Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football ADP Movers

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Average Draft Position, ADP, is very valuable data to have at your disposal during drafts. However, it can be very misleading too. ADP data is collected over a long period of time on most sites so the current ADP is not always reflected if a player has moved up or down significantly.

The most obvious example here is Adrian Peterson. He was not being drafted in most re-draft leagues up until a few days ago. This has led to his ADP on Fantasy Pros to be 197. If you are in your draft and using ADP as a reference for where you might be able to pick him, you might think you could get him in the last round of a 16 round draft easy. That is not even close to the case now. He is easily going in the 12th round, probably higher.

Now that might have been a bit extreme of a case since I would hope most of you would know you could not get him that late. My point is still the same though. ADP data is very useful, but you need to know when it is out of date and common logic needs to prevail.


2018 Fantasy Football ADP Movers

To help figure out some more realistic ADP, I have analyzed the data from Fantasy Football Calculator. Below I will point out some of the players who have had their ADP rise or fall the most since the end of July and if I think their ADP reflects their correct draft value.

*Note: ADP numbers came from standard scoring leagues

Risers

Below is a chart that shows the running backs and their ADP from July 25th compared to August 23rd.

2018 Fantasy Football ADP Movers

Credit: Keith Lott, data provided by Fantasy Football Calculator

Marquise Goodwin, WR, San Francisco 49ers (-40 spots)

I liked Goodwin entering the season, hearing the fact that he was Jimmy Garoppolo‘s (who has moved from QB9 to QB11 in the recent ADP, swapping spots with Andrew Luck) favorite target in camp only helped me confirm that feeling.

The lightning-fast Goodwin should have a good season in San Fran, but his ADP has exceeded his true value in my opinion. If he was there in the sixth round I would be happy to take him. Now he is going in the early fifth. That is ahead of proven players like Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and just after Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry and Demaryius Thomas. I’ll take all of them any day ahead of Goodwin who has not proven anything yet.

Verdict: Drafted too early.

Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos (-38 spots)

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Back in July in my Denver Broncos Preview, I said I thought Freeman would take over as the starter. Now that looks like it happening, his ADP is skyrocketing.

Now I also said I think this is going to be a committee approach most of the season if not all of it. So you can’t draft him expecting him to be a workhorse back.

Still, the skillset is there for him to be on the field for all situations (early-downs, passing downs, goal line), so he could be one of the biggest draft values of the season.

Verdict: Drafted about right, and I’m even OK with a slight reach if you want him.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders (-31 spots)

Lynch started off the 2017 season very slow and was overall very touchdown dependent. That said he finished fairly strong (except for that fumble in Week 16 that cost me a championship. Seriously I lost by 0.6) finishing the season with 891 yards and seven touchdowns.

Despite the overall useful season the Raiders went out and signed Doug Martin. I immediately thought, along with many, that this was headed toward a full-blown committee. A bit more time to reflect on this situation and I have corrected my initial rankings and the ADP has corrected right with it. This should be Lynch first, especially in the red zone, with Martin simply filling in.

Still, Lynch is nothing more than a safe, low-end RB2, with little upside. I will probably not own him in any leagues as my strategy will be to get two of the guys above him and then fill in the rest with guys that have more potential to surpass their draft value.

Verdict: Correct value, but leery to draft him there.

Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers (-19 spots)

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OK so since I’ve patted myself on the back twice already, its time to pump the breaks a little and admit when I was wrong.

I was all over Aaron Jones in the Packers backfield, despite the two-game suspension. I really thought Jones was going to be the guy to own here as he was the clearly the better running back when on the field last season, finishing with 5.5 yards per carry.

It is not just the suspension, but also an injury to Jones has given Williams the chance to separate himself this preseason. And according to Mike McCarthy, he has done just that. Part of me still thinks that Jones will take over, but its hard to draft that way right now especially given the ESPN article.


Verdict: Correct value

Fallers

Below is a chart that shows the Quarterbacks with an ADP of 100 or less on July 25th compared to August 23rd.

2018 Fantasy Football ADP Movers

Credit: Keith Lott, data provided by Fantasy Football Calculator

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins (+36 spots)

I know a lot of this is due to his broken finger and his questionable availability to start of the season, but there is more here. He was struggling to start camp, specifically not being able to get any separation from corner Xavien Howard.

Parker came into the league in 2015 with a lot of fanfare, only to disappoint three straight season. OK fine, we’ll give him a pass last year with Jay Cutler passing to him. Either way you look at it though, the former first-round pick has been not lived up to expectations and likely would not have this year at his previous ADP. The injury may have saved many of you from drafting a bust and getting him where you should have.

Verdict: Correct value

Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+35 spots)

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This one makes perfect sense to me. If one receiver for a team moves up 40 spots in ADP, then there must be an adjustment to another. By the way, that other receiver is Marquise Goodwin who I discussed above.

I’m not sure I agree with how far the hate has gone with Garcon though. Yes, he lacks some upside but he is now being drafted after Allen Hurns, D.J. Moore, Mike Williams and just ahead of Calvin Ridley and Kenny Stills. Really? This is a guy who caught 40 passes for 500 yards last year in just eight games with bad quarterback play.

The 49ers are set up to pass the ball a lot this year. So there is no reason to think Garcon should not be able to get close to double his 2017 numbers. Oh and actually find the end zone now that he has a capable quarterback.

Verdict: Drafted too late

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+24 spots)

This one surprises me. Recency bias, good or bad, usually sticks with people longer than this.

Woods in 12 games last season was the No. 17 receiver in Fantasy Football. He caught 56 passes for 781 yards and five touchdowns.

Now I get it, the Rams upgraded from Sammy Watkins to Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp is expected to take a second-year jump. But I see no reason why Woods can’t at least replicate these same numbers (for the record if he plays 16 games he will beat them). Also just so you know even with only playing 12 games he finished at WR30. He is being drafted below that right now.

Verdict: Drafted too late

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (+21 spots)

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Oh, the Seattle running back situation. Did you really think I was going to get through this article without bringing it up?

Penny, the Seahawks first round pick was immediately being discussed as the running back to own there. Made a lot of sense, the running game has not been good in years and they drafted a guy in the first round. He has to be the guy right?

Well, Chris Carson had his own idea of how this was going to play out. He has been outperforming Penny all throughout camp and getting praise from the coaches. You can ignore camp speak all you want, fine, I get that, I really do. What you can’t ignore is the fact that Carson has been getting more first-team reps and Penny suffered a broken finger, although he is expected to be back by Week 1. The last thing you can’t ignore is now there are reports that Penny is 16 pounds heavier than his draft weight of 220, that’s the last thing you want to hear.

All of those add up to Carson being the guy in Seattle, at least to start the season. This has led to Penny’s stock dropping a lot and for good reason.


Verdict: Slightly drafted too high


Visit the F6P Fantasy Football Draft Kit Page for more advice to prepare for the 2018 season.

2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit Categories
RankingsPosition PreviewsTeam PreviewsSleepersBusts

About Joe Bond

Not just another "Average Joe" when it comes to Fantasy Sports, he is the fantasy brain trust behind the FantasySixPack.net website. Joe is one of the Experts included in the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings for Football, Baseball and Basketball and finished well each year. You can find him on Twitter, @F6P_Joe, where he is waiting by the keyboard for your question.

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