Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Welcome back! It is time for the Week 10 defense streaming chart known for its strange name. When I first started doing this chart, I didn’t think it would gain this much traction or else I would’ve thought of a better name for it. Alas, here we are a couple of years later!

Warning: It is an UGLY week for streaming defenses. What’s worse is that next week could be an even uglier week for streaming defenses. The struggle is going to be real this week though with only nine defenses that I’m comfortable starting in Week 10. NINE! And that doesn’t even mean I’m excited to play a couple of them.

Instead of sulking though, look at this as an opportunity to find that perfect option with a nice floor and ceiling. Week 10 – let’s run it!


2018 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
139.0Jets70.6BUF502826282626
127.0Bears97.0DET502418163232
109.0Rams97.0SEA502025142817
108.0Patriots66.3TEN002327182020
104.0Bills19.6NYJ001815261431
100.0Eagles75.4DAL50262811921
97.0Chiefs76.4ARI50272125136
96.0Packers17.0MIA55251723129
96.0Chargers66.8OAK002120211618
82.0Redskins52.2TB0081427258
80.0Colts14.3JAX501912221111
78.049ers7.0NYG5022228615
78.0Seahawks21.9LAR0029102928
76.0Giants1.0SF0017242447
72.0Steelers35.2CAR5015672712
69.0Jaguars77.3IND00111151527
67.0Cowboys56.5PHI00121931716
66.0Titans31.9NE5095122213
64.0Cardinals18.7KC0014132125
62.0Falcons4.8CLE0016231733
61.0Browns16.0ATL5071341022
60.0Dolphins35.7GB0551621814
60.0Texans88.7BYE----0----3030
59.0Panthers60.4PIT006292319
55.0Vikings88.7BYE----0----3124
53.0Broncos52.9BYE----0----2429
51.0Saints13.7CIN001382055
51.0Lions7.2CHI0010111974
42.0Ravens77.8BYE----0----1923
37.0Buccaneers1.0WAS501410521
31.0Bengals3.9NO50431810
24.0Raiders6.8LAC5037612

Defenses on Bye Week: Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Vikings

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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I mean, I was going to pick a different game, but did you see the way the Jets and Bills played last week? What if this game was even uglier than the Dolphins-Jets game from last week? Who the hell would put themselves through the torture of watching these two teams compete in a strugglefest for the ages? This game could finish with a point total under 20 and I wouldn’t even laugh.

All of the Nathan Peterman statistics about improving his interception percentage and QBR are hilarious. Keep feeding them to me. I’m sure that everyone has already attempted to snag them in your league, especially if you read my article last week. The Bills offense is going to make every defense in the league look like an All-Pro defense. Every single one.

Additionally, the Jets offense has been abysmal after that Week 1 explosion. Could you possibly stream the Bills defense against them though? We might just have to address that question a little further down the page…

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

I’m going to go rogue a bit here and pick the BrownsFalcons matchup in Cleveland. These are two bad defenses and I’m expecting fireworks to fly in the Dawg Pound.

The Falcons offense should have no qualms against this Cleveland opposition. Atlanta has been on a roll the last few weeks and their offense is starting to feel like their 2016 version rather than their 2017 one.

However, what are we to think about this Cleveland offense against the Atlanta defense? Cleveland’s offense has been easy to stream defenses against the past few weeks, but can we trust that again with this Atlanta defense? If you’ve read my work before, you know I hate starting bottom third defenses at all. It’s almost an automatic ignore if they are in the bottom third in DVOA and fantasy points. The Falcons are third worst in BOTH of those categories.

Fire up your Browns players this week, my people. Don’t get cute and try to stream the Falcons DST.

Notables

Buffalo Bills, DST5 (19.6%)

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Alright, so the Bills are the laughing stock of the football world. Rightfully so, as they’ve done next to nothing to show optimism moving forward. I guess Josh Allen had his moments, but we haven’t seen him in a couple of weeks. When you’ve got EJ Manuel making jokes about Nathan Peterman, you know it’s a problem.



However, the defense hasn’t been that bad this year. In fact, one could argue that if they had a better offense that didn’t constantly put them in bad positions, they could be one of the better defenses in the league. They are a fringe top 10 defense according to ProFootballFocus standards just recently. Don’t let some of these recent box scores fool you – the quarterbacks are giving away pick-sixes like they’re Christmas gifts.

This week, I don’t see any way the Jets offense can move the ball with any conviction. So, hopefully, your league sets the points allowed setting to ignore defensive scores. If so, this Bills defense is going to be stream-worthy in a dull week. The Stream-O-Matic chart has them all the way up at 5th in the rankings. I would rather have my next notable defense, but you can start the Bills as a DST1 in Week 10.

Green Bay Packers, DST8 (17.0%)

How are the Packers only 17% owned this week? Brock Osweiler is coming off multiple stinkers in a row. The Dolphins have been in some ugly games lately and are a 9.5 point underdog going into Lambeau Field.

So, what’s got everyone worried? It has to be the quality of the Packers defense. As mentioned before, I am very skeptical of playing bottom third defenses and Green Bay is no exception. They are 12th worst by DVOA and 9th worst by fantasy points per game. That’s not exactly comforting.

However, look at the big picture here. I’ve already explained how terrible the Dolphins are. Furthermore, think about the stark weather change they will be facing this week. Three of their last four games have been in Miami with the fourth being in Houston. Without diving too much into it, it’s reasonable to say that the Dolphins haven’t braved the elements yet in the 2018 season, right? Well, in Week 10, they head to Wisconsin in what is expected to be below-freezing and possibly windy conditions. Osweiler and the offense won’t know what hit them.

Just from a ‘gut feeling’ perspective, despite what the DVOA numbers say, I’m feeling really good about the Packers defense for fantasy this weekend. They’ll be put in a favorable position according to Vegas odds – it’s just a matter of capitalizing on Miami mistakes.

Washington Redskins, DST10 (52.2%)

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If you miss out on the Nifty Nine™ this week, you’ll be searching for a needle in a haystack. Even then, it could prick you. How does one lose a needle in a haystack anyway? Are you sewing in a barn? What’s going on? I need another beer.

Anyway, let’s check out this Redskins defense against Tampa Bay this week. The Redskins do one thing really well and that is slow games down. The Buccaneers like to speed games up and can get a little antsy. This should be a pretty evenly contested matchup with completely opposing styles – you don’t see that often!

So, how can the Redskins defense step up to the task? Well, they will have to be very opportunistic. The Buccaneers give up a fair amount of sacks and are one of the worst teams in turnover ratio. That’s a good start. The Redskins on a per-play basis are very good at forcing turnovers. Remember that – on a per-play basis. If the Bucs do speed the game up, that gives the Washington defense more chances to force Ryan Fitzpatrick into bad decisions.

Look, I’m grasping at straws here. I hope you already got one of the other defenses I mentioned!

Early Top 10 for Week 11

Listen to these offenses that will be on bye this week: 49ers, Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots. Besides the last team in that list, those are typically the ones you like to stream against. So, it may make sense now more than ever to use that extra roster spot on a Week 11 defense. Let’s check out what the early Stream-O rankings say for Week 11:

  1. Cardinals (vs. OAK)
  2. Bears (vs. MIN)
  3. Seahawks (vs. GB)
  4. Steelers (at JAX)
  5. Texans (at WAS)
  6. Chargers (vs. DEN)
  7. Panthers (at DET)
  8. Redskins (vs. HOU)
  9. Colts (vs. TEN)
  10. Vikings (at CHI)

The only teams here that were featured in Week 10’s DST1 range are the Bears, Chargers, and Redskins. So, odds are you will be streaming someone completely new in Week 11.

That Texans-Redskins matchup is one that I’m avoiding for defenses. It’s going to be more of a slugfest than anything and probably not incredibly conducive to fantasy points. The Cardinals and Steelers both are available in a large percentage of leagues and are my top streams for Week 11. I can’t imagine the Seahawks or Vikings being as useful as these rankings suggest, but I actually don’t mind the Colts defense against an inconsistent Titans offense. Finally, if I had to add one defense to this mix, it would be the Ravens defense against the AJ Green-less Bengals.

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About Tyler Thompson

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