2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2018 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List


Hello there Fantasy friends and foes. Welcome back to more Fantasy Football analysis as I bring the Wide Receivers that you should not draft for this season.

I reviewed the Average Draft Position (ADP) of wide receivers and discovered four receivers that I will not draft at their current draft price. The most essential aspect of fantasy football is finding value with each draft selection. The goal is to find players who score more points relative to their draft position.

Even your worst player can be a good choice if his draft price is right. Let’s take a look at who I think are the worst players to take at their current draft price in the 2018 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List.

2018 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List

Prepare for your draft by using the Free Mock Draft Simulator

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Embed from Getty Images

Please don’t me wrong. Mike Evans will be a fantasy factor this season, but not a top-10 or a sure-fire WR1 as currently drafted.

Mike Evans was a major fantasy disappointment last season. He finished 17th among WRs in PPR points and 22nd in non-PPR after going in the first round of last year’s drafts. His 1.6 yards-after-catch average ranked 117th among 121 qualifying WRs! To make matters worse, he only notched 100 yards receiving once and scored only one touchdown after week 8 last season.

Unfortunately, his outlook this season looks worse. Jameis Winston will miss the first three games. The team invested highly in trying to improve their running game by drafting Ronald Jones II. Most importantly, several other receivers saw an increased number of targets around him.

DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, and the tight end duo Cameron Brate and OJ Howard will all steal targets. There is also buzz about Chris Godwin becoming the WR2 and emerging as a legitimate weapon in the Bucs offense.

Mike Evans did lead the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards last season. However, he will have to do more with less opportunity this season. You mix in one of the worst catch-rates of any receiver over the last four seasons with a decline in volume, it is difficult to see Evans being anything more than a mid-level fantasy WR2.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Embed from Getty Images

Fantasy owners who drafted Hill in 2017 were ecstatic after the Kansas City speedster finished as a WR1. Can he replicate his 2017 efficiency, and how valuable is he in redraft leagues? He was one of the most efficient Fantasy players last season catching 75 of 105 targets with a 15.8 average yards per reception.

Tyreek Hill finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver last year. However, he was the only wide receiver since 2000 to finish as a WR1 in fantasy football despite seeing less than 20-percent of his team’s overall target share. We know Hill for his big-play ability while offering very little in the way of red-zone production. All of his touchdowns came from 30 or more yards away.

Hill is your classic boom-or-bust guy. He does possess plenty of upside but also carries a significant amount of risk. The most obvious risk factor is new quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes replaces Alex Smith, who had an adjusted deep ball completion percentage of 56.5 percent in 2017, the best mark in the NFL. Mahomes is a first-year at quarterback, who has a cannon for an arm but isn’t especially accurate. It’s very unrealistic to expect a first-year starter to produce a better season than Smith during his impressive 2017 season.

The Chiefs added wide receiver Sammy Watkins to the offensive mix with Hill, Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce. Hill saw just 105 targets in 2017, 22nd among wide receivers. Now Hill does not have a clear path to increased or sustained volume. His inconsistency and competition for targets concern me enough that I would only consider Hill as a possible WR2. I would rather take Watkins later in the draft, say 7th or 8th round and get similar production.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Embed from Getty Images

I believe we saw the ceiling of Adam Thielen last season. He had a whopping 143 targets and produced 91 catches for 1,276 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough for WR8 in PPR and WR10 in a standard.

It will be very doubtful that Thielen will see 143 targets again or even close to it. The Vikings now have a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who is notorious for spreading the ball around. especially to his tight ends (hello Kyle Rudolph!). Additionally, the team will welcome in a new offensive coordinator in John DeFilippo who is taking over for Pat Shurmur.

A change to an offense isn’t always good, especially in a top 10 unit. Including the highly anticipated return of the emerging running back Dalvin Cook. Lastly, there is the progression of star receiver Stefon Diggs. His perceived upside has gone through the roof since his last-second playoff touchdown catch-and-run.

Last season, there really wasn’t too much competition against him. This season, there will be an increase and improvements in the running game. His volume will also decrease with the addition of slot receiver Kendall Wright who had only three drops and led slot receivers with an 80.4 catch rate. There is also a lot of buzz about 2016 first-round pick Laquon Treadwell. He has been a disappointment in his first few seasons but seems to be impressing the team in camp so far.

Thielen has yet to have a high touchdown rate at this point in his career. Fantasy owners will need to rely only on his yards and receptions. With the upcoming target regression, his fantasy success presents too much risk as a top-15 WR in 2018!

Jordy Nelson, WR, Oakland Raiders

This past offseason, the Raiders decided to say goodbye to Michael Crabtree and welcome in Jordy Nelson from Green Bay Packers. Most expect Nelson as the Raiders’ No.2 wide receiver in 2018. He had just 53 catches for 482 yards and six touchdowns last season.

However, he only picked up a grand total of 252 yards with zero touchdowns in 10 games after his quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone. He also failed to top 80 yards a game last season. While he did manage six touchdowns last seasons, he accomplishes that all in the first five weeks.

Many will blame the Aaron Rodgers injury for Nelson’s lack of production last season. The Rodgers-Nelson combo had terrific chemistry and they also always seemed to be in sync with one another. His age (33) is also a factor in his decreased play the past two seasons. Even in the six games in 2017 in which Rodgers, and not Brett Hundley, fully played, Nelson averaged only 5.7 targets, 3.8 catches, and 43 yards receiving per game.

To duplicate his success, Nelson will need to develop a rapport with Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Of course, they won’t be able to do that overnight. Nelson will be the No.2 WR and try to match Michael Crabtree’s production of 58 catches, 618 yards, and eight touchdowns from last season.

Sign up for the Fantasy Six Pack Newsletter to receive email updates.

The Raiders will look to Jordy Nelson for making crucial catches, but don’t expect big fantasy stat lines. The risk outweighs the rewards with Nelson and fantasy owners need to look elsewhere if they are looking for a late-round steal. I would rather take a chance with Robby Anderson, Sterling Shepard or Kenny Stills.

Looking for other players not to draft?  Here is who we think you should beware of as you head into your fantasy drafts:

About Dennis Sosic

Dennis Sosic is from Cleveland, Ohio and a HUGE sports fan including NFL (GO BROWNS!) and college football (GO BUCKEYES!) MLB (GO TRIBE), NBA (GO CAVS!) and MMA. He has been called a Sports Geek by friends and foes alike and that fits him perfectly. He has been competing in fantasy sports, mainly fantasy football and baseball for over 20 years. Please do all of us a favor and follow Dennis @ CALL_ME_SOS.

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.