Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football Week 11 Drop List: Matchups and Trends Edition


We are already past half-way and gearing up for the final stretch of the 2018 fantasy football regular season.  It is important to separate subjectivity from objectivity when finalizing rosters for that end-of-the-year playoff push.

I put emphasis on overall player touches, quarterback confidence, and remaining strength of schedule.  As my four weekly readers know, I put targets and touches far above hype and size.

Rushing attempts, passing attempts, and overall passing targets will point you in the direction of what to do with a player. Quarterback confidence is a measure of trust in pressure situations or red/end zone chances, imperative for fantasy success.  Finally, remaining strength of schedule determines which matchups to exploit or which games will have an abundance or lack of offensive snaps.

2018 Fantasy Football Week 11 Drop List

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When you get to that fork in the road, choose the path of no return for these fantasy football players:

Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions

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Yes, they pulled off the 20-19 win against the Carolina Panthers at home, though I find this more the Panthers losing than the Lions winning.  In that game Kerryon Johnson went down with a sprained knee.  While reports indicate this won’t require surgery, he will be missing the Thanksgiving Day game at the minimum.  A loss to an important skill player is never good, as the Lions already traded away Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Matthew Stafford has only passed for over 300 yards three times this season, and has only eclipsed 20 fantasy points twice in standard leagues.  Over the past four games, Stafford has only five touchdown passes, with three interceptions and two lost fumbles.  His quarterback rating (QBR) has yet to eclipse triple digits over the past four weeks. His total QBR is 93.2 so far on the season, his lowest since 2015.

The Lions are home against two top defenses in upcoming weeks, the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams.  They travel to Arizona in week 14, a team defense with 13 sacks over the past four weeks allowing only 62 points over that time.  Times do not get any easier for Stafford, and with a lack of overall offensive production on a team who has eclipsed 30 total points once this season, the writing is on the wall.

Stop lying to yourself and move on from Stafford in 12 teams and smaller, and I would look to get creative with other options in 14 team leagues and larger.

Mike and Tyrell Williams, Wide Receivers, Los Angeles Chargers

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I am a victim of holding on to one, if not both, of these receivers for too long this year.

Tyrell Williams had two monster games in weeks six and seven in 2018.  Only to be held to two, four, and two catches over the past three weeks, respectively.  Even with his touchdown catch in week nine, he failed to eclipse double digits in fantasy points since his week eight bye.

Yes, he did have a season high six targets over the past two weeks, but doesn’t seem to make that big consistent leap forward.  With 23, 24, and 22 receiving yards in the past three games, fantasy teams on the cusp of the playoffs need more reliability from their players down the stretch.

Williams the Younger

Another Charger’s wide out, Mike Williams, makes this list as well.  Since week four he has caught nine balls, with only two touchdowns.  Yikes.  Yes, he is a freak athlete and deserves attention, but Phillip Rivers is just not looking his way either.  He has yet to eclipse 100 receiving yards in a game and totals less than 400 receiving yards for the 2018 fantasy football season.

The Los Angeles Chargers face Arizona at home, away at Pittsburgh, and then home against the Bengals in week 14.  The pass defenses for Pittsburgh and Arizona are in the top eight in total pass yards allowed per game, and top three in the NFL in sack percentage (Sack Percentage measures the rate at which a team sacks the opposing teams quarterback for every passing play the opponent attempts).

The trending numbers for these two William’s receivers, upcoming schedule, and an offense that simply does not feature their WR2 and WR3, I’d stop lying to myself and cut the cord.

Jamaal Williams, Running Back, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Wilkins, Running Back, Indianapolis Colts

Javorius Allen, Running Back, Baltimore Ravens

It is clear that Aaron Jones is the featured running back for the Green Bay Packers. It took Mike McCarthy about six weeks too long to realize what he had in front of him.

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Jamaal Williams has less than eight rushing attempts in each game since week four and only one rushing touchdown on the season.  He is an after-thought on a team who has just turned to other players in their offensive attack.  Jamaal Williams is merely a handcuff. His fantasy value is all but void pending an Aaron Jones injury this season.  Move on, nothing to see here.

Jordan Wilkins started the season with 14 and 10 rushing attempts, though not doing much with them, the Indianapolis Colts have transitioned to Marlon Mack for the bulk of their rushing plays.  Yes, Wilkins did have his first rushing touchdown this past week against Tennessee at home, but four carries for 30 yards and a score tied his high for fantasy points this season in standard leagues.

Roster Consistency

As the season moves along it is important to roster consistency and upside in both volume and scoring.  Wilkins has none of this. He lacks fantasy value I want on my bench going forward in 2018.

Javorius “Buck” Allen saw zero rushing attempts in week eight and one rushing attempt over the past two games for Baltimore. Ty Montgomery and the emergence of Gus Edwards in week 11 were two bad signs for Buck Allen’s outlook. While he has had some PPR value, he had zero targets this past week with Lamar Jackson under center.

The crowded rushing scene for the Ravens and the question mark at quarterback spells uncertainty for Allen going forward.  Yes, the strength of schedule going forward for Baltimore’s running backs is stellar, but I can’t get excited about Buck Allen.  I’d move on in all leagues or maybe pair in a trade for a more consistent player down the stretch before the deadline.

Jimmy Graham, Tight End, Green Bay Packers

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I am a Packers fan.  I am a Jimmy Graham fan.  He suffered a broken thumb in week 11’s Thursday Night Football loss to the Seahawks.  Reports suggest he is going to try and play through the injury as the team tries to “work with different splints and protections” to keep him on the field.

That’s the good news.

Since the week 7 bye, Graham has seven total catches on twelve targets.  He has two total receiving touchdowns in 2018 on a team that historically doesn’t feature tight ends in their air attack. Yes, the Packers have a lot of injuries.  Their response, however, has been to feature Aaron Jones and Davante Adams for most of their offensive snaps.

The Packers have the fifth-toughest strength of schedule remaining for tight ends.  They face the Vikings on the road, Cardinals at home, and the Falcons at home over the next three weeks.  I don’t like the matchups, and I don’t like that a player I am counting on to put up numbers is playing with a broken bone…period.  Look elsewhere.

All Defenses With Poor Matchups

I am big on streaming defenses, especially in crunch time.  Defenses are sneaky ways to put up fantasy points down the stretch.  I have a tendency to hold onto multiple team defenses who I know have good upcoming matchups, two or three weeks in advance.

The New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and Green Bay Packers have enticing matchups on the horizon.  The Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and New York Jets face tough matchups over the next few weeks, and are teams I am leaving on the wire.

Instead of placing a huge emphasis on recent sack totals or big games, take a step back.  I try to find offenses that have been struggling (with game play or injuries), and add defenses with potential to exploit these recent weaknesses.

I hope that helps.  Good luck this week, everyone.

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Find me on Twitter @LuftCT

Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About Christopher T. Luft

Christopher Luft is from Connecticut and graduated from Providence College with a BS degree in Biology. He went to Optometry school at the Pennsylvania College of Optometry and completed an ocular disease residency at the Wilmington, Delaware VA. Chris loves to cook, spend time with his wife, practice and study jiu-jitsu, and of course, fantasy sports.

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  1. Pingback: 2018 Fantasy Football Week 13 Drop List: Think Don’t Feel - Fantasy Six Pack

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