Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football Week 12 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Anyone else still high from that Monday Night Football game? I’ll just have to write this thing while under the influence of football, I suppose.

After a couple of difficult weeks of streaming defenses, things open up in the next couple of weeks. There are plenty of streamable defenses out there on waiver wires this week due to previous bye weeks and nice matchups.

Without further delay, how about we skip the chit-chat and dive into the chart?


2018 Fantasy Football Week 12 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
143.0Texans88.6TEN502630232930
124.0Jaguars77.5BUF002727291427
122.0Chargers85.3ARI502921271723
120.0Bears97.3DET002117183232
119.0Ravens86.0OAK503022152126
115.0Bills33.2JAX502315172431
104.0Steelers71.4DEN002012203022
103.5Vikings89.1GB5018.51923128
102.5Colts23.3MIA5022202515.515
99.0Patriots58.6NYJ002516281317
93.0Redskins68.9DAL00142852818
91.0Broncos39.9PIT50123162629
90.0Titans40.1HOU001526241213
79.5Panthers65.9SEA5018.529999
78.5Cowboys36.7WAS502814415.512
75.0Bengals38.4CLE5017231965
75.0Browns10.0CIN00117221124
72.5Seahawks16.6CAR009.59102321
72.0Eagles63.6NYG502425657
70.0Cardinals60.6LAC0046132225
67.0Buccaneers4.9SF508242622
65.049ers7.7TB0031130714
65.0Jets23.4NE5054122019
64.5Packers21.8MIN009.51071820
58.0Lions5.7CHI501382183
58.0Saints25.0ATL50161331011
46.0Giants4.5PHI007181146
44.0Dolphins12.4IND002114198
43.0Rams92.8BYE----------2716
35.0Chiefs51.3BYE----------2510
24.0Raiders3.8BAL0065814
8.0Falcons10.6NO0012131

Defenses on Bye Week: Chiefs, Rams

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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37 point over/under. Two teams with 3-7 records. The worst and fourth-worst scoring offenses. Josh Allen and Blake Bortles.

Did you fall asleep yet?

This is going to be a real slugfest between the Bills and Jaguars in Buffalo. If you are watching Red Zone, you’ll likely forget that this game is even happening in the 1 PM slot. If this game were a Thanksgiving dish, I don’t want to play that game because everyone else is doing it to excess. Bet you didn’t know where that sentence was going! (I didn’t either.)

Of course, you are streaming the Jaguars against this horrendous Buffalo offense. However, what about the Bills defense? They are ranked 6th on the Stream-O-Matic chart, so that shows plenty of confidence by the numbers. More on them later…

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

Well, the Rams and Chiefs may be on a bye after their barn burner of a Monday nighter. But, have no fear – the Saints are still a-marching!

Those Saints will host the Falcons in a divisional matchup that always provides fireworks. Both squads are fighting their own battles in the playoff picture and their gameplay this week should reflect that. The Saints offense cannot be stopped. The Falcons are coming off of back-to-back ugly losses, but they always seem to play up in divisional games. They’ll likely be playing from behind the entire game.

Hence, many points should be scored. But you knew this, so let’s move on!

Notables

Buffalo Bills, DST6 (33.2%)

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Most people don’t understand just how good the Bills defense has been this season. They are the top-rated pass defense by DVOA standards and ranked 10th in run defense. There are only four other defenses that rank in the top 10 in both run and pass defense by DVOA ratings: the Bears, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars.

What I like best about this is that this top-rated pass defense is that they will naturally be able to handle Blake Bortles and that sloppy passing offense. They can really turn up the heat on stopping Leonard Fournette up the middle without giving up too much through the air.

The gameplan here is pretty simple, really, and the Bills off a bye week should be a fairly safe stream in Week 12.

Indianapolis Colts, DST9 (23.3%)

Well, I low-key dogged the Colts defense last week as a defense I wasn’t excited to stream. In fact, in one of my leagues, I forwent (forgoed?) playing a defense in favor of keeping Elijah McGuire on my roster. The Colts defense was the best option available and I ignored them. They ended up holding the Titans to just 10 points with five sacks and two interceptions. Good thing I didn’t need the extra points!

So, can they pull it off for the second week in a row?

I think they can. One of the hottest teams in football hosts Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins in Week 12. Brocktober may be over, but they may play in the favor of the Colts. A rusty Tannehill wasn’t really playing great before his injury and should need a game or two to get back up to speed. I like Indy to win big, which puts them in a good spot defensively to gather some sacks and turnovers.

New England Patriots, DST10 (58.6%)

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Checking out the history between the Patriots and the Jets, it makes me laugh. The Jets either keep it within one score or lose by thirty. One thing’s for certain – it’s always losing for the Jets. The Patriots have the Jets’ number and are likely going to keep calling it until the dynasty crumbles.

I’m pleased to stream the Pats defense wherever I need to do so. The most exciting part is how frequently the Jets throw interceptions. When Sam Darnold sat due to injury, fantasy owners were pivoting off of streaming a defense against Josh McCown. Then, McCown ended up putting up an absolute stinker in Week 10 against the aforementioned Bills. And, quite frankly, the Patriots defense would likely rather face McCown anyway. They’ve faced him before and have a decade’s worth of film on him. In fact, the last time they faced McCown (2017), the Patriots defense accrued four sacks and three turnovers.

All this to say, the Patriots defense is a safe option with the upside of much more here in Week 12.

Early Top 13 for Week 13

  1. Bears (at NYG)
  2. Texans (at CLE)
  3. Seahawks (vs SF)
  4. Rams (at DET)
  5. Packers (vs ARI)
  6. Panthers (at TB)
  7. Chiefs (at OAK)
  8. Titans (vs NYJ)
  9. Bills (at MIA)
  10. Dolphins (vs BUF)
  11. Broncos (at CIN)
  12. Colts (at JAX)
  13. Jets (at TEN)

The Packers and Chiefs should be popular pickups in great matchups despite their struggles defensively. Indy could be a nice two-for-one play for Weeks 12 and 13. Everyone brace yourselves for Bills-Dolphins, Part II. Finally, the Jets and Titans should be playing an ugly game down in Nashville.



 


Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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