Fantasy Football

2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: It’s A Trap!

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Fantasy Football ADP Analysis

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Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a great thing. It helps us know where to expect a player to be drafted in our leagues. This allows us to at least try to plan ahead while drafting our teams.

You like DeMarco Murray, but it’s only the second round. Well judging by the ADP we see he is on average being selected with pick 45. So you can likely wait at least another round to pick him up.

At the same time that ADP is also a terrible thing. Like Admiral Ackabar once said “It’s a trap!”. The reason is because the list that your host site uses to have you draft off of is usually organized by ADP for that particular site. This means that if a player is severely over-rated on that particular site than you might get tricked into picking him too early.

It can work the other way too. Some players are ranked so low, they go un-drafted. Great if you know about them, but if you are drafting by the list, you won’t know to draft them either.

Below I’m going to point out some players who are both over-rated and under-rated according to the ADP on FantasyPros.

One more quick thing before we begin. You should listen to The TE Position Preview episode of The Fantasy Six Pack Hour podcast. There David Gonos gives you a great tip for how to use the FantasyPros ADP chart to gain an advantage.

Fantasy Football ADP Analysis

* ADP numbers are based off standard league.

Under-Rated

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills (Overall ADP: 26, QB ADP: 12)

I sort of understand the reason why there is some hesitation to draft McCoy higher. Yes, there always appears to be an injury risk with him, but honestly what running back isn’t there one?

Look the fact of it is there is next to no competition to steal touches away from McCoy in Buffalo. Karlos Williams came into camp out of shape and got suspended four games. Mike Gillislee is set to be the backup for now, but he is just that, a backup.

The Bills then went out a signed Reggie Bush. Don’t get fooled, he is nothing more than an extra running back they needed for depth.

I would have no issues taking McCoy in the early-to-mid second round.

Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears (60, 23)

As a fellow Fantasy Six Pack writer, Keenan Keeling, said to me “The hate on Langford has gone too far”.

When he stepped in for Matt Forte last year he did nothing but perform.

I know people are slightly worried because the Bears drafted Jordan Howard.

I’m not. Howard is not even playing ahead of Carey or Rodgers right now in the preseason, so there is little reason to think he will affect Langford’s value right now.

I know I’ve said his ADP is 60. I have seen him go much lower than this in most leagues. So that is where the hate has definitely gone too far on a starting running back who appears to be one of the only ones who is not in a committee.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers (28, 14)

I know Keenan Allen has missed some time due to injury but are we really penalizing a player who got knocked out due to a lacerated kidney?

Do we all forget just how good he was before that? He was on pace to catch 134 passes, for 1450 yards and eight touchdowns.

Now he is being drafted on average in the third round. Ridiculous.

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals (56, 26)

The Cardinals should once again be on the of the premier offenses in the league. Floyd has been hyped before, only to disappoint. The second half of last season, when he was finally healthy, he was the Cardinals receiver you wanted.

This season with Larry Fitzgerald likely to take a step back after a resurgent 2015, Floyd should be even better.

In standard leagues his ADP should be at least a full round higher, if not two.

Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis Colts (174, 17)

Colby Fleener is getting all the attention after leaving for New Orleans.

We can’t forget about Fleener though. He is now going to have the tight end position to himself. With a returning Andrew Luck and still a lack of a running game there, Allen has the chance to be a great talent.

I’m not the only one who thinks this either as his expert consensus ranking for tight ends is 13.

 


Rishard Matthews, WR, Tennessee Titans (239, 74)

I wish Fantasy Pros would show me more recent ADP results. I firmly believe that this is because nobody even thought twice about Matthews when he signed for the Titans.

Now that Dorial Green-Beckham has been traded and Kendall Wright can’t get on the field, it has been Matthews and Tajae Sharpe who have stepped up.

Even though I think Matthews’s ADP has gone up over the last week or two overall, the main point here is he could still be grabbed at a great value if you are in leagues where people are not paying attention.

Don’t believe me, Adam Rank over at NFL.com thinks so too.

Over-Rated

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks (31, 13)

Rawls was great last year when he filled in for Marshawn Lynch. But there is a lot not to like about Rawls entering the 2016 season.

  • Coming off a broken ankle late in 2015.
  • Won’t see the field until the fourth and final preseason game, at best.
  • Seahawks drafted both C.J. Prosise and Alex Collins.
  • Christine Michael actually looks like he is going to get a lot of run with the first team, creating a committee approach with Rawls.

If you want to hope he comes back 100-percent and that none of those other running backs get meaningful time, go ahead and draft him. Otherwise I’m staying away.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers (36, 15)

Hyde is good. The 49ers on the other-hand, not so much.

They enter the season with Blane Gabbert as their quarterback. Their receiving corps is led by Torrey Smith, who to me is not a real No. 1.

This is going to lead to a lot of teams stuffing the box against the run. Not good news for Hyde, especially since he has the No. 26 ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (35, 18)

The news swirling around Benjamin at camp has me worried. There is always a bit of concern for somebody returning from an ACL injury like he had. Now his conditioning is being questioned. So much so that they are hoping to get him to the point where he can handle 30-35 snaps by the end of the preseason.

That doesn’t sound like somebody that is going to be fully ready by Week 1. Even worse is beat writers are stating that Devin Funchess, who was not good last season, could pass him on the depth chart.

It is not only for those reasons that I think he is being over-drafted. His rookie season was deemed a success overall, but there were plenty of negatives too. He was very touchdown dependent most of the season. This was due to his 50.3-percent catch rate.

I think that fact is being forgotten about and he is almost like the shiny new toy in Carolina. Don’t fall into that trap.

Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins (59, 24)

Late fifth round isn’t too bad for Matt Jones, who should have the backfield to himself for the most part. Hear me out though.

This guy has done nothing to prove he can handle a full workload in the NFL. He only topped 100 yards once, that was Week 2 against the Rams.

Ball security was a major issue for Jones last year, fumbling five times which was tied for fifth most.

Now add a preseason injury, AC sprain in his shoulder, and I won’t be drafting him in this position, especially ahead of guys like Langford, who

Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns (88, 8)

Gary who? Yeah I was saying the same thing last year. But wow did he impress with a band of misfit quarterbacks throwing him the ball.

Is he draftable in your standard 12 team league? Yes, but I fully expect a decline for him.

First reason, teams know who he is, so they will plan a bit more to stop him. Second, the guy is 30. It is rare that we see a star born at this age and in their seventh season. Random breakouts, we do see, full star not so much.

The last reason I’m down on Barnidge this season is the offense around him. The Browns have improved their supporting cast. Second year running back Duke Johnson is supposed to have a bigger role, mainly catching passes out of the backfield. Browns drafted a slew of WR, most notable Corey Coleman, and they will be getting Josh Gordon back in Week 5.


 

Be sure to check out all of our other great 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Kit Content so you can dominate your drafts.

About Joe Bond

Not just another "Average Joe" when it comes to Fantasy Sports, he is the fantasy brain trust behind the FantasySixPack.net website. Joe is included in the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings for Football, Baseball and Basketball and finished well each year. This includes a top-3 in-season ranking for Football in 2020 and top-5 in 2019. You can find him on Twitter, @F6P_Joe, where he is waiting by the keyboard for your question.

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