Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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As we enter Week 3 of both the NFL season and the Stream-O-Matic chart, I wanted to note a few vital changes to the process that should help the chart progress.

Firstly, this will be the first week where I actually use the DVOA ratings from this year. Now that all 32 teams have played, it makes more sense to start using the statistics gained in the first two weeks. However, note that this is still a small sample size and I expect this chart to get worse before it gets better.

What I mean by that is that the sample will start becoming more believable by Week 5 in my estimation. For now, it doesn’t hurt to throw in the updated DVOA ratings and I will explain in the ‘Notables’ section if there are any discrepancies in the chart. (Actually, I’m using their DAVE ratings, which is a combination of their DVOA and preseason projections, but who’s asking?)

Secondly, I am using 2017 stats only for the oSAC% and oINT%. Up until this week, I had been using statistics for each team over the last eight games. Hopefully, we see some improvement in the chart ratings, especially since the ‘last eight games’ method doesn’t account for coaching and player personnel changes.

Finally, I will definitely not be using the FPPG column just yet. I’ll most likely start using it next week, but I’m still working out some kinks. What scoring format do I want to use? Which format is the most common among all platforms? These are the questions that I will need to research within the next week or so.

As for now, I’m refusing to put Tampa Bay as the top fantasy scoring defense after one game. I need a little bit more to work with, especially when there are no adjustments like you get in the DVOA ratings.

Now that I’ve got all that off my chest, I present to you the Stream-O-Matic chart for Week 3!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: None!

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Packers9.9CIN5014.32931--26105.3
2Patriots90.6HOU50153215--3097.0
3Eagles14.3NYG5012.52823--1987.5
4Rams34.1SF00112425--2181.0
5Colts0.3CLE508.83132--480.8
6Steelers56.4CHI0013.51121.5--3278.0
7Ravens50.7JAC0013627--3177.0
8Bills1.5DEN506.32526--1375.3
9Cowboys13.3ARI008.81329--2373.8
10Browns1.0IND009.53030--170.5
11Raiders23.7WAS0072013--2969.0
12Broncos100.0BUF00122318--1568.0
13Dolphins3.6NYJ0014.31824--965.3
14Titans5.9SEA5010.5215--2061.5
15Giants40.6PHI003.82221.5--1259.3
16Chargers22.8KC505275--1759.0
17Falcons9.3DET007.814.514--2258.3
18Jaguars96.1BAL505.51128--857.5
19Lions3.2ATL503195--2557.0
20Saints0.6CAR001.82616--649.8
21Seahawks100.0TEN006.3312--2849.3
22Chiefs100.0LAC0010210--2749.0
23Bengals67.1GB001.81719--1148.8
24Panthers100.0NO5011.515--2446.5
25Cardinals100.0DAL504.5520--1044.5
2649ers0.7LAR507.8917--341.8
27Vikings99.3TB50OFF14.55--1438.5
28Redskins2.0OAK502.545--1834.5
29Bears1.0PIT501711--731.0
30Buccaneers7.7MIN00OFF85--1629.0
31Jets0.7MIA503.8115--226.8
32Texans100.0NE000.5165--526.5

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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Serta should sponsor this Jaguars and Ravens contest because I’m going to need something to sleep on after the first couple of drives! Seriously though, these two teams are very similar and not in a good way offensively. Both are very interception-prone and struggling with injuries early in the season.

On the Baltimore side, Joe Flacco is running out of options by the week. He could be without Terrance West and, more importantly, veteran lineman Marshall Yanda. This could spell doom for a team facing a front seven like Jacksonville has.

For the Jags, losing Allen Robinson was a huge blow, but they did have step-up games from Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee in Week 2 (albeit in garbage time against weak corners). I’m expecting a similar outcome for Jacksonville this week where the Ravens stack the box against Leonard Fournette and take their chances against Blake Bortles.

I’m expecting this game to go under on the 39 point total, which should tell you all you need to know about starting these defenses. I like the Ravens way more than the Jaguars, but both should be playable in 12-team leagues.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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In one of the few games I expect to go over 55 points this week, the Raiders will travel to DC to face the Redskins on Sunday Night Football. When I see the bookies giving a three-point advantage to the road team, I know exactly what they are thinking – the road team is much better but gets downgraded for travel.

Using this intuition, let’s script a game flow. The Raiders will jump out to a quick lead in the first quarter, which they are known for doing in the past two seasons under Derek Carr. The Redskins, who could be without Rob Kelley, decide to let Kirk Cousins take control and toss the rock at will to play catch-up. The Raiders secondary, who looked paltry at times against a Josh McCown-led offense last week, struggles to contain the talented receiving corps Washington has.

Regardless, any game script you write screams ‘shootout’ in this contest. This should be the most heavily stacked game for DFS and the defenses should absolutely be ignored for fantasy.

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Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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Unfortunately, two teams that the Stream-O-Matic likes to pick on are squaring off against each other this week. The Colts and Browns will determine which team is worse this week, which sounds more like a Snooze-a-palooza than a Shoulder-Shrugger.

However, for fantasy purposes, what do we do here? Do you roll the dice on either of these defenses, knowing that the offenses are that bad? Or do you ignore the game altogether?

All in all, I would prefer to just leave this game alone and not have any shares in a game this terrible. Do you really want to have to watch these two high school teams in the fourth quarter and hope one side pulls it out? I didn’t think so. Gun to the head, I would take the Colts because they are at home and that’s all I have to go by.

Notables

Green Bay Packers, DST1 (9.9%)

The only team that has failed to meet offensive expectations worse than the Giants has to be the Bengals. As the second highest favorite this week, the Packers should have their way with the Bengals defense. Vegas has the projected score at 26.25-18.25, which would put Cincinnati as the second lowest scorer of the week.

I’m not completely sold on the Packers defense yet. They’ve held a terrible Seattle offense to 9 and allowed an electric performance to Atlanta to this point. Nothing special by any means! However, with the Bengals being the only other team besides the 49ers who haven’t scored a touchdown yet, I think the matchup is safe enough to roll out Green Bay’s defense with confidence.

Philadelphia Eagles, DST3 (14.3%)

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Did you watch that Monday Night Football game in Week 2? Yeah, the Giants look horrid on offense and will be on a short week. As a Giants fan, I know the damage that this Philly team has done to Eli Manning in years past all too well. Below is a chart that shows a couple of recent game logs and an average game for Eli and the Giants in Philadelphia over his career.

 COMPATTYDSTDINTSACTeam Pts
201524381891237
2016386335613019
Career22.837.4247.31.51.32.317.7

Do any of those numbers convince you? Add on top of that just how horrendous the Giants have looked and this could be a blowout game for the Eagles defensive unit. Don’t forget too that, with all of these stops, Darren Sproles should have the potential for a few nice punt returns as well.

Miami Dolphins, DST13 (3.6%)

If the Bills and Raiders can be a productive defense against the Jets, I think just about anyone can. Yes, that includes you Miami! The Jets moved the ball at times last week, but it wasn’t pretty. I liked the way that Jay Cutler and the Dolphins offense looked last week outside of one, umm, errant Hail Mary attempt. The Jets should be playing catch-up early and often, which bodes well for a defense that wants to pin its ears back.

Los Angeles Rams, DST4 (34.1%)

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You or your colleague probably dropped the Rams last week since they had a tougher matchup. Now it’s time to scoop them right back up! We all know how much of a stinker these Thursday Night Football contests usually are. With a battle against the 49ers on the horizon, the Rams should be an easy stream.

Everyone knows that San Francisco has failed to score a touchdown in 2017 thus far. Odds are that they will score one in this game, but I am not expecting much more from such an anemic offense. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Aaron Donald is returning to an already stacked defensive line.

Dallas Cowboys, DST9 (13.3%)

So, I use the chart last week to suggest streaming the Cowboys against the Broncos on the road. Boy, what a mistake that was, Stream-O-Matic! Surely, you won’t make that same mistake again.

What’s that? You’ve got the Cowboys rated highly on the road against Arizona? Nope, I’m out. With an indoor facility and an embarrassing secondary, the numbers don’t add up here for Dallas. I’m not saying they will lose on Monday Night Football, but I don’t think their defense does much here. Save them for your deeper leagues or DFS lineups.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DST30 (7.7%)

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Tampa certainly stepped up defensively last weekend in a plus matchup. Now they’ll get the Vikings on the road for their second game of the season. Admittedly, I’m not too sold on this streaming option, especially if Sam Bradford makes himself available to play.

By the way, the ‘OFF’ in the Vegas column stands for ‘off the board’, which means that the bookies are delaying their line-setting. They want to see if Bradford plays, which is what you should do too before streaming Tampa’s defense. Even then, the opportunities for turnovers will not make themselves as prevalent as they did with Chicago.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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