2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 5 Pitching Planner: Fingers Crossed

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What is up, my pitching planner people?! (Do I get points for alliteration? Oh, there is no point system. Noted.)

Hey, I wanted to take a second and jinx the entire fantasy baseball community. I will do this by saying that the injuries on the pitching front haven't been all that bad through the first month. The 'Arms Amending' section was shorter than it's ever been, which led me to think along these lines.

There were a couple of early season casualties due to Tommy John surgery. We saw starters like Taijuan Walker and Dinelson Lamet go under the knife along with prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon. Other than that though, can we really complain that much?

This is a good point to for me to stop myself and apologize for the inevitable fallout of pitchers in the final week of April. But hey, fingers crossed for health in the pitching community. Maybe the 10-day disabled list won't haunt all of us in our sleep as much in 2018 as it did in 2017.

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Tequila shot count for me saying that something was 'there' for a pitcher - zero. Still holding true to my word from back in Week 2. I'm actually reassessing articles to see if I've fallen back into this trap rather than write them with this in mind. I want to be fair to the audience.

2018 Fantasy Baseball Week 5 Pitching Planner

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Auto-Start

The Auto-Start tier strictly includes pitchers that should be started every week regardless of league size and matchup.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Chris Sale	Red Sox	KC	@TEX
Max Scherzer	Nationals	PIT	PHI
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	@ARI	@SD
Noah Syndergaard	Mets	ATL
Corey Kluber	Indians	TEX

Promoted

• I teased it in previous versions of this article, but the hammer has finally been dropped. Noah Syndergaard, welcome to the top tier!

Relegated

• No one is relegated yet. Yes, that means I'm keeping Clayton Kershaw here for the time being despite six walks against the Marlins at home. SIX!

Auto-Stream

This tier consists of pitchers who don't quite reach the trust level of the Auto-Starts. However, due to matchup or recent performance, they are capable of having elite level production in a given week.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Jacob deGrom	Mets	ATL
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	PIT
Shohei Ohtani	Angels	BAL	@SEA
Aaron Nola	Phillies	@MIA
Gerrit Cole	Astros	@ARI
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	CWS
Rich Hill	Dodgers	@ARI	@SD
Jose Berrios	Twins	@CWS
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	LAD
Luis Severino	Yankees	@HOU
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	TOR
James Paxton	Mariners	OAK
Justin Verlander	Astros	NYY	@ARI
Yu Darvish	Cubs	COL
Chris Archer	Rays	@DET	TOR
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	HOU
Charlie Morton	Astros	NYY	@ARI

Notables

• I fear that I missed out on Jose Berrios this year after not falling for the inflated ADP in 2018 drafts. However, I then remember that he had stark splits between the first and second halves last year. I'm not telling you to sell high - just keep that in mind before you put too much stock and emotional value in the first month. From what I've seen in Berrios' starts, I don't see much difference between this year and last so I'm just a little hesitant to fully buy in.
• You know who has been the best pitcher of 2018 so far? Well, I guess that's sort of opinionated. In my eyes, there is no debate though that Patrick Corbin has been the most dominant hurler to this point. Everything is working for this dude and it's no small sample when you back it up to midway through the 2017 season. I'm very comfortable putting him in this tier.

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• Boy, is Robbie Ray struggling this year or what? Why am I having deja vu? It's almost like he's still got a ~6 BB/9 since last time I wrote about him. How many more chances can I give him to stay in this tier? I love the dude, but sometimes you have to learn to let the ones you love go. Did this just turn into a Nicholas Sparks movie? Ugh, I need some sleep.
• I know that Shohei Ohtani gets mentioned in every article nowadays, but hear me out! Just keep a close watch on him and that mild ankle sprain. That's all! See, that wasn't so bad, right? (I am so here for the Ohtani madness. I bought a shirsey and I'm a Braves fan. Don't at me.)

Dream Stream

The Dream Stream group more closely reflects the pitchers that you are contemplating starting or sitting. These are all worthy starters in a typical 12-team mixed league.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	@SD
Blake Snell	Rays	@DET
Jake Arrieta	Phillies	@MIA	@WSH
J.A. Happ	Blue Jays	@TB
Garrett Richards	Angels	@SEA
Johnny Cueto	Giants	@ATL
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	@ARI
Alex Wood	Dodgers	@ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	KC	@TEX
Rick Porcello	Red Sox	@TEX
David Price	Red Sox	@TEX
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	SD
Michael Wacha	Cardinals	CWS
Joey Lucchesi	Padres	LAD
Tyler Mahle	Reds	MIA
Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	SF
Wei-Yen Chen	Marlins	@CIN
Lance McCullers Jr.	Astros	NYY
Sean Manaea	Athletics	@SEA
Nick Pivetta	Phillies	@WSH
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	PHI
Jarlin Garcia	Marlins	PHI	@CIN
Zack Godley	Diamondbacks	LAD
Tyson Ross	Padres	@SF
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	@WSH	@MIL
Tyler Skaggs	Angels	@SEA
Junior Guerra	Brewers	PIT
Drew Pomeranz	Red Sox	KC
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	COL
Jose Quintana	Cubs	@STL
Luke Weaver	Cardinals	CHC
Andrew Heaney	Angels	BAL
Miles Mikolas	Cardinals	CHC
Jon Lester	Cubs	COL	@STL
Michael Fulmer	Tigers	TB
Vince Velasquez	Phillies	@WSH
Dan Straily	Marlins	@CIN
Tanner Roark	Nationals	PIT	PHI
Derek Holland	Giants	SD
Trevor Bauer	Indians	TEX	@NYY
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	BAL
Kyle Gibson	Twins	TOR	@CWS
Jon Gray	Rockies	@CHC
Chase Anderson	Brewers	@CIN
Andrew Triggs	Athletics	@SEA	BAL
Masahiro Tanaka	Yankees	@HOU
Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	LAD	HOU
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	@KC
Matt Boyd	Tigers	TB	@KC
Dallas Keuchel	Astros	NYY

Notables

• Anyone noticing what ol' Kenta Maeda has been doing this year? He's basically doing what Alex Wood did in the early going of 2017 without as much fanfare. Another dominant start against the Padres could force my hand and cause me to promote him a tier.
• Okay, let's get this Tyler Mahle situation out of the way. He's playing the Marlins at home. Bam, that's it. WAIT A SECOND: there might actually be something here! Check out his K/BB and xFIP before writing this dude off. What I want you to do is stream him in Week 5 and hold if he performs well. There's an opportunity for value here.

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• Can I just start by saying that I'm not a Jarlin Garcia believer? Oh, I can because it's my article? Right. Anyway, Jarlin the Marlin is the darlin' of Miami here in the early going due largely to a 1.00 ERA flat and a couple of almost no-hitters. Left-on-base percentage says 'nah' at 99%. FIP and xFIP follow suit. His long-term upside is Ivan Nova with triple the walks. How does that sound? Super meh.

Buyer Beware

These pitchers are better left on your bench for the week if not the waiver wire. Guys closer to the top could be on the brink of being promoted in the right matchup or with a continued hot streak. If a player is not listed in any tiers, that should be the cue to drop the said player.

Player	Team	Opp1	Opp2
Steven Matz	Mets	ATL	COL
Sean Newcomb	Braves	@NYM
Chris Stratton	Giants	@ATL
Mike Soroka	Braves	@NYM	SF
Luis Castillo	Reds	MIL
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	@LAA
Chris Volstad	White Sox	MIN
Jack Flaherty	Cardinals	CHC
Ivan Nova	Pirates	@WSH
Zack Wheeler	Mets	COL
Yonny Chirinos	Rays	TOR
Clayton Richard	Padres	@SF
Brandon McCarthy	Braves	SF
Nick Tropeano	Angels	BAL
Marcus Stroman	Blue Jays	@MIN
Brent Suter	Brewers	@CIN
Daniel Mengden	Athletics	@SEA
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	MIN
Jake Faria	Rays	@DET	TOR
Sal Romano	Reds	MIA
Eric Lauer	Padres	@SF	LAD
Ian Kennedy	Royals	DET
German Marquez	Rockies	@NYM
Chad Kuhl	Pirates	@WSH	@MIL
Mike Clevinger	Indians	TEX	@NYY
Jhoulys Chacin	Brewers	@CIN	PIT
Marco Gonzales	Mariners	LAA
Jason Vargas	Mets	COL
Aaron Sanchez	Blue Jays	@MIN	@TB
Tyler Anderson	Rockies	@CHC
Tyler Chatwood	Cubs	@STL
Jake Odorizzi	Twins	@CWS
Jakob Junis	Royals	@BOS	DET
Trevor Williams	Pirates	@MIL
Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	TB	@KC
Zack Davies	Brewers	PIT
Kevin Gausman	Orioles	@OAK
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	@MIN	@TB
Julio Teheran	Braves	@NYM
Mike Fiers	Tigers	@KC
Cole Hamels	Rangers	@CLE
Eric Skoglund	Royals	DET
Mike Minor	Royals	BOS
CC Sabathia	Yankees	CLE
Steven Brault	Pirates	@WSH
Jaime Garcia	Blue Jays	@CLE
Bartolo Colon	Rangers	BOS
Danny Duffy	Royals	@BOS
Dillon Peters	Marlins	PHI
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	OAK	LAA
Jose Urena	Marlins	PHI
Jeremy Hellickson	Nationals	PIT
Chad Bettis	Rockies	@NYM
Lance Lynn	Twins	TOR	@CWS
Homer Bailey	Reds	MIL
Jason Hammel	Royals	@BOS	DET
Matt Koch	Diamondbacks	LAD	HOU
Ty Blach	Giants	@ATL
Kyle Freeland	Rockies	@CHC	@NYM
Erasmo Ramirez	Mariners	OAK
Joe Biagini	Blue Jays	@CLE
Doug Fister	Rangers	@CLE
Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	@HOU	CLE
Brandon Finnegan	Reds	MIL	MIA
Mike Leake	Mariners	LAA
Sonny Gray	Yankees	@HOU	CLE

Notables

• Keep an eye on Julio Teheran this weekend as he had a bit of an injury scare in his last start. After velocity readings were consistently down, it was discovered that he had trapezius tightness. Braves manager Brian Snitker didn't show much concern though and even said that Teheran would likely make his next scheduled start.
• Holy hell, Luis Castillo. The fantasy community needs to learn from this - we get burned on these types of players with small sample sizes every year. Now you're forced to hold him and hope he turns it around. I'm certainly sitting him in normal-sized leagues against the Brew Crew.

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• As a Braves fan, I'm allowed to recklessly speculate on this prospect in this week's version of Tyler's Simplistic Scouting Spotlight. My (non-existent) sources tell me that Mike Soroka will get called to take the spot of Anibal Sanchez. At 6'5", it's incredible how precise this dude is with all of his pitches. With an incredible feel for all five pitches and a fast tempo, he can manipulate hitters well. All the scouts will say 'he is not overpowering', but I see a perceived velocity so much faster than what the radar reads. Temper expectations for the 21-year-old, but I believe he can be a steady streaming option for fantasy staffs in 2018.
• When researching rotations this week, Chris Volstad made me say 'WHO?!' aloud in a room full of people. While his 2018 numbers are decent, we have a long career of a 1.8 K/BB and 1.5 HR/9 so don't waste your time here.

Arms Amending

This is usually where I put the players that are on the disabled list or making rehab appearances. Not only is it important to know where they are in their recovery, but knowing who will be replacing them is key as well.

Player	Team	Injury	Return
Luiz Gohara	Braves	Sprained ankle	Early May
Ervin Santana	Twins	Finger surgery	Late May
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	Elbow inflammation	Late May
Joe Musgrove	Pirates	Strained shoulder	Late May
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	Strained lat	Late May
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	Tommy John surgery	June
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	Fractured finger	June
Danny Salazar	Indians	Shoulder inflammation	June
Carlos Rodon	White Sox	Shoulder surgery	June
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	Strained oblique	June
Nathan Eovaldi	Rays	Elbow issues	June
Shelby Miller	Diamondbacks	Tommy John surgery	Late June
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	Shoulder surgery	All-Star Break
Julio Urias	Dodgers	Shoulder surgery	All-Star Break
Matt Shoemaker	Angels	Strained forearm	All-Star Break

Notables

• The Braves pitching staff will be emboldened once Luiz Gohara returns from an ankle injury. There are multiple reports out there saying that he will debut in Week 6 of the fantasy season against the Rays. Now is your last chance to stash him off waivers if you are looking for strikeout upside in your 12-team leagues.
• Veteran Adam Wainwright is suffering from the ever-vague elbow inflammation. There is no timetable on his return and I imagine the Cardinals will take it slow with him. In Waino's absence, talented rookie Jack Flaherty will attempt to steal his spot.

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• I may have underestimated how long Ervin Santana would be out in the previous articles. He hasn't even begun mound work yet. This leads me to believe that we are least a couple of weeks away from a real rehab assignment. Optimists will follow the chart and say 'late May', just know that it could be longer.

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