Fantasy Football

10 Things To Think About Heading Into Fantasy Football Week 4


We are now in the final week of the first quarter of the NFL season, Week 4. Bye weeks have started and that means we will not have some key players in our lineups. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins do not play this week.

At the quarterback position, we lose Cam Newton and Alex Smith. Newton and Smith rank 21st/22nd in pass attempts, but Newton’s three rushing TDs ranks him sixth at the QB position in fantasy points scored, while Smith ranks 19th.

Fantasy football owners will be without one of the leagues leading rushers, Christian McCaffrey (271 rushing yards) and future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson (236 rushing yards, ranks 5th). McCaffrey is also second in receptions by running backs with 22 catches.

Who will you turn to? Check out our Week 4 Rankings for help making that decision.

Not much is lost by way of the wide receiver position thankfully, despite the fact that Bengals WR Tyler Boyd and Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley were the two most popular waiver wire adds this week.

Jordan Reed has been healthy for three straight games, and a week off could keep him healthy for another three! Reed currently ranks ninth at the tight end position in standard and half PPR leagues. He has scored the seventh most points at the TE position in PPR leagues.

10 Things To Think About Heading Into Fantasy Football Week 4

Jarvis Landry + Baker Mayfield = Fantasy Gold

Oklahoma ranked in the top three in 2017 and 2016 in yards-per-attempt with Baker Mayfield as their QB. Through four preseason games and one regular season game, Mayfield’s yards-per-attempt is at 8.4. Taylor’s yards-per-attempt since 2016 is 6.7. Jarvis Landry is averaging a healthy 13.9 yards-per-reception so far this year, the highest of his career. The longest reception he has had in each game this year would all be in the top five of his longest gains from 2017.

Analysis: Landry appears to have been used in a limited role in Miami when he was capable of more. With a more aggressive QB going forward, Landry is showing he deserves to be in the mid-high WR2 discussion.

Alvin Kamara Catches Everything

Kamara has 111 receptions since Week 3 of 2017. This 16-game sample would put him second in 2017’s receptions leaders, one behind Jarvis Landry.

Analysis: Kamara will continue to be one the safest options week-to-week, even when Ingram returns. He’s in a great offense who loves to feature him in the passing game and at the goal-line. His ceiling and floor are among the highest at the position.

Tevin Coleman Better Standard Player Than PPR

Tevin Coleman has started eight games in his career. He has nine total receptions in those games. He has had 67 career receptions in a little over 3 years.

Analysis: This is a trend to monitor while Freeman is out. While Coleman is fine to play in season-long, there is concern in DFS when he’s not receiving much passing work.

Kareem Hunt Better Standard Player Than PPR

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Kareem Hunt is ninth among Chiefs’ offensive players in targets. Some running backs that have more targets than him: Ito Smith; Wayne Gallman; Chase Edmonds; James Develin; Marcus Murphy.

Analysis: Hunt’s role in KC’s passing offense is now a concern. Ware was in there during the two-minute drill and has more targets so far this year. Hunt will always be relevant as the goal-line back in this offense, but he has been inefficient and has limited passing-game involvement.

Matt Breida Earns 49ers RB1 Status

Matt Breida has six runs of more than 20 yards this year. That number would already rank 11th among running backs from last season.

Analysis: What Breida has been doing so far just isn’t sustainable, especially given that he shares a large amount of the work with Morris. Last year’s leader in runs of more than 20 yards was 12. He should still be rostered and considered as a flex and RB3, but he is unlikely to continue his crazy pace.

Amari Cooper Isn’t A Great Fantasy Football Option

Amari Cooper has had three games with more than five catches since Week 8 of the 2016 season. He’s had 3 games over 100 receiving yards since Week 8 of the 2016 season.

Analysis: As a guy who drafted Cooper, this is where I start to realize I may have made a bad decision. Cooper just doesn’t seem to be the guy we all hoped for when he entered the league and he’s wildly inconsistent. He did have a tough matchup, but the elite guys find ways to beat them.

Andrew Luck‘s Arm Strength Is A Problem

Andrew Luck’s yards-per-attempt is at 5.3 this season. In 12 career games where Luck threw for under six yards per attempt, he has averaged 13.56 fantasy points per game.

Analysis: Andrew Luck owners should start looking for other options at the position. He provides a low ceiling and you can probably find better streamers week-to-week. Probably the worst takeaway from Week 3 was watching Jacoby Brissett throw the Hail Mary and seeing Luck defend the decision based on his lack of arm strength.

Deshaun Watson + Will Fuller = Big Play Touchdowns

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Will Fuller is averaging 18.96 yards-per-catch and 21.55 PPR points-per-game when Watson plays. Watson is averaging 10.97 yards-per-attempt in his games with Fuller.

Analysis: While they won’t continue to be as efficient as they have been, it’s time to start buying into this connection. Watson is significantly better when Fuller is on the field and vice versa. Watson is a QB1 and Fuller is slowly moving into WR2 territory.

Adrian Peterson’s Value Is Tied to Game Script

Since leaving the Saints last season, Adrian Peterson’s fantasy performances have been determined by whether his team wins or not. He has averaged 20.5 PPR points-per-game when his team has won and only 4.85 when they have not.

Analysis: This provides another example of how Peterson will continue to be controlled by game flow. Peterson will struggle to be consistent all year, but in games where the Redskins are heavy favorites, you should consider playing him.

Cam Newton Is A Running Back Playing Quarterback

Over his last 16 regular season games, Cam Newton has carried the ball 153 times for 844 yards and nine touchdowns. Last year, he would’ve finished 20th in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns.

Analysis: He is an every-week starter. The offense has looked great under Norv Turner so far and they are using Cam as a goal-line back. It’s hard to find a RB2 who can throw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns.

Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Kyle Gahagan

A Statistics major in college, Kyle is looking to apply his knowledge of statistics and data to his love of fantasy football. Kyle has been playing fantasy football for over 10 years, with his interests mostly in redraft leagues and daily cash games. He believes in the hashtag #DropYourDefenseUntilSundayMorning and thinks you should, too.

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