Fantasy Baseball

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 17 Pitching Planner: Buck the Trend

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I didn’t think I would receive such backlash over a simple midseason ranking for starting pitchers. However, there are people that love to hate things and a large portion of them reside on Reddit or Twitter. They feed on trolling and have a strong desire for debate.

First, I hate debating. You won’t find me listening to sports debate shows or even using my social media accounts to establish a side on the political spectrum. In line with this, the second thing I want to say is that I am a free-thinker who can be persuaded by the right minds to rethink what I’ve previously believed.

Looking specifically at baseball, sometimes I tend to blindly follow my system to determine a pitcher’s value. However, I can’t know every little real-life detail of every pitcher since I do this as a hobby. Therefore, I need to depend more on credible sources on various media outlets to shape my thinking.


So, when crossing the Reddit page where our site posted this article, there were plenty of ‘these rankings suck’ comments that really threw me off. For the people that don’t understand me, if you present your case in the right way, I will listen. Turn that ‘these rankings suck’ into a ‘these rankings could use a tweak’. I want to help the readers and your input, if presented properly, could be vital!

Back to the point…

Anyway, one of the Redditors did just this and gave me an idea for this article. This user was talking about Miles Mikolas and his monthly splits. I thought, huh, I generally don’t put much stock into streaks, but I should at least analyze the information and use it in particular cases.

So, for this week, I want to share monthly splits and trendlines for each player using the Sparklines tool in Excel. Click here to check out my chart. (Careful with samples each month – some guys might have three or four starts while others have one or even zero. I red-texted them for your viewing experience.)

Time to RANK ‘EM UP!

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 17 Pitching Planner

Get customized Fantasy Baseball advice for your team using MyPlaybook from FantasyPros.

Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.

NameTeamOpp1Opp2
Chris SaleRed SoxMIN
Corey KluberIndiansPIT@DET
Max ScherzerNationals@MIA
Jacob deGromMets@PIT
Clayton KershawDodgers@ATL
Luis SeverinoYankees@TBKC
Justin VerlanderAstrosTEX

Promotions & Relegations

  • Since our last Pitching Planner back in Week 15, only Gerrit Cole has been demoted. His splits over the last two months haven’t been quite as dominant as his first two months. He only moves down to the Auto-Stream and still has a good shot to rejoin this tier soon.

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don’t quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.

NameTeamOpp1Opp2
James PaxtonMarinersSF
Noah SyndergaardMetsSD
Carlos CarrascoIndians@DET
Stephen StrasburgNationals@MIL
Trevor BauerIndiansPIT
Gerrit ColeAstros@COL
Charlie MortonAstros@COL
Blake SnellRaysNYY@BAL
Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks@SD
Ross StriplingDodgers@PHI
Lance McCullers Jr.AstrosTEX
Aaron NolaPhilliesLAD@CIN
Jose BerriosTwins@TOR@BOS

Promotions & Relegations

  • Well, we have two promotions this week to the Auto-Stream tier. Ross Stripling is certainly deserving of a raise considering what he’s been doing for the past two months. There’s no way the Dodgers can move him to the bullpen right now. Lance McCullers Jr. joins his fellow Astros in Cole and Charlie Morton here. By the way, that rotation is stacked if you didn’t know.
  • Three southpaws get a brief demotion to the generic streaming pool. Madison Bumgarner and Robbie Ray haven’t been all there due to injuries. Patrick Corbin has been on a weird roller coaster ride lately. With all three of these guys, I can be easily persuaded to promote them back to this tier with a couple of good starts.

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you are contemplating starting or sitting. These are all worthy starters in a typical 12-team mixed league.

NameTeamOpp1Opp2
Chris ArcherRays@BAL
Walker BuehlerDodgers@PHI
Rich HillDodgers@ATL
Kenta MaedaDodgers@PHI@ATL
Masahiro TanakaYankeesKC
David PriceRed Sox@BAL
Madison BumgarnerGiantsMIL
Robbie RayDiamondbacks@CHC
Zack WheelerMetsSD@PIT
Mike ClevingerIndians@DET
Alex WoodDodgers@ATL
Freddy PeraltaBrewersWSH@SF
Jon GrayRockiesHOU
Joey LucchesiPadres@NYM
Andrew SuarezGiants@SEAMIL
Patrick CorbinDiamondbacks@CHC@SD
Jose QuintanaCubs@STL
Shane BieberIndiansPIT
Tyler SkaggsAngelsCWS
Rick PorcelloRed Sox@BALMIN
Danny DuffyRoyalsDET
Sonny GrayYankeesKC
J.A. HappBlue Jays@CWS
Jameson TaillonPirates@CLE
Jon LesterCubsARZ
Dallas KeuchelAstrosTEX
Nick KinghamPiratesNYM
Andrew HeaneyAngelsSEA
Steven MatzMets@PIT
Johnny CuetoGiantsMIL
Carlos RodonWhite Sox@LAATOR
Marco GonzalesMariners@LAA
Mike FoltynewiczBravesLAD
Luke WeaverCardinalsCHC
Luis CastilloRedsSTLPHI
Jack FlahertyCardinals@CIN
Brent SuterBrewers@SF
Nick PivettaPhillies@CIN
Miles MikolasCardinalsCHC
Jake ArrietaPhilliesLAD
Marcus StromanBlue Jays@CWS
Gio GonzalezNationals@MIA
Kyle GibsonTwins@TOR
Vince VelasquezPhillies@CIN
Felix HernandezMariners@LAA
Max FriedBraves@MIA
Felix PenaAngelsCWSSEA
Dereck RodriguezGiantsMIL
Chase AndersonBrewers@SF
CC SabathiaYankees@TBKC
Matt BoydTigers@KC
Jhoulys ChacinBrewersWSH@SF

Notables

  • I wonder how serious the Dodgers are about a six-man rotation. It makes complete sense for them, but who breaks first? I want to believe that both Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda maintain their solid seasons. Between Rich Hill and Alex Wood, the Dodgers might try to extend them as multi-inning lefty relievers. They are missing that guy in the bullpen and they may want to prep one of these guys for that role in the playoffs. Oh well, one of these guys will end up getting hurt soon and all of this will be settled.
  • Mike Clevinger will undoubtedly be a popular DFS play this week. However, I’m inclined to roll with it and hope that his ownership percentage isn’t too high. The Tigers are dead last in OPS over the last 30 days and are the worst team in the league against RHP. Don’t overthink it.

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  • The only team about as cold as the Tigers have been over the past 30 days are the Royals. Therefore, Matt Boyd needs to be in your waiver wire watch list for Week 17. Sure, he’s been horrendous in June and July. However, now’s a better time than ever for him to sneak into a fantasy-relevant performance.
  • Ugh, I hate streaming Jhoulys Chacin. He’s been pitching well lately, but he just always seems to burn me more often than not. If possible, sit him against the Nationals and stream against the Giants.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop the said player.

NameTeamOpp1Opp2
Joe MusgrovePirates@CLENYM
Jason VargasMetsSD@PIT
Kyle HendricksCubsARZ@STL
Eric LauerPadres@NYMARZ
Nathan EovaldiRaysNYY
Ivan NovaPiratesNYM
Trevor RichardsMarlinsWSH
Clayton RichardPadres@NYM
Tyler AndersonRockiesHOU
Wei-Yin ChenMarlinsATL
Anthony DeSclafaniRedsPHI
Anibal SanchezBravesLAD
Trevor CahillAthletics@TEX
Tyler MahleRedsSTL
German MarquezRockiesOAK
Tyson RossPadresARZ
Wade MileyBrewersWSH
Zack GodleyDiamondbacks@CHC
Drew PomeranzRed Sox@BALMIN
Luis PerdomoPadresARZ
Carlos MartinezCardinals@CIN
Tanner RoarkNationals@MIL@MIA
Ian KennedyRoyalsDET@NYY
Sean NewcombBravesLAD
Jose UrenaMarlinsATLWSH
Chris StrattonGiants@SEA
Nick TropeanoAngelsCWS
Mike LeakeMarinersSF
Jakob JunisRoyals@NYY
Dan StrailyMarlinsWSH
Wade LeBlancMariners@LAA
Mike MontgomeryCubsARZ
Sam GaviglioBlue JaysMIN
Matt HarveyRedsPHI
Cole HamelsRangersOAK@HOU
Sean ManaeaAthletics@COL
John GantCardinalsCHC
Tyler ChatwoodCubs@STL
Clay BuchholzDiamondbacks@CHC@SD
Deck McGuireAngelsCWSSEA
Francisco LirianoTigers@KCCLE
Marco EstradaBlue JaysMIN@CWS
Jeremy HellicksonNationals@MIL@MIA
Antonio SenzatelaRockiesOAK
Ryan BoruckiBlue JaysMIN
Trevor WilliamsPirates@CLENYM
Mike MinorRangersOAK@HOU
Julio TeheranBraves@MIALAD
Reynaldo LopezWhite SoxTOR
Jordan ZimmermannTigersCLE
Zach EflinPhilliesLAD@CIN
Frankie MontasAthletics@TEX@COL
Dylan CoveyWhite Sox@LAA
Luis CessaYankees@TB
Mike FiersTigersCLE
Kyle FreelandRockiesOAK
Alex CobbOriolesTB
James ShieldsWhite Sox@LAA
Edwin JacksonAthletics@TEX
Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox@LAATOR

Notables

  • There are four decent two-start weeks at the top of this section that I don’t mind if Chacin is not available. Just be sure to pick your starts if you are in a daily format.
  • Thus far, Tyler Anderson is enjoying his July, to say the least. When you allow just three earned runs in 20 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 0.199 wOBA against, you run bleep. Unfortunately, he has to face the Astros at Coors Field. Yikes!

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  • In a typical matchup against the Rangers, I would go ahead and stream Trevor Cahill. However, it’s his first or second start off of the disabled list and I just don’t feel great about it.
  • Another guy making his way off of the DL is Drew Pomeranz. He has set the bar incredibly low for himself in the second half and Boston really needs him to step up now with Eduardo Rodriguez out. Needless to say, a 6.81 ERA and 5.36 FIP isn’t going to cut it!

Arms Amending

This is usually where I put the players that are on the disabled list or making rehab appearances. Not only is it important to know where they are in their recovery, but knowing who will be replacing them is key as well.



** I have decided to forgo this section for Week 17. This is a difficult section to do in a normal week, let alone one where we are getting players activated left and right after the All-Star Break. I will resurrect this section next week! **


Check out the rest of our great 2018 Fantasy Baseball content.

About Tyler Thompson

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  1. Pingback: Saturday, July 21, 2018 - Fantasy Baseball Links - FantasyRundown.com

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