2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 10 Drop List: Speed Kills

by Dennis Sosic
2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 10 Drop List: Speed Kills

Hello Fantasy friends and foes! Welcome back to the Fantasy Six Pack weekly Drop List.

Speed kills in every sport. In the NFL, there are many players especially wide receivers who get drafted early based solely upon their 40 times. Most of those so-called receivers couldn't catch a cold let alone a football while anticipating to get hammered in the secondary.

The speed aspect also plays a part in fantasy baseball, specifically regarding the steals category in roto leagues. There are several ways to attack the steals category as you build your fantasy roster. In essence, you do not want to just ignore (punt) steals. You are then forced to concentrate on winning the other categories by a significant margin.

My philosophy is to acquire hitters who can provide at least a handful of steals, therefore receiving enough steals to add up to a minimum middle of the pack finish. It is easier to replace a double-digit homer and stolen bases hitter than to find a replacement hitter projected to swipe 30-40 bases. Consequently, I will also not pay up for players whose steals MIGHT carry the steals category but hinder my overall roster production.

In my latest search for players to move on from in fantasy baseball,  I located three hitters whose main asset is the stolen base but they are not hitting. Owners who rely on these type of players are short-changing the rest of their rosters. If they are not getting on base, they can't steal, and they can't score. Therefore, they are of no use to your fantasy rosters. Additionally, I analyze two Marlins' pitchers that are no longer required to remain on fantasy rosters.

Let's find out who these five players are as we dive into the 2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 10 Drop List.

Wondering who to pick up after you drop one of the following players, take a look at our latest Waiver Wire article here, 2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 10 Waiver Wire: Substitutes.

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 10 Drop List

Looking for a Fantasy advantage? Get the ultimate in-season edge with customized Fantasy Baseball advice for your team using MyPlaybook from FantasyPros.


Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

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Orlando Arcia was failing to live up to expectations this season and even got demoted to Triple-A Colorado Springs after he was hitting just .194 with a .233 OBP and .671 OPS  in 44 games this season. He was having trouble at the plate after enjoying a mini-breakout in 2017 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a .277 batting average while playing his usual stellar defense at shortstop.

His stay in the minors was a brief one. He was recalled when infielder Tyler Saladino was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a left ankle sprain. In his four games at Colorado Springs, Arcia was 4 for 15 (.267) with a .313 OBP.

His defense is what has catapulted him through the Brewers farm system, and at shortstop, being excellent on offense is often seen as less important. Well, unless you are a fantasy owner! The trip to the minors for Arcia was hoping to regain his batting stroke and confidence. His biggest issue is his propensity for hitting the ball on the ground, as he has hit a grounder in 60.5 % of his plate appearances so far this season. He is currently hitting only .200 with two homers, 14 RBI along with a dismal 36 wRC+.

The Brewers need Arcia to maintain his slick-fielding at shortstop, for now. When Saladino returns from the DL, the Brewers have a decision to make, go with defense with Arcia and hope he finds his stroke or should they go with Saladino who hit .311/.340/.578 in his 45 at-bats this season? Fantasy owners know the answer to that question! Goodbye Orlando Arcia!

Delino DeShields, Jr., OF, Texas Rangers

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Delino DeShields Jr. was hitting .301 on May 8th. He is currently hitting .202. His average has plunged almost 100 points in less than a month. His OBP has decreased from .364 to .290 during that span as well. This prolonged slump has led to DeShields being dropped from the leadoff spot by the Rangers. He was inserted as the everyday leadoff hitter after hitting .350 with four stolen bases in 20 games this spring training.

DeShields may still have not fully recovered from the broken hamate bone that was removed from his left hand in the first week of the season. His most important contributions to the Rangers offense is to get on base and steal bases. If he is not reaching base, he can't steal bases and he can't score runs. While he is leading the team in stolen bases with 10, he is not walking much either. He has walked only 10 times in his last 101 plate appearances.

He MIGHT be worth holding on to deeper leagues solely based on stolen base potential, but he needs to turn his hitting around and quickly. Potential will only get you so far, and it looks like it will get Delino DeShields placed on the Rangers' bench along with dropped in fantasy leagues.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds

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I have to admit that I have never been a Billy Hamilton fan for fantasy purposes. Stolen bases are the most intangible category in fantasy baseball.  The search to improve that category can be costly for your overall team production. Billy Hamilton is the perfect illustration of that issue.

The "good" Billy Hamilton: The 230 bags he’s swiped over the last four seasons leads all of baseball by a wide margin, with only Dee Gordon’s 212 in that time standing in between Billy and Jose Altuve (156) in a distant third. The base running component of FanGraphs’ WAR hasn’t just rated him the best baserunner in the game over the last four years combined, it’s rated him over 1.4 times better than the next best guy on that list. According to Baseball Savant, Hamilton is the third fastest man in MLB, topping out at 30.0 ft/sec, or 20.45 mph for some perspective.

The "bad" Billy Hamilton: Hamilton is a .244 career hitter over 2,362 plate appearances in six seasons, all with the Reds. So far this season, he is hitting just .202/.288/.290 while striking out a career-high 30.2% of his at-bats.  His .577 OPS ranks next to his horrendous 2015 season numbers as the worst of his career to date. Hamilton has batted ninth in 36 of his 46 starts so far this season. Currently, he has only 10 stolen bases this season, nine behind Dee Gordon who leads baseball with 19 stolen bases.

It is quite obvious that Billy Hamilton will never be even an adequate hitter. His career wRC+ is 70 and it's even lower this season at 60. The old baseball adage is that you can't steal first. You also can't rely on Billy Hamilton if you are a fantasy owner.


Brad Ziegler, RP, Miami Marlins

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Finally, Miami Marlins' manager Don Mattingly made the change. He removed Brad Ziegler from the closer's role and he will be replaced by hard-throwing right-hander Kyle Barraclough. While Ziegler has converted nine of 10 save opportunities, he has a 0-5 record and a 7.88 ERA.

Brad Ziegler, at 38, is the oldest player on the team and has been terrible this season. Take a look at these numbers:

  • Ziegler has a WHIP (1.71) nearly twice that of Barraclough (0.95).
  • Opposing batters are hitting .337 against him with five home runs.
  • His HR/FB team-high 33.3% is tied for 2nd worst among all relievers.
  • Possesses a top five worst hard contact rate at 46.7% to go along with a -0.5 WAR.

If all of the above stats do not scream benching, I am not sure what does anymore. As mentioned, Kyle Barraclough will take over the ninth inning. He has a 1.42 ERA this season and his strikeout rate of 9.6 K/9 compares very well to top-level closers.

The only caveat with Barraclough is his high walk rate (15 walks in 25.1 innings). With every fantasy owner scrambling for saves, if you have not grabbed him yet, you are probably too late. If he is still available, he is an immediate must-add in all fantasy formats.

Dan Straily, SP, Miami Marlins

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Marlins pitcher Dan Straily began the 2018 season on the disabled list with inflammation in his right forearm. He made his season debut on April 30, where he lasted only four innings and gave up four earned runs and walked four batters. It seems that he is still recovering from his early season forearm injury.

He has posted a 2-2 record with a respectable 3.50 ERA but those stats are very deceiving. There are concerning signs for Straily as we dive deep into his numbers. He is having issues with his control as evidenced by his 22 walks in just 36 innings. Furthermore, he must be pitching with a lucky charm because of his batted ball data is highlighted (low light?) by a frightful 5.70 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and a 50% hard contact rate. This exemplifies that he is definitely not fooling anyone.

The Miami Marlins are going nowhere fast. They conducted a fire sale this off-season, leaving the team to rebuild again. Currently, they have a 20-39 record and they are not going to win many games this season. With Straily's underlying stats and his surrounding team, do you really want him on your fantasy roster?

Check out the rest of our great Fantasy Baseball content.

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1 comment

Wednesday, June 6, 2018 - Fantasy Baseball Links - FantasyRundown.com June 6, 2018 - 9:14 am

[…] names the ten players you can safely drop in most fantasy […]


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