2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2018 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft List


You may think they’re the greatest thing since sliced bread. You may have followed their careers since they were in high school. But you should ask with your doctor to see if your 2018 fantasy football quarterback is right for you.

If only there was an option to do so. Full disclaimer: You definitely shouldn’t consult your doctor on fantasy football advice. That is unless they’ve won multiple leagues in the past and you don’t plan on going back for actual medical advice.

The quarterback position is always a hot topic in fantasy, but every year even the biggest names in football aren’t enough to save your team. Just because a quarterback is still available in a certain round of your draft, it doesn’t mean they’re the best option for you at the moment. There’s a good chance you’re overpaying just to have your favorite player on your team.

2018 Fantasy Football Quarterback Do Not Draft List

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Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

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Most fantasy experts have done their best to temper expectations for Deshaun Watson this season. It’s hard not to get excited about someone who had a historic run for six games; especially when throwing to a great tandem of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. However, the chances of Watson repeating the same touchdown percentage are slim to none.

In some drafts, Watson is a preference before Aaron Rodgers. This is akin to putting your life savings into hitting 21 when you have a king and a nine. The talent is undoubtedly there and no one is questioning that. But unless Watson falls on your lap in the 6th round or later, you’re better off looking at proven value in such an early round.

At a current ADP of 39, Watson poses both a risk as well as an overpay. Significantly safer options like Doug Baldwin, Alex Collins and Adam Thielen could still be on the board at that time.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

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Just like Watson, Wentz is coming off a nasty, season-ending injury. So far, the reports of his progress in camp have been great despite being held out of a number of drills.

Expected at 100% health by Week 1, Wentz’s fantasy stock is still quite high considering he tore his ACL in December of last year. He is currently going at the end of the 6th round; where many drafters are considering a tight end, quarterback or flex option.

The temptation is certainly there for drafting Wentz. The Eagles are fresh off a Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots without him as the starting quarterback. It’s quite possible too that they are a better team than last year.

However, this certainly doesn’t justify Wentz’s current ADP with quarterback options of Cam Newton, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins all available just beneath him. Not to mention a plethora of WR2 targets such as Marvin Jones and Corey Davis hanging around as well.

If pre-season reports continue to run in Wentz’s favor, expect the ADP to lower even more. Dropping even a few more spots would put his ADP just beneath Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, who are both in a tier of their own.

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

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Jimmy certainly passes the eye test, but does he pass the fantasy test?

Within minutes of coming into his first 49ers game, Garoppolo scored a touchdown with ease. Combine that with studying for years under the tutelage of a five-time Super Bowl champion – it’s hard not to pull the trigger.

In this case, it’s far too early to answer the fantasy test. From an ADP-centric perspective, the answer is no. Currently drafting in the 9th round, Jimmy has all of the talent in the world but lacks weapons in a receiver-starved offense.

Sure, one can make the argument that Marquise Goodwin looked great in his brief time with Garoppolo last year. However, with the return of Pierre Garcon, nothing is guaranteed in their receiving corps; especially with so many question marks surrounding the entire team. How will Kyle Shanahan use his running backs? Will Garoppolo continue his success from last year?

At this stage in the draft, sleeper candidates start to show up. The BroncosEmmanuel Sanders, now fortunate enough to have an experienced quarterback in Case Keenum, could easily be a valuable pick at this stage. Chris Thompson could be available too, a matchup winner for numerous teams last year until he inevitably went down with an injury.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

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ADP is the visualization of both rumors and speculation on a real-time basis. In laymen’s terms, it’s the numerical hype-train. One month ago, Luck was just entering the arena. Two months ago, no one was sure he would return this season at all. “I’m not touching him or any Colt this season” and “Luck has no luck he’s made of glass” pepper the comment sections and fantasy boards.

And yet, every time Luck is asked, he adamantly states he is 100% healthy. Scouting reports confirm this as well.

Since these reports, it’s “He’s the best steal of the draft” and “I’m drafting him over Cam any day” which is all fine and dandy for the blissfully ignorant. At an ADP of 91.5, he squeaks past Matthew Stafford.

Stafford, mind you, hasn’t missed a game in seven years. His interceptions have decreased as well as the years have gone by; throwing just 20 in the last two seasons (fewer than both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson).

Time will tell whether or not the Andrew Luck of 2016 is back, of course.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

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Jared Goff enters his third year in the league and second under the leadership of Sean McVay. Gifted with a shiny, new $81 million-dollar investment of Brandon Cooks, Goff has a much-improved deep ball threat. It’s easy to see why his stock continues to rise within the fantasy community. Goff continued to trend upward in 2017, and with an improved defense, should continue in that direction in 2018 too. However, his ADP is incredibly deceptive.

With options like Philip Rivers available several rounds later, who has quietly been a top-12 QB in 8 of the last 10 seasons, it’s hard to justify a pick on Goff at his current ADP. It’s important to note that Goff adds next to nothing with his legs; accumulating just 51 yards last year and 16 yards in 2016. While average for a pocket passer, it’s the sheer number of viable fantasy options at the quarterback position that make Goff a do not draft candidate.

Round 11, where Goff is currently drafting, marks the start of the back-end of the draft, when those that have had a couple of drinks start to lose interest. It’s those precious moments where you find gold nuggets such as last year’s Alvin Kamara (13th round) or Evan Engram (14th round) . This is where spending a pick on spec is worthwhile.

Come draft day, it’s important to remember that quarterback production is much easier to replace than a running back’s. Remember too, you can only start one quarterback per week versus the two or three potential starters at running back. Of course, like any of the other aforementioned quarterbacks, if Goff falls to the 12th or beyond, there’s no reason not to pick him up.

Visit the F6P Fantasy Football Draft Kit Page for more advice to prepare for the 2018 season.

2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit Categories
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About Ryan Turner

Ryan is a longtime fantasy football enthusiast and writer for several fantasy sports sites. A fan of playing the matchup, Ryan’s articles often focus on game scripts and how a player fits into their coach’s scheme. You can follow him on Twitter @turnercryan

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  1. Pingback: 2018 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List - Fantasy Six Pack

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