2017 Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Pitching Planner: In Bloom

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He's the one who likes all our pretty songs
And he likes to sing along and he likes to shoot his gun
But he don't know what it means
Don't know what it means

- 'In Bloom', Nirvana

So you are an intimate fan or believer in something or someone from the very beginning. Through thick and thin, you stood by this something or someone and are finally rewarded when that thing or person blossoms into relevance. Now, you choose between fighting off or welcoming aboard the folks who previously were naysayers on the bandwagon.

The late Kurt Cobain wrote an entire song about it. 'In Bloom' was a song aimed at their bandwagon fans who only knew a couple of their catchy songs and not their message. What backfired here was that 'In Bloom' was really damn catchy - perhaps their catchiest song outside of 'Smells Like Teen Spirit'. So, this created quite the hilarious conundrum. A song designed to call out their fake fans for listening to their mainstream songs probably just drew in more of the same.

Where was I going with this? Oh, right. So we are three weeks deep into this 2017 baseball season. It's now time to start looking at the underlying meanings of player performance rather than just enjoying their surface stats. Granted, most stats for pitchers are still in the 'normalization' process including opposing AVG/wOBA, weighted pitch types, and home run rates.

The three statistics that I focus on at this point in the season are strikeout rates, walk rates, and pitch selection. It's a good time to look at K% and BB% because these rates don't involve outlying factors like defense or ballpark. For typical target rates for K% and BB%, check out this chart from FanGraphs. Players like Drew Pomeranz in 2016 were easy to spot on waiver wires because of early season strikeout and walk rates.

Now, if you are looking at a player that has differing K/BB ratios, here's where the pitch selection comes in handy. Say you, like everyone else in baseball, is wondering how the hell Jason Vargas is pitching so well. You want to see if he's doing anything different with his repertoire. Son of a gun, nothing has changed at all, same exact percentages as his below average self from 2014-2015. From there, you have a right to be skeptical from a guy who is throwing the same exact stuff and has a left-on-base percentage of 93.8%.

This is the time to use some data to determine pickups or drops. If you are thorough, you can differentiate between the pitchers putting on a fake show and the ones who could be in bloom for a wonderful 2017 campaign.

2017 Fantasy Baseball Week 4 Pitching Planner

Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of matchup.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	LAD	SD
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	@SF
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	ATL
Jacob deGrom	Mets	ATL
Max Scherzer	Nationals	NYM
Chris Sale	Red Sox	NYY
Chris Archer	Rays	@BAL	@TOR
Danny Duffy	Royals	@CWS
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	HOU
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	@PIT
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	SD	COL
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	TOR
Johnny Cueto	Giants	LAD
Yu Darvish	Rangers	LAA
Jon Lester	Cubs	@BOS
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	@COL	NYM
Justin Verlander	Tigers	SEA
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	TB
Corey Kluber	Indians	HOU
Julio Teheran	Braves	@NYM	@MIL
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	@PIT
Jose Quintana	White Sox	KC
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	@BOS
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	NYY	CHC

Promoted

• No one promoted to the big boy tier this week. Step it up second tier! I will admit though that there are a couple of guys that are very close.

Relegated

• There are no relegations this week, but I'm being very kind. Kyle Hendricks must have a bounce back start this week against a paltry Pirates team. The White Sox need trade candidate Jose Quintana to stop struggling, as do fantasy owners. Masahiro Tanaka needs to find his groove as well. Plenty of guys put on notice. I'm gonna be harsher next week!

Editor's Note: Madison Bumgarner lost a fight with a dirt bike the other day and will be out for a couple of months. I'm not outright telling you to drop him, but if he is going to be out for longer than two months I'm considering it.

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don't quite reach the trust level of Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production for the week.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	CWS
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	@CLE	OAK
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	@SF
Danny Salazar	Indians	SEA
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	@MIA
Aaron Nola	Phillies	MIA
Lance McCullers	Astros	@CLE
Tanner Roark	Nationals	NYM
James Paxton	Mariners	@DET
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	@LAD
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	NYY
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	@DET	@CLE
Cole Hamels	Rangers	MIN
Gerrit Cole	Pirates	CHC
Matt Harvey	Mets	@WSH
John Lackey	Cubs	@BOS
Kevin Gausman	Orioles	@NYY

Notables

• Vintage Beardman is back! Dallas Keuchel is back to his heavy groundball and weak contact inducing ways in the early going. Now, a 99% LOB isn't going to continue. But, if you bought into Keuchel's second half of 2016, you are looking pretty smart for it.
• Tanner Roark never gets any love. He's forgotten about even in his own rotation. He barely walks anyone, hasn't given up a dinger yet, and his FIP still says he can do better. He's become quite the 'set and forget' pitcher for fantasy rotations everywhere.

• Those who drafted Felix Hernandez in the middle rounds have to be very pleased with what they've got from him in April. He's got that four pitch mix rolling again and look sharp every time out. Even though it's a tough two start week, I'm excited for King Felix for this week and rest of season to see if he can get even better.
• Jake Odorizzi would've been a good play this week had he not gotten hurt. It's officially a hamstring strain and a trip to the disabled list. However, I think it'll be a minimum stay so better days ahead for Odorizzians.

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you might find on the waiver wire depending on league size.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Taijuan Walker	Diamondbacks	SD
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	SD
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	@STL	TB
Matt Shoemaker	Angels	OAK	@TEX
Sean Manaea	Athletics	@LAA
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	@NYY
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	TOR	CIN
Francisco Liriano	Blue Jays	@LAA	TB
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	@HOU
Ian Kennedy	Royals	MIN
Ivan Nova	Pirates	@MIA
Mike Leake	Cardinals	CIN
Andrew Triggs	Athletics	@HOU
Daniel Norris	Tigers	SEA
Brandon McCarthy	Dodgers	PHI
Jeremy Hellickson	Phillies	MIA
Edinson Volquez	Marlins	@PHI
Adam Conley	Marlins	@PHI
Kendall Graveman	Athletics	@LAA	@HOU
Ervin Santana	Twins	@TEX
Michael Pineda	Yankees	BAL
Charlie Morton	Astros	@CLE
Jesse Hahn	Athletics	@LAA
Wei-Yen Chen	Marlins	@PHI	PIT
Robert Gsellman	Mets	ATL	@WSH
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	CHC	@MIA
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	TOR
Luis Severino	Yankees	@BOS	BAL
Vince Velasquez	Phillies	MIA	@LAD
Joe Ross	Nationals	@COL	NYM
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	@COL

Notables

• A perfect study of pitch selection comes in the form of Dylan Bundy this season versus previous ones. Bundy has brought back the cutter into his bag of tricks, throwing it for almost 30% of his pitches after not throwing it once (!) in all of 2016. It's been a very effective pitch thus far and is a nice middle-ground velocity pitch between his hard fastball and off-speed stuff. I'm sorta buying this working in the long-term.
• The Pirates have been miserable this season, but there's been one positive at least. Ivan Nova has been pitching lights out for them. Yes, you'd like to see the strikeouts get back up to his previous levels. However, allowing zero walks and 50% grounders is a great way to get the majority of hitters out. Nova is a great waiver add if he is still somehow available in your league.

• Ian Kennedy can be a pretty predictable player between allowed batted ball profile and strikeout-to-walk ratios. The key ingredient to success for him is mitigating the home run damage and he has done that very well this season. I tend to target teams that are trying to hit fly balls too much against him. The Twins fit this description very well.
• Flashback to the 2014-2015 glory days of streaming! Jesse Hahn is looking fantastic in his first few starts and gets a decent opportunity at Anaheim. I see a ton of ground balls induced in this game.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench or the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Amir Garrett	Reds	@MIL	@STL
Matt Andriese	Rays	@TOR
Matt Moore	Giants	LAD
Jason Hammel	Royals	MIN
Chase Anderson	Brewers	ATL
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	ATL
R.A. Dickey	Braves	@NYM
Wily Peralta	Brewers	CIN
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	SD
Joe Musgrove	Astros	OAK
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	@SF	PHI
Brandon Finnegan	Reds	@STL
Bartolo Colon	Braves	@NYM
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	BAL
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	CIN
Dan Straily	Marlins	PIT
Hector Santiago	Twins	@TEX
Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	SEA	CWS
C.C. Sabathia	Yankees	@BOS
Brett Anderson	Cubs	@PIT
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	SD	COL
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	PIT
Trevor Bauer	Indians	HOU	SEA
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	@MIL
Alex Cobb	Rays	@BAL
Zack Wheeler	Mets	@WSH
Blake Snell	Rays	@TOR
Zack Davies	Brewers	CIN
Phil Hughes	Twins	@KC
Tim Adleman	Reds	@MIL
Jaime Garcia	Braves	@MIL
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	CHC
Shelby Miller	Diamondbacks	COL
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	CHC
Clayton Richard	Padres	@ARI	@SF
Tyler Anderson	Rockies	WSH	@ARI

Notables

• Another unsung hero, Matt Andriese is doing his best Roark impersonation and becoming a solid reliever-turned-starter. If Toronto bats are still cold by this point, I would definitely consider throwing Andriese as a streamer.
• I have never been a Chase Anderson guy and he always has a stretch of games where he goes insane and makes you believe. I say don't do it. This Braves matchup is going to tempt a lot of people but I could easily see Freddie Freeman hitting a couple bombs off of him. Best left on the waiver wire unless you're in a deeper league.

• Time now for Tyler's Simplistic Scouting Spotlight on Tim Adleman. He stands 6'5" and has a standard throwing motion/delivery. There's four pitches here including a two-seamer (92), four-seamer (92), changeup (84), and a nice hook (75). Best comparison I can come up with is Michael Wacha with less strikeout potential.
• I know the statistics don't follow my train of thought here, but everytime I watch Tyler Anderson pitch I am impressed. He does lots of things well and shouldn't be written off just yet. Luck will start to bounce his way soon enough.