Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Alright, who’s ready for some Week 6 defense talk?!

There are lots of strange matchups this week. Tons of just weird, potentially low-scoring games that may be hard to watch along with some high-flying matchups conducive to fantasy scoring. This is shaping up to be a strange week for defensive scoring and I apologize if you have missed out on some of the big names already.

Regardless, let’s dive into the Stream-O-Matic chart this week. There are plenty of eye-openers in the rankings and it’s certainly worth the trouble to talk through some of the notable defenses.


2018 Fantasy Football Week 6 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
133.0Bears90.6MIA002520243232
132.0Jaguars99DAL002728173030
132.0Texans86.2BUF502930301523
126.0Packers55.8SF502826262516
111.0Ravens91.1TEN002612202429
109.0Dolphins16.7CHI501719122828
101.5Rams98.7DEN0016172326.519
101.0Jets32.6IND50235103127
99.0Seahawks21.5OAK001811271924
96.5Vikings86.4ARZ5030152217.57
92.5Bills4HOU009251517.526
89.0Eagles91.3NYG00242491022
88.0Chargers55.6CLE00222716815
87.5Browns39.6LAC50154626.531
87.0Colts3.2NYJ00121828920
85.0Cowboys24.1JAX50219191318
84.0Steelers14.5CIN0067252917
83.0Titans76BAL5019872321
74.0Redskins7.5CAR502010131610
74.0Bengals13.2PIT50116182113
68.0Cardinals28.2MIN0081412025
66.0Panthers67.3WAS0014168226
62.0Raiders1.3SEA5010291134
57.0Falcons4.8TB507132912
55.0Giants1.1PHI501321349
45.049ers7.2GB004222512
43.0Broncos63LAR503314711
42.0Patriots57.1KC505251114
40.0Chiefs5.9NE001121125
32.0Buccaneers1.2ATL00223421
17.0Lions7.4BYE----------143
14.0Saints21BYE----------68

Defenses on Bye Week: Lions, Saints

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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What do you get when you have two run-heavy offenses with mediocre quarterbacks and a lack of a dominant receiver?

Boring.

This snoozefest between the Jaguars and Cowboys will be one we heavily ignore unless we are relying on Ezekiel Elliott in our fantasy leagues. Otherwise, are you really rolling out Dede Westbrook, Michael Gallup, or TJ Yeldon with confidence? Nope. This is going to be a very unwatchable game among many in this Week 6 slate.

Are the defenses worth a look though? Jacksonville’s defense is obviously a must-start, but what about the Cowboys? Stream-O-Matic has them at 16th, but I’m more confident in them as a fringe DST1 this week. The Jaguars have been wildly inconsistent on offense and, without Leonard Fournette, it doesn’t seem to be getting better anytime soon. They’ve turned the ball over eight times in the last two games and the Cowboys should have enough defensively to capitalize here.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

I mean, can I just have an ‘Insert Chiefs game’ section here?

Although the Chiefs defense looked better last week against the aforementioned Fournette-less Jags, they face a different challenge this week. The Patriots will be on ten days’ rest and fully reloaded with Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon on the outside. Sony Michel looks like a force and James White is doing James White things. This Patriots offense is no joke, even next to the No. 1 Chiefs offense.

It’s almost a 60-point over/under – what more can I say? Don’t be a hero and start one of these defenses. That’s just foolish.

Notables

Green Bay Packers, DST4 (55.8%)

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Are the Packers in a must-win mode here in Week 6? To answer my own question: no. However, it sorta has that kind of feeling to it, right? They are behind a hot Bears team in the standings and really should’ve lost that Week 1 game to Chicago. The Bears are the more complete team between the two. Green Bay, for the second year in a row, is playing second fiddle in the NFC North. Losing to the last place Lions last week doesn’t help their cause either.

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What I’m trying to do here is build a narrative. Facing the 49ers on Monday Night Football, the Pack will be playing with a sense of urgency. They want to silence the doubters of their locker room disruption and such and just go get a big win.

They’ve taken advantage of a good matchup defensively in the past (Bills at home), so why not go back to the well? The 49ers are miserable right now, especially after their most recent performance. Against the Cardinals, they turned the ball over five times and allowed four sacks. This injury-riddled offense isn’t fooling anyone with all of those yards last week – it’s still bad news there.

I’m giving the Packers the benefit of the doubt this week. I believe they are an opportunistic defense with a chance to force some turnovers in a great matchup.

Miami Dolphins, DST6 (16.7%)

This is a curious ranking here by the Stream-O-Matic. The chart likes the performance by the Miami defense this season and rewards them for playing a home game against a decent matchup. So, what makes me curious?

Well, the rest of the story makes me curious. The Bears are coming off their bye week, thus mostly eliminating the advantage for the Dolphins in that regard. Many also forget that the Chicago offense has a lot of confidence right now off that incredible performance against the Bucs in Week 4. Sure, it was against the Bucs, but it was still a monstrous outing and they let off the gas pedal in the second half.

So, if we are expecting the game flow to work in favor of the Bears, the Dolphins will be playing run-stopper for most of the game. We don’t like that for fantasy purposes. I’m thinking the ceiling is low for the Miami defense while the floor could be pretty good. I would want to pivot elsewhere, though.

New York Jets, DST8 (32.6%)

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The chart was high on the Jets last week and they straight up dominated the Broncos. The fantasy scoring for the Jets may not have mirrored that, but it was a huge performance nonetheless.

The Jets provide an interesting scenario in Week 6. Their defense has been very good over the first five games – it’s the offense that has let them down in the losses. The Jaguars game was the biggest deficit, but there was a safety and some short fields allowed. Point is, this Jets defense is very stout.

The Stream-O-Matic is very bullish on this fact and ranks them accordingly. Despite the seemingly bad matchup against the Colts, there’s an opportunity here. The Colts throw the ball over 49 times per game on average. The median for NFL teams is 36 attempts per game. Pass attempts for a defensive line as good as the Jets register lead to sacks and pressures. That leads to fantasy scoring.

Buffalo Bills, DST11 (4.0%)

The Bills are another under the radar play for Week 6. It may be more of a DFS stream where you want to differentiate your lineups from the crowd. No matter the case, this Bills defense is no joke and is actually winning them games.

Ever since Week 2, they’ve been grooving. They held the Vikings to 6 points on the road. The Packers offense was limited to just 22 points despite the game flow being heavily against them. And last week the Titans offense looked anemic against the Bills defense after throwing all over the Eagles defense the week before.

Other than the constant hammering on the O-button for spin moves from DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans offense has been uninspiring this season. The offensive line is among the worst in the league, ranking 31st by Pro Football Focus. Lamar Miller is hurt, leading to a one-sided attack from the passing game. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes will have their ears pinned back and ready to dominate this porous line.

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About Tyler Thompson

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  1. Pingback: Thursday, October 11, 2018 - Fantasy Football Links - FantasyRundown.com

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