Alright, I have a few things to address in the introduction here.
First, there will be no recap of last week's performances. We have bigger fish to fry and I'm hungry as hell. I'm sorry about the bad news - this introduction would've been stupid long. Reading is a lot of work for you too, so don't act like I'm the only semi-lazy one here.
Next, a change is gonna come. That's not just an excuse to promote Greta Van Fleet again, but it's real and on the way. I've been neglecting the integrity of the top two tiers and what they stand for in the past month or so. Check out the Auto-Start and Auto-Stream sections for more information.
I've been pooping out articles left and right lately. Since I start a new job on Tuesday, the unemployed Tyler with crazy free time will be no more. If you are in a dynasty league, take a look at the scouting trips I took on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yordan Alvarez in the Texas League (AA). Also, be on the lookout for a midseason starting pitcher rankings article and an amateur dynasty draft piece. Yes, I was going absolutely stir-crazy without work to do!
Finally, I watched Interstellar (2014) yesterday for the first time. I'm generally not a fan of Matthew McCoughaney, but holy shnikes that movie was fantastic. I'm always way behind on movies, so send me some movies or TV shows that bend my mind like that. Black Mirror, Ex Machina, whatever awesome science fiction you can throw at me!
Ramble, ramble, ramble - it's time to RANK 'EM UP!
2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 15 Pitching Planner
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Auto-Start
The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.
| Name | Team | Opp1 | Opp2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | @SD | LAA |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | @NYM | |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | TEX | |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | PHI | |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | OAK | DET |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | NYY | |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | @CLE | |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | OAK | DET |
Promotions & Relegations
- From now on, I'm going to combine the promotions and relegations to make one section. It's not often that we even experience either of these in the SP1 tier anyway. That said, there will be changes to this tier after the All-Star Break. We've been due for a purge and this group needs rebranding.
Auto-Stream
This tier consists of pitchers who don't quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.
| Name | Team | Opp1 | Opp2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | Mariners | @COL | |
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | @NYM | @MIA |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | @ATL | |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | KC | TB |
| Blake Snell | Rays | @MIN | |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | @ATL | |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | CIN | |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | OAK | |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | CIN | NYY |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | OAK | |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | @COL | @ATL |
Promotions & Relegations
- I'm going to start doing 'Promotions' and 'Relegations' in this tier as well. I end up talking about the same guys on a biweekly basis and it gets mundane when we know that they are in the SP2 tier. Just as in the Auto-Start tier, there will be changes post-ASB. No one is safe.
Dream Stream
The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you are contemplating starting or sitting. These are all worthy starters in a typical 12-team mixed league.
| Name | Team | Opp1 | Opp2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | @SD | LAA |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | @SD | |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | @SD | |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | @SF | |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | DET | |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | LAA | |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | @BAL | |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | OAK | |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | @SD | |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | @SF | @SD |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | @CWS | |
| Chris Archer | Rays | DET | |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | SEA | |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | MIL | |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | @BAL | |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | @CWS | |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | @BAL | @CLE |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | @BAL | |
| David Price | Red Sox | TOR | |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | @BOS | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | @NYM | |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | @PIT | |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | CHC | |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | CIN | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | KC | |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | @ATL | |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | @MIN | @CWS |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | CIN | |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | @MIA | |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | @SF | |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | @BAL | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | @MIN | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | TOR | |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | @STL | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | TOR | |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | @LAA | |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | NYY | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | TEX | TOR |
| Steven Matz | Mets | WSH | |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | SEA | @LAD |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | PHI | WSH |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | NYY | |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | STL | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | TB | |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | @NYM | @MIA |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | CHC | OAK |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | ARZ | |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | PHI | |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | @PIT | |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | @NYM | |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | MIL | |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | ARZ | |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | @SF | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | @BAL | @CLE |
Notables
- We have a confirmed return for Chris Archer to the Rays rotation. Archer was doing 'Archer' things before his injury, which isn't meant to sound all that positive. If he gets traded to a contender that can tinker with his pitch mix, we could really be cooking.
- The Yankees have a busy schedule in the final week before the All-Star Break. Masahiro Tanaka is slated to start the Tuesday game and get a two-start week. However, we are still missing a starter for Game 1 of the Monday doubleheader. Don't be surprised if Jonathan Loaisiga gets another chance to show off his electric stuff.
It’ll be Cueto-Dereck Rodriguez-Samardzija-Bumgarner against the Cardinals beginning Thursday. Bochy wouldn’t say who is second pitcher nudged from rotation, but it’s clearly in Chris Stratton’s best interest to have a good one tonight. Suarez tomorrow, too.
— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) July 3, 2018
- In the most Giants' way possible, we have a rotation spot in question between a struggling veteran and a promising rookie. Chris Stratton shouldn't have any business fighting for this spot with Andrew Suarez when comparing the numbers. However, this is Bruce Bochy and the Giants we are talking about. I have ranked both of them according to the start that they project to have. You see the disparity between the two though.
- So, Jon Gray was sent down to Triple-A to 'work on some things' by an organization that doesn't understand underlying metrics. Now, with Chad Bettis on the disabled list, they may be forced to call him back up. I'm not shying away from starting an angry Gray against a decent Mariners offense in DFS. The ranking system I use loves Gray, but I wouldn't risk a start at Coors Field unless you're desperate.
Buyer Beware
These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop the said player.
| Name | Team | Opp1 | Opp2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | Rangers | @BOS | @BAL |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | OAK | |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | @COL | |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | PHI | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | @LAA | |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | WSH | MIL |
| Domingo German | Yankees | @CLE | |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | @LAD | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | ARZ | |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | LAD | |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | @HOU | |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | CIN | NYY |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | TB | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | PHI | |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | @COL | |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | @COL | |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | @SD | |
| Trevor Oaks | Royals | @MIN | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | @MIA | @PIT |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | @CLE | |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | ARZ | SEA |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | @CWS | |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | MIL | PHI |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | @HOU | @SF |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | @MIA | @PIT |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | @LAA | @COL |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | CHC | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | @TB | |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | MIL | |
| Aaron Wilkerson | Brewers | @PIT | |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | SEA | |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | @MIN | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | @PIT | @NYM |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | @ATL | @BOS |
| Felix Pena | Angels | SEA | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | @TB | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | @CLE | @STL |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | WSH | |
| Corey Oswalt | Mets | PHI | WSH |
| John Gant | Cardinals | CIN | |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | @HOU | @SF |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | MIL | |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | TOR | ARZ |
| Brad Keller | Royals | @CWS | |
| Matt Harvey | Reds | @STL | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | ARZ | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | @CLE | |
| Alex Cobb | Orioles | TEX | |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | CHC | OAK |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | @BOS | |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | TEX | TOR |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | @BOS | |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | LAD | |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | CHC | |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | SEA |
Notables
- Good news: Shane Bieber has locked down a rotation spot in a perfect situation in Cleveland.
Bad news: he gets a brutal two-start week in Week 15. The Yankees are obviously tough but don't sleep on the Reds. Cincinnati has won 14 of their last 18 games (as of July 7th), averaging 6.5 runs per contest over that span.Cleveland moved some start around - Bieber Sunday/Clevinger Monday - If you are streaming Tyler Chatwood against the Padres, my thoughts and prayers are with you. He's just the worst. I can't wait until he gets moved to the bullpen. Whether it be by Yu Darvish taking his spot or the Cubs making a trade, I just can't bear to watch Tyler Chat-walk pitch another game.
- Okay, Sean Manaea, it's kinda hard to complain, but c'mon! A 17.1% K-rate isn't going to cut it. That mark sits well below the strikeout rates of Trevor Williams and Ivan Nova. His SwStr% is 2% lower than his 2016-2017 conglomerate. However, his O-Contact% is about 6% higher than it was last year, which makes me wonder if the weak contact he is getting is just as valuable as getting swings and misses. Someone smarter please help me out!
- We talked about Jon Gray getting sent down to the minors earlier. The biggest beneficiary of this move was Antonio Senzatela. The 23-year-old made his first start of the season on July 3rd, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing just three baserunners. As a starter last year, he was pretty terrible with a 5.00 FIP and 4.47 xFIP in 111 innings.
Arms Amending
This is usually where I put the players that are on the disabled list or making rehab appearances. Not only is it important to know where they are in their recovery, but knowing who will be replacing them is key as well.
| Player | Team | Injury | Throwing? | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | Strained finger ligament | Rehab start - Single-A (short) | Soon! |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | Rib microfracture | Rehab start - High A | Soon! |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | Right index finger infection | Soon! | |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | Shoulder inflammation | Simulated game | Mid July |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | Groin strain | Rehab start - AZ Summer League | Late July |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | Bruised forearm | Late July | |
| Jake Faria | Rays | Left oblique strain | Rehab start - High A | Late July |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | Strained right Achilles | Simulated game | Late July |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | BIceps tendinitis | Rehab start - Triple A | Late July |
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | Knee tendinitis | Late July | |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | Index finger contusion | Flat ground | Late July |
| Max Fried | Braves | Middle finger blister | Late July | |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | Right adductor strain | Early August | |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | Forearm tightness | Early August | |
| Erick Fedde | Nationals | Shoulder inflammation | Early August | |
| Yu Darvish | Cubs | Elbow impingement | Mid August | |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | UCL sprain | Late August | |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | Shoulder surgery | September | |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | Oblique strain | September | |
| Mike Soroka | Braves | Shoulder tightness | September |
Notables
- Despite trade rumors circling, Noah Syndergaard continues to work his harder in rehab. Thor will have a rehab start at short-season Single-A, then he could rejoin the Mets before the All-Star Break. Start him if he goes!
- It looks like Stephen Strasburg could be back soon. He will make a rehab start this week and possibly another one before the All-Star Break. I'd be expecting him to start on the Friday after the All-Star Break since I'm assuming Max Scherzer will throw an inning or two in the actual game.
Walker Buehler threw a full bullpen session today. Next step is a sim game, likely on Sunday.
— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) July 6, 2018
- Walker Buehler could get a start this week against the Padres or Angels. If the Dodgers say he's ready, I'm firing him up in my fantasy lineups!
- Yes, I realize that Shohei Ohtani is hitting and off the disabled list. Another cool thing about having a two-way player - having him in the 'Arms Amending' section while he's still contributing to the offense.
- I used to not be a fan of Vince Velasquez, but that all changed. He made a ridiculously normal throw with his left arm after his right arm was struck by a line drive. It's going to cost him a trip to the disabled list, but how incredible is that play!
- Joe Musgrove had a finger infection that was preventing him from executing his pitches. So, he got thrown on the disabled list. If any of your parents want to scare your kids out there, tell them this happens when they don't wash their hands.
Check out the rest of our great 2018 Fantasy Baseball content.
