Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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It was a hit-or-miss week to the extreme last week for the Stream-O-Matic. No matter – just a minor speed bump in what should be an ever-improving chart in the coming weeks. Some interesting notes from Week 5:

  • The Dolphins and Titans were the actual snoozefest of the week, which shouldn’t have been hard to predict. However, the chart only had statistics for Marcus Mariota instead of Matt Cassel. In the future, perhaps I should consider using career INT% for the opposing quarterback on the chart instead of using a team’s INT% for a season. Something to ponder!
  • The Jaguars are this year’s version of the 2016 Vikings. Elite players on defense and a new coaching regime have turned this unit into an immovable force. They get the Rams and Colts before a bye week in Week 8. More on them later.
  • Ravens continue to be a fun streaming option in the right matchup. Their next few weeks look tasty too so make sure they are not sitting on your waiver wires.
  • It’s been a fall from grace for the Cardinals as they yield 34 points to the Eagles. More on them later.
  • The Chiefs have been a top 10 option despite having a brutal schedule. Things are easier the next few weeks with the Steelers, Raiders, and Broncos on the horizon.

The Stream-O-Matic and this author are ready for a bounce back in Week 6. Let’s hop to it!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

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Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Texans81.0CLE501314282124105.0
2Ravens73.3CHI5012.57252727103.5
3Broncos92.8NYG501412142926100.0
4Redskins5.1SF50121712232998.0
5Jaguars77.4LAR501039323291.0
6Steelers86.0KC004262302890.0
7Eagles59.9CAR005.52122211988.5
8Chiefs94PIT5010.8624211480.8
9Falcons12.9MIA5013.5161916978.5
10Panthers62.4PHI509.5158172175.5
11Rams32.4JAX006418242274.0
12Titans16.3IND507.327233.5772.8
13Dolphins13.7ATL000.5112618.51571.0
14Vikings93.3GB504227151770.0
15Bears2.1BAL0041027121669.0
16Browns4.1HOU002.3281514564.3
17Saints1.0DET508.82559.51063.3
18Lions58.4NO00312312562.0
19Chargers10.7OAK00518119.51861.5
20Buccaneers10.3ARI008.8201371159.8
21Cardinals71.7TB506.5510132059.5
22Bengals57.1------------273158.0
23Bills41.5------------273057.0
24Giants32.9DEN002.324202654.3
25Patriots50.0NYJ0011.523171153.5
26Packers21.6MIN0010.88218.51352.3
27Seahawks96.9------------252348.0
28Colts2.0TEN007.313213.5347.8
29Jets21.5NE501.51945.51247.0
30Raiders25.5LAC5082165.5238.5
3149ers11.4WAS001969.5833.5
32Cowboys8.2------------9.5413.5

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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My selection for this week’s snoozefest is between two squads that scare me. The Jaguars host the Rams in an afternoon game on Sunday.

Now, why do these teams scare me? If consistency is key, then these two teams would be locked out of whatever imaginary building we are talking about. Starting with Jacksonville, if you are a sucker for trends then sit them this week. Their points allowed in the last five weeks are 7-37-7-23-9. (That 23 came from the Jets so that should count as like 35!) So this week the Rams will score 30+, right? Joking aside, I will continue to roll the Jags out as a strong DST option with the highest upside in the league for points off turnovers.

The Rams defense has been extremely hot and cold. They are like that spouse of yours that can never keep the thermostat on one setting for more than 30 minutes. Despite a strong performance against Seattle in a loss, I’m not buying that the Rams defense has fully bounced back after yielding 30+ points in back-to-back games prior to Week 5. Furthermore, the Jaguars aren’t your same turnover-happy team from 2014-2016 under Blake Bortles. They are pounding the rock a league-high 56% of their plays, limiting the chances for giveaways. There are probably better options available on your waiver wire.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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Finally, a week that should be conducive to offense! Only four of the 14 games have an over/under of 44 or less. This gave me many options for the shootout of the week!

I will choose this Chargers and Raiders contest to blow up. Oakland just gave up 30 points to an awful Ravens offense. Facing Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon off strong games, I don’t expect Oakland to put up much of a fight defensively. Play your Chargers players – all of them!

The Chargers defensively have been average in 2017, but their performance against the Giants last week throws me off. They allowed decent rushing numbers to Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa, who were buried on their depth chart before that game. The Giants are in the bottom five of any rushing statistic you can find, so how were they having that much success? It honestly doesn’t matter who starts for the Raiders – the Chargers just aren’t going to give you much upside on defense.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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The Cardinals and Buccaneers have been shoulder-shruggers all season, so why change now?

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The Buccaneers offense gets Doug Martin back, who looked great last week in limited work. He should be unleashed in Week 6 and he could be the answer to their offensive issues. The Cardinals have looked average at best on defense and gave up some huge plays last week to the Eagles in a blowout loss. I would be dropping Arizona if there were better options available on the waiver wire.

No one should be considering the Buccaneers defense. Just don’t do it! Even if it is against an Arizona offense that has not been high-flying in previous weeks. Trading for Adrian Peterson may provide a spark for the Cardinals. It could also provide a distraction as it had for the Saints. Nonetheless, I would be surprised if Tampa Bay had answers in stopping this offense.

But, you know… ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Notables

Washington Redskins, DST4 (5.1%)

Where’s the love for the Redskins defense? I know they lost standout corner Josh Norman for an extended time, but let’s not overlook what this unit has accomplished thus far. They are in the top 10 in both FPPG and DVOA while having an offense that can put them in advantageous situations in the second half.

That should be no different in Week 6 as Washington will host San Francisco as a 10-point favorite. No one looks at the 49ers offense and becomes worried about any one player. Carlos Hyde is perpetually injured, Pierre Garcon has looked good but is not a No. 1 anymore, and some guy named George Kittle has emerged as the second-best receiving target. On the season, opposing defenses score about the same against the Niners as they do in the rest of their matchups. If you take out the Colts game last week (gosh, their defense sucks), you are looking at a double-digit scoring average.

There’s no reason for the Redskins not to be a top 10 option this week. They are coming off a bye, which gave them an extra week to figure out how to replace Norman and attack this offense. They have been a very consistent fantasy defense this year and I don’t expect that to change against the 49ers. The only reason they are low-owned is some combination of history and bye week.

Atlanta Falcons, DST9 (12.9%)

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The Dolphins have been a nightmare offensively thus far in 2017. Jay Cutler looks like he should have stayed in retirement, Jay Ajayi has been banged up and ineffective, and now DeVante Parker might have a serious injury. There have been talks of making a change at quarterback to Matt Moore although HC Adam Gase says not yet.

Just how fruitful have these Miami offensive woes been for opposing fantasy defenses? Well, it’s time for a chart!

TeamRank (FPPG)vs. MIAvs. Others
AVG25th9.05.1
Chargers22nd57.3
Jets26th144.8
Saints23rd154.0
Titans29th124.3

What this table tells me is that this offense is matchup-proof for DST units. If the 25th best defense on average can score four points more against Miami than in a normal matchup, you shouldn’t think twice about streaming against them. A 9.0 FPPG average would make a combined DST unit that would rank 12th in ESPN scoring – a 13-spot difference in ranking! (They would be worse than 25th too if they hadn’t played the Dolphins…)

Enter the Falcons! Coming off a bye, Atlanta will host the downward-spiraling Dolphins squad that will feel the pressure of performing after some putrid scoring outputs. Using common logic (which is risky in the fantasy world), since Atlanta averages 8.8 FPPG (16th), they should be able to at least get you double digits in this contest. This puts them in the top 10 easily with the potential for much more in Week 6.

Chicago Bears, DST15 (2.1%)

My deep-league, sneaky stream of the week resides in Chicago. They have impressed me thus far against efficient offenses and now attract a matchup where an offense is quite inefficient. The Ravens turn the ball over like no one’s business and that won’t be fixed anytime soon.

I don’t love the fact that the Bears are on a short week here. However, there are scenarios where adding the Bears as a bye week fill-in makes sense. With the Seahawks, Bengals, and Bills all on bye, the waiver wire in a 12- to 14-team league could be looking pretty sh-crappy. The Bears should finish in the top half of the DST units this week and if they can force a couple of turnovers we could be talking about a crafty top 10 scoring day.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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