2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 18 Pitching Planner: Tricks of the Trades

The trade deadline can be a fun, stressful, optimistic, pessimistic, and crazy day for baseball folk across the country. Whether your team is in first or last place, the trade market is a way for us to figure out when our team expects to next contend for a World Series title.

In the fantasy baseball world, it's always a mystery as to whether or not a trade helped your player moving to a contending team. There are many factors rather than just boosting the win percentage that can determine the fate of your starting pitchers on the move.

In this version of the pitching planner, I will focus my comments on starters whose names are heavily discussed on the trade market. Some have already been moved while others are still waiting to be potentially dealt. I will rate these guys based on three categories: DH-avoidance, park factors, and defense.

It's time to RANK 'EM UP!

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 18 Pitching Planner

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Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.

Name	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Chris Sale	Red Sox	NYY
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	MIL
Max Scherzer	Nationals	CIN
Jacob deGrom	Mets	ATL
Corey Kluber	Indians	LAA
Justin Verlander	Astros	@LAD
Gerrit Cole	Astros	@SEA	@LAD
Luis Severino	Yankees	@BOS

Promotions & Relegations

• We got no movement in the top tier this week. PHEW!

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don't quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.

Name	Team	Opp1	Opp2
James Paxton	Mariners	HOU	TOR
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	@WSH
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	SF
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	TEX	SF
Charlie Morton	Astros	@SEA
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	@MIN
Trevor Bauer	Indians	@MIN
Aaron Nola	Phillies	@BOS	MIA
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	SF
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	@ARZ
Jose Berrios	Twins	KC

Promotions & Relegations

• Other than Noah Syndergaard rejoining the group off the disabled list, I have nothing here.

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you are contemplating starting or sitting. These are all worthy starters in a typical 12-team mixed league.

Name	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	MIL	HOU
Walker Buehler	Dodgers	MIL
Rich Hill	Dodgers	MIL
Chris Archer	Rays	LAA
Jose Quintana	Cubs	SD
Ross Stripling	Dodgers	HOU
Jon Gray	Rockies	@STL	@MIL
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	@SEA
Alex Wood	Dodgers	HOU
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	SD
David Price	Red Sox	PHI
Lance McCullers Jr.	Astros	@LAD
Nick Pivetta	Phillies	MIA
Vince Velasquez	Phillies	MIA
Sonny Gray	Yankees	BAL
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	BAL	@BOS
Frankie Montas	Athletics	DET
Anibal Sanchez	Braves	MIA	@NYM
J.A. Happ	Yankees	@BOS
Derek Holland	Giants	@SD	@ARZ
Johnny Cueto	Giants	@ARZ
Jon Lester	Cubs	@PIT	SD
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	MIA
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	CHC
Zack Wheeler	Mets	ATL
Joe Musgrove	Pirates	STL
Tyler Skaggs	Angels	@TB	@CLE
Andrew Suarez	Giants	@ARZ
Mike Clevinger	Indians	LAA
Yonny Chirinos	Rays	CWS
Andrew Heaney	Angels	@TB
Zack Godley	Diamondbacks	TEX
Luke Weaver	Cardinals	COL
German Marquez	Rockies	@MIL
Tanner Roark	Nationals	NYM	CIN
Mike Minor	Rangers	BAL
Miles Mikolas	Cardinals	COL
Sean Newcomb	Braves	@NYM
Carlos Rodon	White Sox	@TB
Clayton Richard	Padres	SF
Mike Montgomery	Cubs	SD
Marco Gonzales	Mariners	TOR
Danny Duffy	Royals	@CWS	@MIN
Tyler Anderson	Rockies	@STL	@MIL
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	CIN
Jake Odorizzi	Twins	KC
Clay Buchholz	Diamondbacks	SF
Julio Teheran	Braves	MIA	@NYM
Sean Manaea	Athletics	TOR
Zach Eflin	Phillies	MIA
Max Fried	Braves	@NYM
Dereck Rodriguez	Giants	@SD

Notables

• We start with the best starter of 2018 to get traded thus far in J.A. Happ. He remains in the same division, but he now doesn't have to face the Yankees since he plays for him (sound logic). The park factors are significantly worse in Yankee Stadium than in the Rogers Centre. By defensive WAR (dWAR), Happ acquires a huge advantage with the team switch. I grade this out as a B for the southpaw.
• So, the situation is not great for Chris Archer right now. He's in a division with two of the best offenses in the American League. While Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park, the Rays defense is average at best. If Archer can somehow get moved to a team like the Padres or Braves, his situation looks much better (for different reasons). However, I am not optimistic that Archer gets moved.

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• Zack Wheeler has had an interesting season for the Mets. He's been at his healthiest relative to his career, but the stats have been 'meh'. While the park factors are in his favor, the defense for the Mets is easily the worst in the league by dWAR. It's a terrible infield that just traded its best fielder (Asdrubal Cabrera) away. Yikes!
• While we haven't heard much about Mike Minor, I would think that a contender could use his services. However, I feel that if he gets moved, a contender would throw him into a long relief role. Minor was a monster for the Royals out of the bullpen in 2017, so I imagine that he would have appeal in that role for a team that is struggling in the bullpen. Not that many folks were using Minor as a streamer, but in deeper leagues, a trade could kill his value.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop the said player.

Name	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Jack Flaherty	Cardinals	COL	@PIT
Trevor Richards	Marlins	@PHI
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	COL	@PIT
Luis Castillo	Reds	@WSH
Shane Bieber	Indians	@MIN	LAA
Joey Lucchesi	Padres	@CHC
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	@OAK
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	NYY
Jake Arrieta	Phillies	@BOS
Wei-Yin Chen	Marlins	@ATL	@PHI
Steven Matz	Mets	@WSH	ATL
Wade LeBlanc	Mariners	HOU
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	TOR
Nathan Eovaldi	Red Sox	NYY
Daniel Mengden	Athletics	DET
Kevin Gausman	Orioles	@TEX
Sal Romano	Reds	@DET
Ivan Nova	Pirates	STL
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	TOR
Pablo Lopez	Marlins	@ATL
Jose Urena	Marlins	@PHI
Jakob Junis	Royals	@CWS
Felix Pena	Angels	@CLE
Mike Leake	Mariners	HOU	TOR
Eric Lauer	Padres	SF	@CHC
Kyle Gibson	Twins	CLE
Jason Vargas	Mets	ATL
Ervin Santana	Twins	CLE	KC
Cole Hamels	Cubs	@PIT
Ryan Borucki	Blue Jays	@SEA
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	@NYY	@TEX
Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	@STL
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	@OAK	@SEA
Dan Straily	Marlins	@ATL	@PHI
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	PHI	NYY
Freddy Peralta	Brewers	@LAD	COL
Matt Boyd	Tigers	CIN
John Gant	Cardinals	@PIT
Junior Guerra	Brewers	COL
Nick Kingham	Pirates	CHC
Tyler Mahle	Reds	@WSH
Nick Tropeano	Angels	@TB
Jhoulys Chacin	Brewers	@LAD
Chase Anderson	Brewers	@LAD
Lance Lynn	Twins	CLE
CC Sabathia	Yankees	@BOS
Martin Perez	Rangers	@ARZ	BAL
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	@WSH
Sam Gaviglio	Blue Jays	@OAK	@SEA
Jeremy Hellickson	Nationals	CIN
Mike Fiers	Tigers	CIN
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	KC
Trevor Williams	Pirates	STL
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	@STL
Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	@OAK
Brad Keller	Royals	@CWS
Matt Harvey	Reds	@WSH
Tyson Ross	Padres	@CHC
James Shields	White Sox	KC	@TB

Notables

• The starter to raise his stock the most through trade has to be Cole Hamels. Not only is he going from AL to NL, but it's to the perfect team. The Cubs have much better park factors than the Rangers do. Additionally, the Cubs boast a top-five defense by dWAR. It's easy to see why the Cubbies have supported left-handed hurlers so well and Hamels, although I'm not the biggest fan in 2018, will benefit from this setup.
• Another guy to boost his value is Nathan Eovaldi. Similarly to J.A. Happ, he moves within the AL East and no longer has to face the Red Sox (beautiful). While the park factors are worse, the defensive bump behind him helps even it out. By the way, the Rays totally won the risk of signing Eovaldi after his Tommy John surgery two years ago. Jalen Beeks is an interesting enough player to gamble on for the next few years.

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• Kyle Gibson has been rumored in deals, specifically with the Brewers and Athletics. So, Target Field is about in the middle of the pack in terms of park factors and dWAR. Both of these squads would pose an upgrade with the Athletics providing a boost in park factors and the Brewers posting the best defensive stats in the league. Reckless speculation never hurt anybody!
• I think it goes without saying that Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy would receive a boost in pitcher rankings in a trade. The Orioles have a terrible defense and are trading away all relievers that can actually hold a lead. Plus, it's not like a change of scenery for a Baltimore pitcher has ever hurt. (See Jake Arrieta and Eduardo Rodriguez most notably.)

Arms Amending

This is usually where I put the players that are on the disabled list or making rehab appearances. Not only is it important to know where they are in their recovery, but knowing who will be replacing them is key as well.

Name	Team	Injury	Stage	Return
James Paxton	Mariners	Lower back inflammation		Early August
Blake Snell	Rays	Shoulder fatigue		Early August
Yu Darvish	Cubs	Triceps inflammation	Bullpen work	Early August
Jake Faria	Rays	Oblique strain		Early August
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	Hip strain / blister	Rehab start - Double A	Early August
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	Pinched nerve in neck		Mid August
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	Left groin strain	Simulated game	Mid August
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	Shoulder fatigue / dead arm		Mid August
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	Right ankle sprain		Late August
Brandon McCarthy	Braves	Right knee tendinitis	Flat ground	Late August
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	Shoulder surgery	Bullpen work	Early September
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	Oblique strain		Early September
Shohei Ohtani	Angels	Grade 2 UCL sprain	Flat ground	Mid September
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	Oblique strain		Mid September
Michael Soroka	Braves	Shoulder soreness		Mid September

Notables

• Both James Paxton and Blake Snell are being cautious with their respective injuries. I don't believe that either of them will require a rehab start. This means they could return later in the week, in which case I would start them right out of the gate.
• Unfortunately for Marco Estrada, a rehab for one injury led to another one. His hip is totally fine after his Double-A start, but he developed a blister on his index finger. He will likely need another rehab appearance before rejoining the Jays.

I am told that Stephen Strasburg has been placed on the DL with what is preliminary being called a "pinched nerve" in his neck. Not an arm or shoulder issue.

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) July 26, 2018

• Do you ever sleep on your neck funny and feel pain only when you turn a certain way? Ask Stephen Strasburg how that feels when he is pitching. The Nationals have no choice but to be careful here, which makes their trade deadline plans that much more interesting. (Braves fans: whispers "Sell, sell. Good, good.")
• Eduardo Rodriguez is shedding the boot soon! This is wonderful news for a guy who was having a fantastic season.
• Remember all of the experts that told you to draft Jimmy Nelson late this year? He still hasn't started a rehab assignment yet. It's almost August. We need an automatic rule of drafting where you don't draft pitchers who underwent a major surgery the year before. Whether it's Tommy John, thoracic outlet, or shoulder surgery, I'm just not going there with pitchers until I see them back and healthy for real.

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