Another crazy week with no time for this fool. However, it’s the most important week of the Stream-O-Matic thus far. For those of you who have had success using this model, it would be a real shame if I didn’t post anything!
Look at that, we actually have options galore:
- Green Bay tops the chart with their fantastic matchup against Arizona at home.
- The Seahawks host a pedestrian 49ers offense up in Seattle. There’s no need to overthink that one.
- The Broncos oppose the Bengals and a spot-start from Jeff Driskell. Even though it’s on the road, I am more than comfortable rolling Denver’s defense out in my lineup.
- Buffalo and Miami will play each other in what should be a low-scoring affair. For what it’s worth, I believe Buffalo beats Miami handily. Both defenses are playable though.
- The Titans host a Jets offense that is mediocre at the very best with Josh McCown under center.
- Indianapolis is attractive as a streaming option against the Jaguars, who will be without Leonard Fournette. We’ve seen how that looks before and it’s not bueno.
Good luck to everyone in what is typically the finale of the fantasy football regular season!
2018 Fantasy Football Week 13 Defense Stream-O-Matic
Scoring
I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.
Categories
The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.
- Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
- Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
- Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
- Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
- oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.
- oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
- FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
- DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.
Stream-O-Matic Chart
| Overall | Defense | Own% | Opp | Location | Wind | Vegas | oSAC% | oINT% | FPPG | DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122.5 | Packers | 49.9 | ARI | 5 | 0 | 32 | 25 | 32 | 15.5 | 13 |
| 122.0 | Bears | 97.6 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 26 | 22 | 10 | 32 | 32 |
| 113.5 | Seahawks | 21.7 | SF | 5 | 0 | 29 | 15 | 29 | 15.5 | 20 |
| 113.0 | Broncos | 50.8 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 22 | 25 | 30 |
| 113.0 | Bills | 48.4 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 21 | 27 | 11 | 23 | 31 |
| 110.0 | Dolphins | 16.7 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 30 | 18 | 28 | 19 | 10 |
| 110.0 | Texans | 91.6 | CLE | 5 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 29 |
| 108.0 | Rams | 94.6 | DET | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 28 | 17 |
| 105.0 | Titans | 44.0 | NYJ | 5 | 0 | 31 | 17 | 31 | 10 | 11 |
| 100.0 | Steelers | 65.6 | LAC | 5 | 0 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 29 | 22 |
| 99.0 | Colts | 28.4 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 98.0 | Ravens | 86.6 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 15 | 20 | 9 | 27 | 27 |
| 97.0 | Eagles | 61.6 | WAS | 5 | 0 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 7 | 7 |
| 96.0 | Browns | 11.4 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 19 | 13 | 24 |
| 94.0 | Saints | 29.8 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 2 | 20 | 23 |
| 93.0 | Redskins | 67.5 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 26 | 14 |
| 91.0 | Chiefs | 58.2 | OAK | 0 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 12 |
| 89.0 | Jets | 17.7 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 13 | 32 | 17 | 11 | 16 |
| 85.0 | Chargers | 84.8 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 24 | 26 |
| 81.0 | Patriots | 63.0 | MIN | 5 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 15 |
| 75.0 | Jaguars | 77.0 | IND | 5 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 75.0 | Vikings | 86.9 | NE | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 28 |
| 70.0 | Cardinals | 29.8 | GB | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 62.0 | Panthers | 58.6 | TB | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 30 | 9 | 8 |
| 58.0 | Falcons | 7.2 | BAL | 5 | 0 | 16 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 1 |
| 55.0 | Cowboys | 41.3 | NO | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 |
| 54.0 | Giants | 3.0 | CHI | 5 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 6 |
| 52.0 | 49ers | 8.1 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 52.0 | Raiders | 2.3 | KC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 3 |
| 47.0 | Bengals | 23.9 | DEN | 5 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 44.0 | Buccaneers | 3.2 | CAR | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 3 | 2 |
| 36.0 | Lions | 8.6 | LAR | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!
Top Defenses for Weeks 14 thru 16
So, everyone loves stashing multiple defenses for the fantasy playoffs and rightfully so! I decided to run the Stream-O-Matic (minus Vegas odds) for every week of matchups up until Week 17. Hopefully, some of these defenses will be available for you!
Most of these defenses at the top are owned but give your waiver wire a second look. The Bills have stellar matchups in Weeks 14 and 15 against the Jets and Lions at home. The Patriots dropped heavily in ownership this week but have a nice matchup against the Buffalo offense in Week 16. This chart will give you some things to think about at least in preparation for your playoff run.
Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.
