Fantasy Football

Week 14 DFS Guide: Keeping it Rolling

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jim-moraWeek 14 is here and that means the Fantasy Playoffs have begun! it’s just another week for us DFS players. We’re sitting here on the money we’ve earned throughout the season echoing Jim Mora: “Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?” Let’s look to keep it rolling with another strong week, and finish the season on a good note.

Each week, this guide is going to list the best VALUE plays of the week. That means this won’t be strictly a list of the cream-of-the-crop (Brady, Bell, Beckham, etc). This guide will focus on guys with spectacular matchups that are likely to exceed expectations. We’re looking for the best bang for our buck, no matter the name.

Now let’s make some money!

Week 14 DFS Guide

In each of the tables accompanying the position analysis, you’ll find some of the most important factors to consider when choosing DFS plays. Prices, fantasy points per game (FPPG), opponents’ fantasy points per game allowed, and the projected Vegas Over/Under are all listed and ranked. You’ll also find the FantasyPros.com Expert Consensus ranking for each player – a quick way to determine how the best of the best of the fantasy community feel about that player this week.

Quarterbacks

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Andrew LuckINDvs HOU2$8200$6900
Russell WilsonSEA@GB5$7900$6600
Kirk CousinsWAS@PHI8$7600$6300
Jameis WinstonTBNO7$8200$6700
Carson PalmerARI@MIA19$7400$5700

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Fresh off opening a four touchdown flavored can of whoopass on the Jets, Luck draws the struggling Texans defense. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games. Meanwhile, Houston has allowed 10 passing touchdowns over their last four games.

In a game with a surprisingly high O/U (47.5), Luck will look to repeat his Week 13 performance.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Wilson didn’t post huge fantasy numbers last week in a blowout game, but bounced back from a horrendous Week 12 and played well. He completed 72% of his passes for 277 yards and one touchdown and interception each. His supporting cast is as healthy as it will ever be this year (minus CJ Prosise) and he’s finally flashing a little running ability again. He should easily build on those numbers against a Packers pass defense that is ranked 22nd by DVOA.

The Packers have given up 14 total touchdowns to quarterbacks in their last six games. They’ve allowed five out of their last six opposing quarterbacks to top 17.5 fantasy points, including Carson Wentz (!) and Brock Osweiler (!!!) in back to back games.

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

Facing a pass defense that is more reputation than substance, Cousins will look to continue his streak of seven games with multiple touchdowns — including Week 6 against the Eagles. Cousins had a down game in a tough matchup against Arizona, but before that had thrown for 1544 yards and 10 touchdowns in his previous four games. He is currently 8th in fantasy points per game and is getting star LT Trent Williams back from suspension.

Meanwhile, the Eagles pass defense has fallen apart since their hot start. In their last two games, Aaron Rodgers and an A.J. Green-less Andy Dalton both threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns. Expect the same, if not more, for Cousins.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston is beginning to hit his stride. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven games. The Bucs offensive coordinator recently said he was “disappointed” with their run game, suggesting Winston may see more opportunities.

That’s nothing but good news against a Saints pass defense that is 26th in DVOA. They’ve given up 10 touchdowns in their last five games, including two each to Colin Kaepernick, Trevor Siemian, and Jared Goff. In what is projected to be a high-scoring game (Vegas O/U: 51.5), Winston should have plenty of opportunity to shine.

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

The “tough” Miami defense will look to bounce back against the Cardinals this week after being flamed by Elite QB Joe Flacco for 381 yards and four touchdowns. However, looking at their schedule, their 13th ranked pass defense by DVOA was inflated by playing a slew of mediocre quarterbacks.  In their last three games not facing Jared Goff, Miami has given up 1,004 passing yards and 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

Palmer, who is in the midst of a very disappointing year, is coming off perhaps his best game this season. He threw for 300 yards, threw touchdowns, and shockingly no interceptions in a 31-23 victory against the Redskins. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last six and multiple touchdowns in four of his last five.

Running Backs

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
David JohnsonARI@MIA1$9700$9800
Devonta FreemanATL@LA8$7500$6100
Le'Veon BellPIT@BUF2$9000$9000
LeSean McCoyBUFvs PIT4$8300$8200
Matt ForteNYJ@SF9$7700$6800

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Another week, another great spot for David Johnson. If you run him out there, you know exactly what you’re getting: 125+ yards and a touchdown – and that’s on the conservative end.

The Dolphins are allowing 6.0 YPC in their last three games and have also given up the fifth most receptions to running backs in the last three weeks. They are 22nd in rush defense DVOA and may be missing two starting linebackers.

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Over the last three weeks, no team has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than the LA Rams. They’ve given up the most yards on the ground and have also been hurt through the air for 114 yards and two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Freeman has asserted himself as the leader of the Falcons backfield. Since Tevin Coleman’s return from injury, Freeman has out-touched him 37-24 including 11-5 in the redzone. That has led to four touchdowns in the last two games, and with Julio Jones a game time decision and Mohamed Sanu out, Freeman could be leaned upon heavily.

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Russell Westbrook of the NFL, Bell has an outrageous usage rate that makes him essentially matchup-proof. He has averaged 31 touches per game in his last four games. For context, Marcus Mariota averages 31.5 pass attempts per game. He’s turned those touches into an average of 21.98 fantasy points per game in that span.

The Bills’ defense is nothing to fear as they’ve given up the 5th most fantasy points to running backs over their last three games. They also may be without star defensive linemen Kyle Williams on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Since his three games since returning from injury, McCoy has averaged 6.5 YPC and scored three touchdowns. He has also piled up 134 and 191 total yards in his last two games. The Steelers have given up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the second most receiving yards. McCoy should be on the field plenty and receive the majority of passing down work, an area where goal-line vulture Mike Gillislee won’t impact.

Matt Forte, New York Jets

Forte has had an up and down season but remains 12th in fantasy points per game among running backs. His numbers in his last three games have been #notgood, but he’s been limited by bad matchups, gameflow, and bad quarterback play. In his last four games before this latest Ryan Fitzpatrick/Bryce Petty situation, he totaled 458 yards and scored five touchdowns.

This week, he draws the Niners run defense, which by any metric is the worst in the league. They’ve given up 10 total touchdowns to running backs over their last five, including three on the ground last week to Jordan Howard.

Wide Receivers

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Antonio BrownPIT@BUF2$8800$8700
Mike EvansTBvs NO1$8900$8900
T.Y. HiltonINDvs HOU6$7600$7500
Doug BaldwinSEA@GB9$7000$6800
Larry FitzgeraldARI@MIA10$6800$7100

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown has scored six touchdowns in his last five games. Meanwhile, the Bills have given up eight touchdown receptions to wide receivers in that same time period. With Ladarius Green emerging as a Martavis Bryant-esque vertical threat, Brown should find more room to operate and dominate as he did last year.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After being shut down in Week 13, Evans will be looking to bounce back in a big way. Delvin Breaux, ProFootballFocus’ 113th rated corner out of 123 will shadow Evans. This game has the week’s highest O/U and Evans is easily the Bucs’ most reliable touchdown scorer.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

Fresh off posting nine catches for 146 yards, Hilton draws a Texans defense that will be missing Jonathan Joseph. Hilton has been superb in games with Andrew Luck and is second in the league in yardage. The Texans have given up big wide receiver games recently and Hilton is due for one against a Texans team he historically torches.

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Although the Seahawks passing attack has been struggling, Baldwin has still been decent. He’s currently 19th in fantasy points per game among wide receivers and has at least six catches in five of his last seven games. He only has four touchdown catches on the season and three game in one game, so I expect the progression to the mean to kick in, especially as this offense gets healthier.

Baldwin will run the majority of his routes against converted safety Micah Hyde who grades as PFF’s 89th best corner out of 123. The Packers have given up the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers over their last five games.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

The third Cardinal to appear on this list, Larry Legend just keeps on producing. Like Baldwin, Fitz has steadily produced on a struggling pass attack. He has at least six catches in all but two games this year, and 9+ in four of his last six. Also like Baldwin, he hasn’t scored since Week 5. The touchdown progression to the mean is coming and what better team to come against than the team that just gave up two touchdowns to Dennis Pitta. The Dolphins have shown the weakness in their pass defense is in the middle of the field where Fitzgerald runs the majority of his routes.

Tight Ends

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Tyler EifertCIN@CLE3$6700$6000
Jimmy GrahamSEA@GB1$6600$5500
Delanie WalkerTENvs DEN4$6200$4400
Ladarius GreenPIT@BUF7$5800$3900
Zach ErtzPHIvs WAS8$5700$4900

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert is the number one option on an offense that even without A.J. Green showed some signs of life last week. He’s found pay dirt in three of his five healthy games, two of which came against elite tight end defenses (Baltimore and Philadelphia).

No one would classify Cleveland similarly, as they’ve given up the 4th most points to tight ends on the season, including a league leading nine touchdowns. They are 31st in tight end defense DVOA.

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

The Packers have given up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends including the 2nd most yards. They have a ton of injuries among their linebackers corps and Graham should take advantage. He leads the team in targets since Seattle’s Week 5 bye.

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

The one place Denver’s defense can be attacked is in the middle of the field where Travis Kelce was able to find success last week (8 catches, 101 yards). With the Denver secondary suffocating Tennessee’s boundary receivers, Marcus Mariota should look to Walker on the majority of his pass attempts. Walker has 75 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games.

Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers

Against the Giants, Green flashed the potential he showed at times in San Diego. He was a vertical spacer for this Steelers offense, much like how Martavis Bryant was used last year. Green is talented enough on his own, but with defenses keyed in on Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, he finds himself running free often. His 11 targets led the team last week.

The Bills aren’t a particularly good or bad matchup, but with 177 yards and a touchdown in two games in a high powered offense, Green’s price value makes him worth a look or two.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz has finally found his role in the Eagles’ offense. He’s garnered 47 targets in his last five games and turned them into 302 yards and two touchdowns.

He faces the Redskins who have surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends over the last five weeks. That includes 105/1 to Jared Cook, 69/1 to Kyle Rudolph, and 102/1 to Tyler Eifert.

Defense and Special Teams

For an in-depth look at the DST options this week, check out Tyler Thompson’s weekly “Stream-o-matic” piece.

TeamMatchupECR RankFanduel PriceDraftKings Price
Minnesota Vikings@JAC1$4800$3900
Cincinnati Bengalsvs MIA3$5000$3500
Detroit Lionsvs CAR6$4600$3600
Denver Broncosvs LA2$4900$3800
Atlanta Falcons@CIN9$4700$3100

Kickers

PlayerTeamMatchupECR RankFanduel Price
Matt PraterDETvs CHI6$4900
Stephen GostkowskiNEvs BAL8$4800
Matt BryantATL@LA2$5200
Justin TuckerBAL@NE5$5200
Adam VinatieriINDvs HOU3$5100

About Kevin Huo

Kevin is a fantasy football writer for Fantasy Six Pack. He considers every angle - whether statistical or theoretical - when weighing his options and isn't afraid to be a contrarian. You can follow him on Twitter: @KevinH_F6P

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