2017 Fantasy Baseball Week 13 Pitching Planner: One Chance

We have one chance, one chance
To get everything right
We have one chance, one chance
And if we’re lucky we might

— ‘One Chance’, Modest Mouse

Can you just imagine all the relievers in baseball joining hands and belting this song out in bullpens across the country? Because I sure can.

When frontman Isaac Brock picks up the songwriting pen, you can usually bank on some mind-twisting lyrics. What seems like such a simple, catchy song can turn into internal reflection about the meaning of life in an instant. Like, come on man, I don’t want to know that we are all just a ‘box in a cage’ in this life and that we only get one chance to do it right. I’m just trying to jam!

As a relief pitcher, I can definitely see how someone could have this type of thinking in a career. Generally speaking, you just get that one chance, that one inning to prove your worth in a game. However, what happens when you get that one chance to jump into the starting rotation? How do we know which relievers will have success when called upon to start?

As in every aspect in baseball, there is no definitive method to figuring this question out. However, there are a few things I look for, statistical and visual, that can provide a good guess:

1. Previous history of starting: Take a look at the player’s minor league statistics to see if he was brought up as a starter. Heck, maybe he’s even started a few games at the major league level. Check to see if the splits between starting and relieving are too extreme.
2. Long reliever: So maybe they haven’t started in the big leagues. However, see if they’ve had many multi-inning outings. Going through a lineup more than once can happen in multiple ways. That’s exactly the type of experiences we want to look at.
3. Multiple off-speed pitches: This is an obvious one – you aren’t going to get by with just two pitches like you will as a reliever. I will talk about a couple of pitchers in the rankings that added a third pitch to help them when facing a batter a second and third time.
4. Pitching mechanics: This one is an important one to me – the delivery needs to be non-taxing so that the pitcher can maintain strength throughout a start. Endurance is a major difference between relieving and starting, just ask Andrew Miller. His pitching style just doesn’t work for more than a couple of innings given how hard he throws on every pitch.

The point in all this is to remind you that these middle relievers are very important pieces to monitor. There are plenty of bullpen arms out there who are just waiting for their opportunity. Everyone is always looking for that minor leaguer getting called up, but these relievers can sneakily lead you to glory if given that one chance as a starter.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Week 13 Pitching Planner

Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Max Scherzer	Nationals	CHC	@STL
Chris Sale	Red Sox	MIN	@TOR
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	@LAA
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	@ARI	WSH
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	TEX	@DET
Chris Archer	Rays	@PIT
Yu Darvish	Rangers	@CLE
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	CHC
Corey Kluber	Indians	TEX
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	COL
Lance McCullers	Astros	NYY

Promoted

• Corey Kluber finds his way back to the elite tier. Just a formality, as it’s been a couple weeks since I updated the chart. Nothing to see here.

Relegated

• Something is wrong with James Paxton. Don’t take it from me though, take it from the much smarter folks at FanGraphs. I still wouldn’t sell in redraft leagues. You will just have to deal with the fact that he isn’t an elite arm. Boo hoo!

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don’t quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Alex Wood	Dodgers	@LAA
James Paxton	Mariners	PHI
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	STL
Luis Severino	Yankees	@CWS	@HOU
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	KC
Jacob deGrom	Mets	PHI
Gerrit Cole	Pirates	SF
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	BAL
Johnny Cueto	Giants	@PIT
Michael Pineda	Yankees	@HOU
Jon Lester	Cubs	@WSH
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	@WSH	@CIN

Notables

• Before the season, I was quite high on Alex Wood even though I knew he would be in the bullpen to start off 2017. While I’m tooting my own horn (beep beep), I never thought he would be this outright dominant. When trying to figure out what’s been the difference this year, two things stick out: velocity and plate discipline. He’s vastly improved in both categories and is reaping the benefits.

• If you are looking for the perfect case of moving a young, struggling starter to the bullpen to refine his ability, look no further than Luis Severino. Last season, dude had a 8.31 ERA as a starter, prompting the Yankees to send him to AAA and then the bullpen. He absolutely dominated in relief work with a 0.39 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 23.1 innings. The changeup development has paid huge dividends and makes a strong case for Severino to stay in this tier for the season.

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you might find on the waiver wire depending on league size.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Brandon McCarthy	Dodgers	@SD
Ervin Santana	Twins	@KC
Zack Godley	Diamondbacks	STL	COL
Jason Vargas	Royals	MIN
Jose Berrios	Twins	@BOS	@KC
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	COL	@PIT
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	MIN	@TOR
Sean Manaea	Athletics	@HOU	ATL
Dan Straily	Marlins	NYM	@MIL
Sonny Gray	Athletics	ATL
Jaime Garcia	Braves	@SD
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	@SF
Ivan Nova	Pirates	TB
Chase Anderson	Brewers	@CIN
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	@CIN
Brad Peacock	Astros	NYY
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	@CWS	@HOU
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	CHC	@STL
Justin Verlander	Tigers	KC	CLE
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	@SF	@ARI
Taijuan Walker	Diamondbacks	PHI	COL
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	@SD
Sean Newcomb	Braves	@SD	@OAK
Edinson Volquez	Marlins	@MIL
Jesse Hahn	Athletics	@HOU
Mike Leake	Cardinals	WSH
David Price	Red Sox	MIN
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	BOS
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	@ARI
Alex Cobb	Rays	@PIT	@BAL
Jacob Faria	Rays	@BAL
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	TB
Jake Odorizzi	Rays	@BAL
Tanner Roark	Nationals	@STL
J.A. Happ	Blue Jays	BAL
David Paulino	Astros	OAK
Aaron Nola	Phillies	@SEA
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	TB
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	@LAA
Steven Matz	Mets	@MIA
Mike Montgomery	Cubs	@CIN
Daniel Norris	Tigers	KC
Mike Fiers	Astros	OAK
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	@CWS
Seth Lugo	Mets	@MIA
Joe Biagini	Blue Jays	BAL	BOS

Notables

• Blazing the trail for 2016 reliever-turned-starters was Drew Pomeranz. He set the standard so high that the Padres got a high end prospect for him in the trade to Boston. After two straight solid starts, I love the strikeout upside in this two start week for Mr. Pomegranate.
• Nobody saw Brad Peacock coming! The strikeouts are pouring in, so what are you waiting for? LET HIM FLY!
• Finally, the return of Tyler’s Simplistic Scouting Spotlight. This week, we take a belated look at Sean Newcomb, one of the members of the 2020 World Series champion Atlanta Braves. Jokes aside, dude throws flames! With a very traditional and easy delivery, Newcomb consistently hits 94+ mph on the heater. He can fool both righties and lefties with his sharp hook. I don’t mean to overreact, but he gives me a Jon Lester vibe. Warning though, the walk rate could be a MASSIVE issue.

• Uh oh, I’m seeing double! We need a second installment of Tyler’s Simplistic Scouting Spotlight. Jacob Faria is flourishing right now, so let’s analyze! His strikeout-to-walk ratio is very strong. He’s a vertical thrower, meaning he doesn’t get much out of his lower half pre-pitch. It helps with eye level, but he’s throwing at the perfect angle for the home run swingers of today’s game. I’ve got limited optimism ROS, but other fantasy analysts love him.
• The king is back! Felix Hernandez returns just in time for a Seattle run here before the All-Star break that they desperately need after ‘winning’ the offseason. I’m inclined to start Felix right out of the gate given his success in rehab and history.
• One of my favorite relievers now in a rotation, Mike Montgomery has me giddy in multiple leagues where I snagged him. Monty had almost identical splits as a starter and reliever for Seattle and Chicago in 2016. I like that – it tells me that he is adaptable to any situation. He’s very crafty with four different plus pitches with varying speeds between 94 and 75 mph. Don’t let someone else scoop him up.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop said player.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Junior Guerra	Brewers	@CIN	MIA
Jhoulys Chacin	Padres	LAD	ATL
Mike Clevinger	Indians	TEX	@DET
Jeff Locke	Marlins	NYM
Erasmo Ramirez	Rays	@PIT
R.A. Dickey	Braves	@OAK
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	LAA	@SD
Jose Quintana	White Sox	NYY	TEX
Sam Gaviglio	Mariners	@LAA
Julio Teheran	Braves	@OAK
Joe Musgrove	Astros	OAK
Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	@SF
Jeremy Hellickson	Phillies	@NYM
Clayton Richard	Padres	LAD
Scott Feldman	Reds	CHC
Alex Meyer	Angels	LAD
Jason Hammel	Royals	MIN
Homer Bailey	Reds	MIL
Jose Urena	Marlins	NYM
Ben Lively	Phillies	@NYM
Charlie Morton	Astros	NYY
Nick Pivetta	Phillies	@ARI	@NYM
Tyson Ross	Rangers	@CLE	@CWS
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	STL
Ariel Miranda	Mariners	@LAA
JC Ramirez	Angels	LAD
Ty Blach	Giants	COL
Trevor Williams	Pirates	TB	SF
Matt Garza	Brewers	MIA
Dinelson Lamet	Padres	ATL
Rich Hill	Dodgers	LAA	@SD
Joe Ross	Nationals	CHC
Tim Adleman	Reds	MIL	CHC
Matt Moore	Giants	@PIT
James Shields	White Sox	NYY
Nick Martinez	Rangers	@CWS
German Marquez	Rockies	@ARI
Tyler Chatwood	Rockies	@ARI
Mike Pelfrey	White Sox	NYY
David Holmberg	White Sox	NYY	TEX
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	MIN
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	CIN	WSH
Trevor Bauer	Indians	TEX
Luis Perdomo	Padres	LAD
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	@HOU
Jesse Chavez	Angels	@LAD	SEA
Derek Holland	White Sox	TEX
Josh Tomlin	Indians	@DET
Matt Strahm	Royals	@DET	MIN
Zach Davies	Brewers	MIA
Austin Bibens-Dirks	Rangers	@CLE
Ian Kennedy	Royals	@DET
Ricky Nolasco	Angels	@LAD	SEA
John Lackey	Cubs	@WSH
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	@ARI
Wade Miley	Orioles	@TOR
Martin Perez	Rangers	@CLE	@CWS
Eddie Butler	Cubs	@WSH	@CIN
Parker Bridwell	Angels	SEA

Notables

• If you are a home-road splits truther, then Jhoulys Chacin getting two home starts this week really excites you. My opinion – I’m not pumped about either of these matchups.
• Is it just me, or does Homer Bailey look like the long lost twin of Christian Bale? Bailey dominated his three rehab starts and is ready to return to the big leagues. I would absolutely take a flier on him in 12-team leagues, but don’t start him this weekend against a beastly Washington offense.
• You know who is quite used to flipping between the rotation and the bullpen? Erasmo Ramirez more so than anyone listed in this pitching planner. If you are feeling good, I don’t mind the start at Pittsburgh. I would prefer to look to the waiver wire instead.

• Gut call, but Matt Strahm has the potential to be what Danny Duffy was for the Royals in 2016. He has a prospect pedigree as a starter and had success as a reliever across 44 innings in 2016-2017. We’ve seen it before – young southpaw reliever with mid 90’s velocity and multiple off-speeds. Add in 14+ teamers or AL-only leagues.
• Two starts down and I have no idea what to think about Tyson Ross. He didn’t look all that great in his first start despite good numbers, but still his second start was disappointing. He may not be an automatic starting option, but if he is a high end streamer then the average fantasy player can work with that!
• I’m a buyer on Charlie Morton if he can return to action the way he pitched in his first 57.2 innings. Sure, the walks are obnoxious, but as far as the (admittedly annoying) ‘stuff’ factor goes, he’s got it. Easy pickup in 12+ teamers if he is available.

Arms Amending

A new addition to the pitching planner, this table will be updated each week to show which pitchers are on the mend. The mid-tier pitcher that gets injured is always the guy who goes unnoticed on waiver wires, so use this to your advantage.

Player	Team	Injury	Anticipated Return
Cole Hamels	Rangers	Right oblique strain	Soon!
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	Upper back strain	Soon!
Matt Shoemaker	Angels	Forearm extensor strain	Soon!
Jon Gray	Rockies	Broken foot	Early July
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	Neck discomfort	Early July
Danny Salazar	Indians	Shoulder soreness	Early July
Zack Wheeler	Mets	Biceps tendinitis	Early July
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	Rich Hill syndrome (blisters)	Mid July
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	Dirt-bike disfigurement (separated left shoulder)	Post All-Star break
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	Right hand tendinitis / middle finger inflammation	Post All-Star break
Danny Duffy	Royals	Oblique strain	Post All-Star break
Drew Smyly	Rays	Left flexor strain	Post All-Star break
Andrew Triggs	Athletics	Strained left hip	Post All-Star break
Garrett Richards	Angels	Cutaneous nerve in biceps	August
Collin McHugh	Astros	Elbow impingement	August
Kendall Graveman	Athletics	Shoulder soreness	August
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	UCL sprain	August
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	Strained lat	TBD

Notables

• Good news: Jon Gray is fully healthy. Bad news: the Rockies actually have tons of mojo in their starting rotation. This gives them the opportunity to let Gray work his way back up to the majors more carefully. It won’t last long considering Gray is definitively better than everyone except possibly Jeff Hoffman in the Colorado rotation of youngsters.

• Another interesting development will come in the Houston rotation. They’ve got six or seven pitchers that are capable of providing quality innings and Dallas Keuchel will definitely be one of them when he returns. Who does that knock out? Lance McCullers is an obvious mainstay. Brad Peacock has been pitching too well to exclude in the rotation. David Paulino will either be shipped to the bullpen or minors. This leaves Morton, Mike Fiers, and Joe Musgrove to fight for one or two spots depending on if the Astros want to use a six man rotation or not. Something to keep an eye on!

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