Picking a 2018-19 Fantasy Basketball Guard Bust is not an easy task. It is hard to predict the Rajon Rondo type flops from the 2016-17 season. He had just come off a season where he led the league in assists with 11.7 per game. He was moving to a Bulls team that did not have a very good point guard on the roster and had weapons like Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade at his disposal. There was no reason to think he could not dish out a very healthy amount of assists again.
As we know now there was turmoil in the locker room that led him to only start 42 games (played in only 69). His minutes per game dipped to the mid 20's and of course, his season was a bust.
Trying to predict that is tough and something I'm not trying to do here. What I am going to do is pick players that will "bust" for their draft value. All of these players should still be useful fantasy options just not at the price you will have to pay on draft day.
Also go back and check out which Guard Sleepers I picked.
2018-19 Fantasy Basketball Guard Busts
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Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets
Last season there were a lot of doubters of Chris Paul because it was expected that his stats would take a major hit playing alongside James Harden. Well all Paul did was go out and post 18.6 points, a career-high 2.5 three-pointers, 5.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists a game.
Yes, the assists were down, but owners were more than happy with the return for Paul.
This season he will still produce plenty, but there is still so much risk with Paul that I will not draft him at his current price. For one, he is another year older, starting the season at age 33. It is inevitable that age will catch up to Paul at some point and I don't want to draft him the season it does. Not only that he has missed plenty of time over his career due to injuries already, including 24 games last season.
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
You all probably think I'm crazy for calling Thompson a bust. He does have four straight 20 point per game seasons, this includes last season when Kevin Durant.
I am worried though because what might be forgotten is how many games Steph Curry missed last year. This led to increased usage for Klay throughout the season.
Also at some point this year the Warriors will also get DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup, which will further hurt Thompson's usage.
He will still hit plenty of threes, but I expect his point total to drop below 20 and since he gives you very little else he won't be worth the price you have to pay.
Lou Williams, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers 2018-2019 Player Previews: Lou Williams had a season that will be hard to duplicate https://t.co/y1erhoggmo
— Clips Nation (@ClipsNationSBN) September 26, 2018
Lou Williams was amazing last year. He finished with a career high in points (22.6), three-pointers per game (2.4) and assists per game (5.3).
A closer look and Sweet Lou was the beneficiary of a lot of injuries last season. Most notably Patrick Beverly and Milos Teodosic. Those two missing for a majority of the season is what led to his minutes being above 30 for the first time in his career and his assists being easily the highest ever.
Not only are those two players returning, don't forget that the Clippers added Avery Bradley as part of the Blake Griffin trade last year. All three of these players in the rotation will cut back Lou's minutes and usage a lot.
I would not be one bit surprised if we see his points per game drop to the high teens and his three-pointers drop below two a game as well. His assists will not be anywhere as close now that he will have two point guards available. All of these are useful, just not worth the price of admission.
Josh Richardson, SG, Miami Heat
I have to admit something. I'm addicted to Josh Richardson. I seem to draft him each season. This has to do with his do it all skill set.
He can score, he can rebound, he can hit threes, he can steal and block shots.
Richardson has had stretches in his career where he is truly amazing and looks like a top 4 round fantasy player.
The issue is consistency. As many good stretches he has had, there are longer stretches where he just looks awful.
He is still young, so perhaps he figures it out, but it is hard to trust him at this point.
He is still be drafted based off his upside, but I will not take the bait this year.
Lonzo Ball, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
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Ball is being drafted as a fifth-round player and I am befuddled as to why. Do people think playing next to Lebron James is going to make him better? Honestly, I think it is going to be the opposite.
Lonzo averaged a measly 10 points per game with a terrible .360 field goal percentage. Despite the pretty solid 6.9 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.7 three-pointers a game he averaged, due to his percentages he was a tough player to roster.
With Lebron in town, I don't see how his stat line improves. Bron is a usage hog and will handle the ball a lot too. At best Lonzo gets some better shots so his field goal percentage improves. He is just not a good shooter so how much can we really expect it to improve?
You also can't forget that the aformentioned Rajon Rondo is backing him up. So it is not like we can expect Lonzo to see a huge increase in minutes his second season.
I fully expect Ball to score at best the same as last season, but his counting stats (assists, rebounds, threes-made, etc.) will suffer. This makes him a huge bust at his draft price.
Check out the rest of the 2018-19 Fantasy Basketball Coverage to help win your leagues.