Fantasy Football

2018 Fantasy Football Week 7 Defense Stream-O-Matic

on

My best prediction last week in this article was that it would be a strange week of football. The defensive performances were all over the place and unpredictable. Sure, the Stream-O-Matic had its hits, but the misses were clear as well.

Harping on Week 6 is a mistake though because Week 7 has some more clear-cut options on the chart. The waiver wire options are fruitful and, overall, I’m expecting a pretty low-scoring week. With teams like the Packers and Steelers on bye, flex options everywhere will see some unfamiliar faces.

Let’s get into the options for Week 7!


2018 Fantasy Football Week 7 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
123Jaguars98.9HOU502726201728
116Colts25.7BUF502828281017
111.5Rams98.8SF0022232624.516
110Chargers70.5TEN502627171421
105Cardinals28.9DEN501914222223
100Texans90.8JAX001412212825
100Vikings89.2NYJ052017242113
96Jets34.3MIN55111543026
94Redskins9DAL552425101510
93Ravens90.1NO5515513131
91.5Dolphins26.4DET501371824.524
91Bears92.5NE5043153232
91Broncos44.8ARZ00252123715
87Browns33.5TB00611271627
87Cowboys22.1WAS05211652020
85Eagles90.9CAR55238111122
78Bills19.5IND0052142730
72Patriots48.5CHI00181912914
70Lions7.1MIA00171325123
67Panthers52.3PHI05102021812
63Buccaneers1.3CLE5016241611
58Seahawks20.7BYE----------2929
56Titans53LAC008471918
53Chiefs5.8CIN50791985
51Falcons5.5NYG501222822
45Steelers17BYE----------2619
4349ers2.2LAR502101358
39Saints16.6BAL0596667
34Packers51.7BYE----------2311
34Giants1ATL00318346
33Bengals7.7KC00119139
7Raiders1.1BYE----------34

Defenses on Bye Week: Packers, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

Embed from Getty Images

Other than the pictured matchup, I am not expecting much fireworks out of this AFC South battle between the Texans and Jaguars. Is this the worst division in football? You bet your sweet arse it is. Death, taxes and the AFC North sucks.

The Jags looked like absolute garbage last week against a mediocre Dallas team. I was traveling and tuned out of football for a few hours during my drive. It’s good for the psyche, you know? Anyway, when I checked out the scores of the noon flight of games, this one stood out to me the most. I thought this was an all-time great defense! You can’t give up 40 to Dak Prescott and his ragtag group of receivers and expect to be an all-timer.

Meanwhile, the Texans have been playing ugly, inconsistent games all season. After an impressive performance in Week 1 against the notoriously slow-starting Patriots, it’s been a hodgepodge of good and bad outputs. This stretch included losses to the Titans and Giants by a combined 8 points followed by wins against the Colts, Cowboys, and Bills by a combined 13 points. Deshaun Watson hasn’t quite found his 2017 mojo yet and the defense has been doing most of the heavy-lifting.

What the hell are we expecting from these teams? Well, I can guarantee it will be ugly to watch. I’m hammering the under on 42.5 points.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

Look, we all know this is the ‘Insert Chiefs game’ section. However, I want to pivot to a different game this week just to give you another high-scoring option that people may not recognize.

I really believe this matchup against the Buccaneers and Browns is going to be a shootout. Tampa Bay has the worst defense in the league – yes, even worse than KC. As the analysts would say, they couldn’t stop a nosebleed. The Browns, while their defense has been good, have been in their fair share of high-scoring affairs. After their dud against the Chargers, I’m expecting them to come back firing here in Week 7.

This is a sneaky shootout that people aren’t paying attention to for some reason. Looking specifically for DFS, I’m firing up my Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, etc. in some of my tournament lineups.

Notables

Indianapolis Colts, DST2 (25.7%)

Embed from Getty Images

(Insert team playing Bills.)

Whoa, the Stream-O-Matic is really testing the waters here. Can you really stream anyone against the Bills?

Ya know, the Colts defense actually hasn’t been THAT bad this year. Okay, maybe we are just used to them being terrible, but still! They are in the top half of the DVOA defense ratings. That falls right in line with their middle-of-the-pack rushing yards per game allowed and takeaway ratio. So, if we call the Colts defense ‘the average defense’ and pretend it’s a different mascot, I think people would be rushing to get them.

However, it’s the Colts and they are only owned in roughly a quarter of leagues. Don’t make that mistake. It’s Derek Anderson off the couch for Pete(rman)’s sake! They have no downfield weapons and a terrible run game. Take advantage of this matchup and forget the stigma of the Colts defense.

Arizona Cardinals, DST5 (28.9%)

This is my stream of the week right here! I think they have been for the past four weeks or so, but I’m staying in the flames. The Cardinals defense has almost been outproducing the offense during that stretch!

If you have seen their opponent on offense over the last couple of weeks, you’d understand. The Broncos offense refuses to run the ball despite having two capable running backs that complement each other really well. Over the past three weeks, they’ve had a ~2.5 to 1 ratio of passes to runs. This with a struggling Case Keenum at the helm, too.

Playing at home with a chance to win, I believe the Cardinals will come out strong this week. In a game with a 41.5-point over/under, I’m banking on the under and the Arizona defense will have a large play in that.

New York Jets, DST8 (34.3%)

Embed from Getty Images

Yes, we get it Stream-O chart, the Jets defense is very good.

However, with the matchup this week against the Vikings, I’m not interested. The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in a game with a 47-point over/under. Minnesota also ranks fourth-best in interception percentage and middle-of-the-pack in sacks allowed. The matchup just doesn’t look good for New York here.

However, looking forward, the Jets could certainly be stream-worthy in the coming weeks. The Bears aren’t the best offense to stream against, but it can be done. After that, you have the Dolphins and Bills. At that point, I’m pushing the chips in!



 


Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

Follow me on Twitter at @therealwody. For all the latest news and best advice out there, like us on Facebook, Google+ and Instagram.

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.