2018 NFL DFS Picks Week 9

by Bobby Shepherd
NFL DFS Week 9 Picks

Fire up the twitter questions about Nick Mullens!

I thought that game would be boring and tough to stay awake through. Turns out it was brutal and hard to watch.

In other NFL news, it's Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay time!

You don't need me to tell you about the trade deadline, but if you happen to be crawling out of a cave - welcome back. You can check out our guy Chris Luft's take here.

As for right now, let's get back to what matters - desperately trying to get instantly rich on DraftKings and FanDuel.

2018 NFL DFS Week 9 Picks

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Cam Newton vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$8600 FanDuel
$6600 DraftKings

Newton is worth every penny this week with a very high floor and rushing TD upside. He has been on fire lately and playing against significantly better defenses than what he'll be facing in Week 9.

In three straight games, he has scored 24 points or higher.

Every single week I say to target Tampa. Trust me when I say that I'm as sick of explaining it, as you are of hearing it. But nonetheless, they have given up an average of 29.8 fantasy points per week to the QB position.

Tampa's D, especially now with six teams on bye weeks, remains the safest option to target heavily.

Jared Goff @ New Orleans Saints

$8400 FD
$6000 DK

Last week Goff had an ugly start but ended the day with a pretty good performance. His upside this week comes from the undeniable truth, you can't win in New Orleans without 35 points.

For the Rams to remain undefeated they'll either have to stop Brees, or far more likely, throw a lot of passes.

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Carolina Panthers

$7100 FD
$5500 DK

I believe it was a mistake to have ever benched Fitz in the first place. But then again, I'm just a dude on a couch - who really cares what I think?!

Either way, the universe has aligned itself and the NFL's best early season story gets another chance.

Carolina is a formidable opponent, but they fall very short of the insane defense of the Bears that dethroned FitzMagic.

I'm not putting him up too high on any of my lists just yet, but at his cost and with several big-name QBs not playing in the main slate, I'm playing him confidently in DFS this week.

Running Backs

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Adrian Peterson vs Atlanta Falcons

$7500 FanDuel
$6000 DraftKings

Peterson's inconsistencies have come from being scripted out of the game. "So why recommend him against the Falcons Bobby!?" Please save your questions until the end.

Last week we saw the Redskins hold Saquon Barkley to 38 yards rushing, his second-lowest totals of the year. I love Tevin Coleman enough write an article on why he needed to be drafted, but Barkley > Coleman

Next thing to consider is that it's going to be outside in the cold which is the kiss of death for Matt Ryan.

Washington's run defense and Matt Ryan's terrible play outside make for a wonderful game script for Peterson.

Almost forgot to mention, Atlanta has given up the most points to RBs by DraftKings scoring this season.

Latavius Murray vs Detroit Lions

$6700 FD
$5100 DK

Murray has scored 20.5 or more PPR points three weeks in a row. Everything we hoped Dalvin Cook would be, Murray has been. (And I'm only a little bitter for having drafted Cook as often as I did).

If you haven't noticed yet, take notice now. Murray has been catching passes and handling most of the carries and has a prime matchup against a soft Lions run defense. His increase in passing down work also keeps him from being scripted out of the game should Matt Stafford have any tricks up his sleeve.

Jordan Howard @ Buffalo Bills

$6200 FD
$4700 DK

I argued hard against Howard every time I recommended Tarik Cohen. But Howard is still a good running back and Mitchell Trubisky's inconsistencies aren't going to improve on a cold day in upstate New York.

I don't think it's too hot of a take to say the Bills offense is in trouble this week. For those who haven't heard, it's Nathan Peterman time in Buffalo again.

If Khalil Mack looks anything like Khalil Mack again, the Bills will likely be swallowed whole by this defense. That's going to leave about 45 minutes of garbage time for JoHo to let loose his ground and pound style early and often. With his reduced price tag he has even more appeal.

Nick Chubb vs Kansas City Chiefs

$6600 FD
$4500 DK

Chubb is one of the most intriguing plays of the week. Remember the Raiders? I could watch those highlights all day.

The Chiefs haven't been good against the run and they've also recently lost a few linebackers due to injury. This is about as good a matchup as Chubb can expect to have in the NFL.

Wide Receivers

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John Brown vs Pittsburgh Steelers

$6400 FanDuel
$5800 DraftKings

John Brown has had a career revival in Baltimore that few people expected. Despite his ups and downs, he is averaging 15.0 PPR points per game. Pittsburgh's capable pass rush is something to be concerned about, however, Brown remains the player on this team with the highest upside.

His target share is only 17% which is tied with Willie Snead and behind Crabtree's 20%. However, Brown has the second highest average depth of target (aDOT) among receivers with 15 or more targets in the entire league. So he is the most likely receiver to blow up any given week.

Pittsburgh has given up the 7th most PPR points to receivers. Vegas has the total points at 47.5 for the game with an implied total of about 25.25 points for the Ravens.

Marvin Jones @ Minnesota Vikings

$6500 FD
$5300 DK

When Golden Tate was traded, everyone was excited for Kenny Golladay and justifiably so as he's likely to see stable volume from here on out. I just didn't want anyone to forget about Marvin Jones when setting their lineup this week.

Jones has led the team in red zone targets and has been targeted 11 more times than Golladay in the past two games. Jones also has an aDOT of 15.5 to Golladay's 12.3.

Both receivers are fine options this week, and I don't necessarily like Jones that much more than Golladay. Until we see how things shake out, I'll take Jones as he appears to have a slight edge over Golladay.

DeVante Parker vs New York Jets

$5800 FD
$4600 DK

This one does feel a little like point chasing. Last week, Brock Osweiler really only looked good while targeting DeVante Parker. But the Jets secondary is injured and anytime there are backup safeties you should start the player with the highest aDOT on the team. With Kenny Stills banged up, that is DeVante Parker.

With a very limited sample size of 13 targets on the season, Parker is averaging 19.3 yards per target. If he is the new downfield threat, then he should have a great opportunity again this week.

D.J. Moore vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$5300 FD
$4300 DK

Moore finally had his breakout game and thanks to FitzMagic there is a 50/50 chance this game will end up a shootout.

Last week Moore lead the team in receiving yards (90), air yards (64), yards after the catch (40) and tied Christian McCaffery for the lead in targets (6).

Tampa is a must target defense and Moore has the best chance to capitalize out of all of the receivers.

Courtland Sutton vs Houston Texans

$5500 FD
$3900 DK

Houston is great at two things, stopping the run and killing QBs. They're right in the middle of the pack as it relates to yards after the catch, and catch rate. If Denver is going to have a chance, it will be through the air.

Emmanuel Sanders is still a much better option than Sutton, this week and beyond, but Sutton is so cheap that he is hard to pass on. I think we can all agree that the discount makes him worthy of consideration this week.

Tight Ends

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Greg Olsen vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

$6200 FanDuel
$4700 DraftKings

Target Tampa Bay, target Tampa Bay, target Tampa Bay. If Olsen is healthy, he's usually a safe bet to produce. Although he will be touchdown dependent to break into the top 5 TEs, all he needs to be top 10 are two feet that aren't broken.

Olsen has played all but three offensive snaps since his return from injury. Last week we saw him supplant Devin Funchess as the go-to big-body target in the red zone.

Vance McDonald @ Baltimore Ravens

$5200 FD
$3700 DK

Picking a Steelers pass catcher when they are on the road is always a gamble. But McDonald demands a lot less attention than Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

So far this season McDonald has the third highest target share on the team and has a mind-blowing 226 yards after the catch on only 23 catches. So considering his big-play ability and target share, against a team that forces a lot of check-down passes, McDonald is a great value play this week.

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