5

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

Week 1’s Thursday Night Football game is as good as it’s ever going to get. The Patriots-Chiefs matchup set the bar high and now we can only brace for constant let downs.

Letdown No. 1 – Texans at Bengals, Week 2.

Did you watch these offenses last week? I feel like I shouldn’t waste any time here breaking this game down. Andy Dalton looked like hot garbage and is terrible in prime time games. The Texans are starting a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week. Don’t overthink this one: both teams are more than viable this week as defense streaming options.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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There were no barn burners last week. It was frustrating to watch for fantasy owners hoping for some high point totals. This week, there are two games that I will give a tie to for the highest-flyest game of the week.

With the Patriots traveling to New Orleans, we get two perfect case scenarios for the offenses. The Saints get to play at home in the Superdome, where they are notorious for lighting up the scoreboard. The Patriots get to play a horrendous defense that just yielded two WR1’s on Monday Night Football in their first game of the year. Last time these two teams played, it was a 30-27 thriller in 2013. I’m expecting a similar score this time around.

Secondly, I wanted to give the Packers-Falcons matchup a shout out. Two teams in the bottom six of the Stream-O-Matic chart should make for a fast-paced, offensive game. The Falcons defense looked decent against a bad Chicago offense last week, but the Bears don’t have anything close to the talent that Green Bay has. Similarly, the Packers didn’t play too bad against Seattle, but the Seahawks don’t compare favorably to the Falcons on offense. This is a rematch of a 44-21 Falcons playoff victory from last year and I anticipate this game going over the 54.5 Vegas point total.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

I have no idea what to think of this Steelers-Vikings battle. I would like to think that the defenses could hold serve, but there are multiple factors that give me a reason for doubt.

The Vikings looked incredible offensively on Monday night. Sure, a good portion of that was the aforementioned Saints defense. However, I like to also think that Sam Bradford is becoming a master of this offense. He spread the ball around extremely well and was dropping dimes when the pressure was heavy. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs look like one of the stronger 1-2 punches in the league and the running game looked serviceable.

Meanwhile, the Steelers didn’t look so hot. I’m going to chalk it up to rust and being on the road, which they won’t be this week. I’m believing in a strong bounce back performance for guys like LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. If you absolutely have to play the Vikings defense, I don’t mind it considering Ben Roethlisberger is always a candidate to throw picks.

For the most part, though, I am staying away from the defenses in this matchup.

Notables

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Baltimore Ravens, DST2 (15.8%)

What’s not to love here? The Ravens are coming off of a strong showing against the Bengals on the road. Now, they attract a matchup against the Browns at home. I know, DeShone Kizer actually looked competent last week. He’s still a rookie, they are still the Browns, and I still want all the Ravens’ shares I can get this week.

Oakland Raiders, DST4 (4.1%)

Can I just make the same argument here for the Jets as I did the Browns? The Raiders didn’t do as poorly last week against the Titans as I thought they would, thus leading me to believe that they can handle a matchup with the lowly Jets offense. I love the edge rushers for Oakland in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin. They will wreak havoc on an anemic offensive line and stop the running game lead by Matt Forte for some reason. This is easy money right here.

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Washington Redskins, DST6 (1.9%)

Just as I warned last week, the Colts were pounded by the Rams throughout the game. This proved my theory that not all defenses can take advantage of a good matchup.

The Redskins get this same matchup in Week 2 and, although I believe that the Redskins have a much better defense than Indy, I am not sold on the high ranking here. The Washington secondary looks lost outside of Josh Norman. This doesn’t bode well for Sammy Watkins this week, but the supporting cast looked good last week (specifically Cooper Kupp). This defensive front is average at best and gives the Rams a chance to run the rock with Todd Gurley again.

The one positive is that game flow is in the favor of Washington. If they can get out ahead, I could see the Redskins finishing as a top 10 option. If you like the chances of Washington leading for most of the game, then be confident in their defense to hold the lead.

New York Giants, DST7 (46.3%)

Here’s another head-scratcher. Yes, the Giants defense looked very good in a contest where game flow was not nearly in their favor. However, the Lions scare me after what Matthew Stafford did in the fourth quarter last week.

If we are getting the Detroit that played the first 45 minutes of Week 1 and Odell Beckham Jr. returns, perhaps the Giants defense could be a top 8 play. If it were me though, I would certainly check the waiver wire for better options.

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Los Angeles Chargers, DST8 (21.5%)

This game is a little weird too. The Dolphins will be amped to start their season after a postponed game in Week 1, but they could also be rusty. Specifically, Jay Cutler still hasn’t played a real game in quite some time. I liked what I saw from the Chargers defense in the second half last week and I expect that to carry over into Week 2. I’m calling for at least two picks from Cutler and a few sacks.

Dallas Cowboys, DST9 (7.6%)

If you are in an absolute bind and don’t feel like spending the waiver claim on one of the better streaming options, the Cowboys can be sneaky relevant this week. They just held the Giants (albeit sans OBJ) to 7 points in the opener and bullied their offensive line. I didn’t see anything too impressive with Denver’s offense in the Monday night game; the Broncos just don’t turn the ball over much. Although there is a small range of outcomes, the floor is nice for the Cowboys and I don’t mind them as a spot start in a 12-team league.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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