2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Pitching Planner: GIF It Away

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This week in the Pitching Planner, I want to make a concerted effort to use more data visualization to get my points across.

I recently had a job interview where I was asked how I presented data to large groups of people. From a career standpoint, this was an easy question to answer. However, when I thought back to my most recent articles, I found that I have gotten away from using graphs and GIFs. I used to overflow with those items and now I've gotten a little lazy.

Well, fear no more! Lazy media is a thing of the past. (Actually, I'm still going to be somewhat lazy. However, I will be lazy by using smart people's GIFs and creating colorful pictures from FanGraphs. What a magical world we live in!) Time to get GIF-fy with it. Nah-nah nah nah nah-nah-nah,nah-nah nah nah nah-nah! I'm not on drugs, I swear.

As is (now) customary, we will start with a few of the outings that caught my eye in the first half of Week 10.

MONDAY

• The only pitcher I would have wanted to start last Monday would've been Luis Severino. Sevy had more strikeouts versus Tigers batters in one game (10) than Tigers pitchers did against Aaron Judge in the doubleheader (8). Okay, that was a low blow, but an eight-inning masterpiece led the way on Monday on what was a slow day for starters.

TUESDAY

• Should I just save a spot in this section for Andrew Heaney now? He threw a complete game shutout against the Royals, which has been right on par with his 2018 season to date. Heaney only allowed two baserunners and was able to effectively work around hitters with all of his pitch types. I really can't say anything else about Heaney that I haven't already said - dude's killing the game.
• Holy hell, a terrific Tuesday absolutely made up for the mediocre Monday. We had 17 (SEVENTEEN!) quality starts and four almost quality starts. It's like winning an award and having all of these people to thank at the podium. I'd like to thank Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Patrick Corbin, and James Paxton for being by my side all season. Also, I wouldn't be here without my behind the scenes crew of Sean Newcomb, CC Sabathia, and  Zack Eflin. *pushed off stage*

Sonny Gray, 95mph Two Seamer (called strike) and 86mph Slider (swinging strike/off the plate), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/uZorxN2G6e

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 7, 2018

WEDNESDAY

• First off, if you aren't following the Pitching Ninja, what are you even doing on Twitter? Are you retweeting NBA memes from a very predictable Finals series? Could you be favoriting some posts about fantasy football in June? Get off my lawn. What are we talking about? Oh, right, Sonny Gray was a monster in his last start. Hey, although I've never been a fan, you've gotta ride the hot hand! How about that for slant rhyme?
• Sam Gaviglio is the name that the police make you repeat in a sobriety test. He's also a pitcher who has had a decent start to his 2018 season for the Blue Jays. Look, I know there are a few positives here, but the history here is indicative of a coming down to Earth. LOB%, BABIP, and a potentially meek K% will hinder him from being a guy you can count on for more than a stream against the Marlins.
• Hello - it's good to see you again, vintage Carlos Carrasco! This outing against the Brewers was by far his best since that complete game where he had 14 punchouts back on May 9th (also against Milwaukee). If I was a betting man, I would bet that his end-of-season ERA is closer to his 2016-2017 average (~3.30) than his current 2018 one (4.23). Trade accordingly.

THURSDAY

• Jose Berrios in 2018 is just going to be one of those guys you have to start every week and be happy with the overall stats. Most recently, you are ecstatic about the fantastic complete game performance against the White Sox. One constant throughout the season (largely) has been his great K/BB, which was a perfect 10/0 on Thursday. Hopefully, he can fix those home/road splits and jump into SP2 status. For now, we must endure the growing pains.
• Whatever Miles Mikolas did over in Japan to revamp his career is about to become a very popular thing to do for middling arms. Now, he's riding a pristine 2.8% BB-rate due largely to a 71% first-strike rate, which is first among qualified starters. However, that's not as positive of an asset as one would think. Sure, the studs like Severino and Scherzer are up there with him, but so is Brandon McCarthy. If your stuff is hittable (see his low K% and SwStr%), teams will start gearing up for your first pitch. That could ultimately doom Mikolas. For now, my reckless speculation can be overlooked, but I would be looking to sell.

Now, let's hop into Week 11!

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Pitching Planner

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Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Max Scherzer	Nationals	@TOR
Chris Sale	Red Sox	@BAL
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	@ARZ
Jacob deGrom	Mets	@ARZ
Corey Kluber	Indians	MIN
Luis Severino	Yankees	TB
Justin Verlander	Astros	@OAK
Gerrit Cole	Astros	@OAK
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	@NYY

Promoted

• I think I've left Stephen Strasburg out of this group for too long. He's clearly better than the next tier of guys, so I'm going to throw him here for a week or two and see how it goes!

Relegated

• There were no relegations this week. We lose Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard to injury (again), but no one is out because of performance.

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don't quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Aaron Nola	Phillies	COL	@MIL
Walker Buehler	Dodgers	TEX
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	@MIA	@LAD
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	@CWS	MIN
Charlie Morton	Astros	@KC
Lance McCullers Jr.	Astros	@OAK	@KC
Trevor Bauer	Indians	@CWS
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	PIT
James Paxton	Mariners	BOS
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	PIT	NYM
Blake Snell	Rays	@NYY

Notables

• I had a mini-freakout when Patrick Corbin started experiencing velocity drops. The fact of the matter is that Corbin is just a great pitcher now. It's not really going to matter if his fastball velocity has dropped a couple of MPH on average. He's still a must-start pitcher and should be handled as such on your roster.
• While Blake Snell may have some issues maintaining his current pace, that's okay! Say it with me - "that's okay!" He's in the top 15 among qualified pitchers in great statistics like K-BB%, FIP-, xFIP-, and SwStr%. Is that good? Why yes, average fantasy baseball player, that's good.

• If you are wondering why I moved Trevor Bauer to the trusted tier, then join the party. You are late - just like me. Not even fashionably late, either. Just late. He was using the slider last August and September, but I ignored the amount of effect it would have long-term. Ten starts in 2018 later, he is making me look stupid. He was such an easy buy in 2018 drafts too. Sigh. I need to write this one down in my 'reminder' notebook for next year when evaluating pitchers with new pitches during a season. (By the way, albeit a lazy effort, that graph basically says everything. An effective slider makes all of his other pitches better.)

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you are contemplating starting or sitting. These are all worthy starters in a typical 12-team mixed league.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Jose Quintana	Cubs	@MIL	@STL
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	@ARZ
Jon Gray	Rockies	@PHI	@TEX
Luke Weaver	Cardinals	SD
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	NYM	SD
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	@BAL	@SEA
Miles Mikolas	Cardinals	SD
Vince Velasquez	Phillies	COL
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	@MIA
Jon Lester	Cubs	@STL
Nick Pivetta	Phillies	COL
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	@KC
Steven Matz	Mets	@ARZ
Andrew Suarez	Giants	@MIA
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	@TOR
Garrett Richards	Angels	@OAK
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	@STL
Sean Newcomb	Braves	SD
Kevin Gausman	Orioles	MIA
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	TB
Jose Berrios	Twins	@DET
Ross Stripling	Dodgers	SF
J.A. Happ	Blue Jays	@TB
Joe Musgrove	Pirates	CIN
Jake Arrieta	Phillies	@MIL
Alex Wood	Dodgers	SF
David Price	Red Sox	@SEA
Sonny Gray	Yankees	WSH
Anibal Sanchez	Braves	SD
Tyler Skaggs	Angels	@OAK
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	@ARZ
Jack Flaherty	Cardinals	SD	CHC
Trevor Richards	Marlins	SF	@BAL
German Marquez	Rockies	@PHI
Jose Urena	Marlins	@BAL
Luis Castillo	Reds	@PIT
Mike Clevinger	Indians	@CWS
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	CHC
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	MIN
Andrew Heaney	Angels	@SEA
Brandon McCarthy	Braves	NYM
Chris Stratton	Giants	@MIA	@LAD
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	@SEA
Alex Cobb	Orioles	MIA
Tyler Mahle	Reds	@KC
Caleb Smith	Marlins	SF
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	BOS	MIA
Nick Kingham	Pirates	CIN
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	CHC

Notables

• It feels wrong suggesting veterans Anibal Sanchez and Brandon McCarthy in the Pitching Planner this week. However, that's what you get when a first-place team is facing the Padres and Mets at home. Both guys have been 'good enough' this season when healthy. 'Good enough' is going to be a nice streaming option for the back end of your fantasy rotation this week.
• My scoring system loves Trevor Richards as a streaming option this week. Sure, the walk rate was god awful to start the season. However, check out his minor league numbers and tell me that his control is terrible. He actually had a decent return against the Cardinals on Thursday save for an untimely homer. I wouldn't start him right away against the Giants, but if he looks good in that game, absolutely roll him against the O's. Be wild, be adventurous!

Eduardo Rodríguez, Nasty 88mph Cutter (grip/release/spin) pic.twitter.com/37vqxk3Huw

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 30, 2018

• Similar to Bauer, Eduardo Rodriguez is having the best season of his career. Dissimilar to Bauer, it's the cutter that E-Rod is throwing significantly more. The best part - he's throwing it out of the same tunnel as his slider and changeup, which is baffling hitters with balls breaking every which way. If he can keep changing up his pitch mix in every start, we could be looking at a huge breakout here.
• Unsurprisingly, I'm calling halfsies on Dylan Bundy and Chris Stratton in Week 11. I very much want to start them in their Miami outings. I very much want to bench them otherwise. Don't get cute with their complimentary starts, either. The Dodgers hit righties hard and are on a hot streak, so Stratton could be in trouble there. And don't even get me started on Bundy - I'm just not a fan and the Red Sox offense is pretty darn good.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop the said player.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Mike Minor	Rangers	COL
Carlos Rodon	White Sox	DET
Jalen Beeks	Red Sox	@BAL	@SEA
Zack Godley	Diamondbacks	NYM
Wei-Yin Chen	Marlins	SF	@BAL
Shane Bieber	Indians	@CWS	MIN
Trevor Williams	Pirates	@ARZ	CIN
Brent Suter	Brewers	PHI
Jason Vargas	Mets	@ATL	@ARZ
Tyler Anderson	Rockies	@PHI
Blaine Hardy	Tigers	MIN	@CWS
Cole Hamels	Rangers	@LAD
Zack Wheeler	Mets	@ATL
Eric Lauer	Padres	@STL
Domingo German	Yankees	TB
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	WSH
Lance Lynn	Twins	@DET
Dennis Santana	Dodgers	TEX	SF
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	LAA
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	@PIT
Nick Tropeano	Angels	@OAK
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	WSH
Zach Eflin	Phillies	@MIL
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	@TEX
Clay Buchholz	Diamondbacks	PIT	NYM
Tyler Chatwood	Cubs	@MIL
Ian Kennedy	Royals	CIN
Mike Montgomery	Cubs	@MIL
CC Sabathia	Yankees	WSH	TB
Frankie Montas	Athletics	HOU
Sal Romano	Reds	@KC
Sean Manaea	Athletics	LAA
Marco Gonzales	Mariners	LAA
Kyle Gibson	Twins	@CLE
Sam Gaviglio	Blue Jays	@TB	WSH
Clayton Richard	Padres	@ATL
Danny Duffy	Royals	HOU
Jakob Junis	Royals	HOU
Matt Boyd	Tigers	MIN
Tyson Ross	Padres	@ATL
Jaime Garcia	Blue Jays	@TB
Tanner Roark	Nationals	@NYY	@TOR
Jordan Lyles	Padres	@STL	@ATL
Junior Guerra	Brewers	CHC	PHI
Jake Odorizzi	Twins	@DET	@CLE
Dan Straily	Marlins	SF
Derek Holland	Giants	@LAD
Mike Fiers	Tigers	@CWS
Matt Harvey	Reds	@PIT
Nathan Eovaldi	Rays	@NYY
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	CLE	DET
Fernando Romero	Twins	@CLE
Jason Hammel	Royals	HOU
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	BOS
Daniel Mengden	Athletics	HOU	LAA
Jhoulys Chacin	Brewers	CHC
Chase Anderson	Brewers	CHC
Mike Leake	Mariners	LAA	BOS
Wade LeBlanc	Mariners	LAA	BOS

Notables

• There are a couple of situations with rookies and fifth starter spots. The first I will talk about is Jalen Beeks after his rough debut. Now, it was just one bad inning and he was able to tough it out for another inning before getting pulled. He should get a second chance here, but the Red Sox could get cute after the start that Steven Wright churned out. I say knuckleballers are prone to having that one immaculate start if their stuff is on, so don't take too much stock into that. Beeks is worth a flier, especially if you hear good news about his status going into Week 11.
• The second rookie situation takes us to Cleveland. So, after Adam Plutko throws a no-hitter in Triple-A, everyone is clamoring back for him over Shane Bieber. There are a couple of things I will say about that. For one, Bieber also threw a no-hitter the week before. Don't fall prey to recency bias. Secondly, Bieber has the better minor league track record and long-term promise. Why not get him more reps at the majors and see if he can be the spark plug that propels you in the summer months? Sometimes these organizations just overthink things, man.

You’ll like this video. You’ll like it ahh-lawt. pic.twitter.com/pZagdF8H14

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 7, 2018

• This was the video of the week for me. We already saw what they could do with a Sandlot remake, but how about this performance by Brent Suter? It's spot on, beautiful, and likely a better performance than he will have on the mound this week. Or ever maybe? Bravo!
• Cole Hamels has been the subject of trade talk since the offseason and he's actually pitched well enough on the surface to get the Rangers a decent return. He could have a good start against a left-hating Dodgers offense, but I'm not risking it.

Arms Amending

This is usually where I put the players that are on the disabled list or making rehab appearances. Not only is it important to know where they are in their recovery, but knowing who will be replacing them is key as well.

Player	Team	Injury	Return
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	Hip strain	Soon!
Mike Soroka	Braves	Shoulder tightness	Soon!
Shelby Miller	Diamondbacks	Tommy John surgery	Soon!
Chris Archer	Rays	Left abdominal strain	Mid June
Yu Darvish	Cubs	Triceps tendinitis	Mid June
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	Shoulder fatigue	Mid June
Joey Lucchesi	Padres	Strained right hip	Mid June
Ivan Nova	Pirates	Strained ring finger ligament	Mid June
Julio Teheran	Braves	Thumb contusion	Mid June
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	Oblique strain	Late June
Rich Hill	Dodgers	Blister	Late June
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	BIceps tendinitis	Late June
Andrew Triggs	Athletics	Forearm discomfort	Late June
Johnny Cueto	Giants	Elbow inflammation	Early July
Ervin Santana	Twins	Finger surgery	Early July
Jeremy Hellickson	Nationals	Hamstring strain	Early July
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	Lower back strain	All-Star Break
Shohei Ohtani	Angels	UCL sprain	All-Star Break
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	Shoulder surgery	All-Star Break
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	Groin strain	All-Star Break
Jake Faria	Rays	Left oblique strain	All-Star Break
Zach Davies	Brewers	Shoulder inflammation	All-Star Break
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	Right lat strain (surgery)	2019

Notables

• And after four innings of major league work in 2018, Alex Reyes says goodbye until at least 2019. We all can learn something here, right? Quit over-hyping these dudes. Think about some of the young arms that are going to be put in this situation next year and don't allow yourself to fall for their draft price. The list includes Brent Honeywell, Dinelson Lamet, Jharel Cotton, and Jose De Leon.
• Well, we could possibly be getting Mike Soroka back this weekend if everything is going right for the rookie. The Braves want him to make one more rehab start after tearing it up in his first one with Triple-A Gwinnett.
• Kenta Maeda isn't expected to require any rehab assignments for the Dodgers. That's great news for a team that is asking a mediocre bullpen to open and close games. He should be back this weekend, but I will leave him in this section just in case.

Embed from Getty Images

• Chris Archer heads to the disabled list, which means, you guessed it, more 'opener' opportunities for the Rays! Yay! I mean, why would anyone writing an article where you rank starting pitchers for the week want to have stability and quantity for their piece? Jokes aside, this sucks because Archer was finally hitting his stride in his last several starts.
• Here's what I love about the opportunity in MLB. A struggling Drew Pomeranz that Boston felt inclined to start suffers biceps tendinitis, which allows the aforementioned Beeks to get a crack at the rotation for an extended period of time. Pom's future in the rotation now rests on the shoulders of the rookie instead of his own.

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