Daily Fantasy Sports

2018 NFL DFS Week 11 Picks

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Welcome back everybody.

We were lucky to have such a good game to start off the week. It helped me and many other upset fans after a shocking end to so many games last week.

The Titans dominated my Patriots.


The Browns upset what we believed to be the playoff-bound Falcons.

We had two teams score over 50 points.

And the Bills didn’t just win, they made a statement.

But as always I’m here to look forward and analyze the main slate of DFS games so let’s get started.

2018 NFL DFS Week 11 Picks

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Quarterbacks

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Carson Wentz @ New Orleans Saints

DraftKings $6300
FanDuel $7700

The three best options of the main slate this week are Wentz, Brees, and Newton. If you’re looking for a relatively safe bet and don’t mind paying the premium price, you really can’t go wrong with any of them.

Wentz is the guy I’m focusing on because he is an excellent mix between floor and upside. As I’ve said, and no doubt as you’ve noticed you can not beat the Saints at home without 35 points at least.

With the widespread injuries to the Eagles secondary, it is very likely that Wentz will need to put up at least 40 to compete this week. Wentz has put up 25 points in 2 consecutive outings while facing more menacing defense than the Saints. And given the question marks at runningback Wentz will likely have to carry the offense.

It pays off, to pay up at a position as high scoring as quarterback. And anytime you need big points, it’s always a safe bet to pick the guy playing in New Orleans.

Deshaun Watson @ Washington Redskins

DK 5700
FD 7800

It feels like just yesterday that Watson put up 5 touchdowns against Miami.

Through his short career Watson has proven to either be very efficient to the point of being almost astonishing to watch. Or he has games that look like he’s still playing for Dabo Sweeney back at Clemson. A huge part of this is the weather.

Watson has had one game this Season inside a dome that he has failed to put up 25 points. This explains his fairly run of the mill day in Denver last week. A quick check of the weather when I was writing this on Wednesday afternoon, says it’ll be in the 50s in Washington come Sunday.

However, if Watson is having himself a day, he has the weapons and skill to beat just about anybody. He is a boom or bust guy for sure, but few can match his upside.

Dak Prescott @ Atlanta Falcons

DK 5200
FD 7400

He had a slow start but the past 4 weeks he has been impressive. His lone game in that time came against Tennessee where he scored 16.8 fantasy points. But i would also like to point out that his stat line included 2 more touchdowns than Tom Brady had against the Titans.

Atlanta isn’t stopping anything this season with Deon Jone and Keanu Neal. So I’m expecting the new and slightly more pass-happy look the Cowboys have given us to continue this week for sure, as this game will likely be high scoring as it always has been with Atlanta this season.

Dak finally has weapons to open up the field a bit and help him perform and the matchup really can’t get much better. Atlanta has had issues with containment, big plays, and yards after the catch. All of which can help a usually pretty average offense look and perform better than usual.

Running Backs

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Ezekiel Elliott @ Atlanta Falcons

DraftKings $8500
FanDuel $8400

Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley are clearly the top options this week. They’re all great picks and you can build a winning team with any one of them. I chose Zeke for basically the same reasons that I recommended Dak, Atlanta puts up huge points and can’t stop much.

186 scrimmage yards, 2 touchdowns and 6 catches on 7 targets was Zeke’s ridiculous stat line from last week. The biggest thing to take away from this was his 25 touches in a close game. Despite not being known for his pass catching abilities Zeke has proven to be matchup and game script proof.

I’m of the belief that anytime you can get a player who is almost guaranteed 20 touches against a bottom 5 ranked run defense he is a must-have. And for this reason, he is my “chalk play must start” of the week.

David Johnson vs Oakland Raiders

DK 7500
FD 7900

Welcome back to both real life and fantasy football relevance David Johnson! Last week DJ reminded us all why our standards were so high for him in the first place.

Normally after a big game, I tend to be a bit hesitant when trusting a questionable offense. But there is very little cause for concern as DJ and the Cardinals take on the Oakland Raiders in what is likely to be another in a long line of low scoring games.



Last week one of the major change that we saw was the way they used Johnson. He was no longer just barreling ahead up the middle on his hand-offs or catching hopeless dump off passes. They began to get him to the outside and further downfield on his targets.

Recently, the Raiders recently made Nick Mullens look like Jimmy Garoppolo when the two teams faced off. It is very likely that Josh Rosen can also manage to tear it up between the 20s and keep drives alive. Add everything together and it would appear like DJ is set to repeat last weeks performance.

Dion Lewis @ Indianapolis Colts

DK 4700
FD 5900

Dion has had no fewer than 19 touches in the last 3 games he has played. It appears that Tennessee has finally learned that he has real talent when given opportunity.

Last weeks fantasy point total left a lot to be desired, however. In fact, the only thing the Pats did well was stopping Dion. But the Colts are best equipped to stop Derrick Henry rushing up the middle, leaving Dion to have more success hitting the outside.

Jalen Richard @ Arizona Cardinals

DK 4300
FD 5300

I’m going to start this by saying, this is a boom or bust pick. He could score anything as low as 4 points or a high of 20 if he manages a touchdown. Arizona is not equipped to stop runningbacks.

Now that being said, think about who the Raiders have for weapons. Now keep in mind that Jordy Nelson is questionable and Martavis Bryant is possibly done for the season. They will be left with Seth Roberts and Brandon LaFell and one of them will be pursued relentlessly by Patrick Peterson.

So when their defense gives up points and Doug Martin gets scripted out of the game, Richard may be the only option.

Wide Receivers

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Larry Fitzgerald vs Oakland Raiders

DraftKings $5600
FanDuel $5900

Larry has been limited by this offense all season until his big game week 8. And if there was ever a game that he’ll have a repeat performance, it’s this game.

I touched on the bad defense a bit earlier when mentioning DJ, so I won’t beat a dead horse. But keep in mind a dead horse can play zone coverage better than the Raiders current secondary.

Fitz is the safest bet in the receiving core and arguably has as high of a ceiling as anybody else. If it’s between Fitz and Christian Kirk I’ll spend the money and pick the legend over the rookie this week.

Sterling Shepard vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DK 5300
FD 6300

Shepard has the skill to be great any given week. He is just limited by the offense as a whole.

Shepard plays most of his snaps in the slot, which as I and pretty much everyone on Earth have pointed out before, is a weakness for the Bucs.

Beckham and Barkley are likely to lead the team in targets, as they often do. But for a nice cheap alternative, keep in mind Shepard is set up to dominate as well in what should be a high scoring game.

Dede Westbrook vs Pittsburgh Steelers

DK 4700
FD 5300

Westbrook also comes with a built-in boom or bust warning. With the Jags, he could have 2 targets or two touchdowns or anything in between.

Lenard Fournette has finally returned and set this team on the path we expected. Now Blake Bortles isn’t the go-to guy anymore. But with T.J. Watt living in the backfield, Bortles will be checking down early and often. So Westbrooks 10 targets from last week could definitely happen again.

Tight Ends

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Zach Ertz @ New Orleans Saints

DraftKings $6600
FanDuel $7600

16 targets! He had 16 targets in a single game. Now factor in a possible 40 point game for the Eagles instead of 20 and Ertz l0oks even better.

I say it all the time, just make room in the budget for a big name guy. Ertz hasn’t let us down yet and he likely won’t this week either.

Ricky Seals-Jones @ Arizona Cardinals

DK 2900
FD 5200

I’ve got a little bit of faith in this Arizona offense, like very little faith. But I have zero faith in Oaklands defense. Jones was tied for second in targets last week behind DJ and Fitz.

Volume + Raiders = points

Keep in mind the floor for any Cardinal is basically zero, but the ceiling in this matchup makes RSJ worthy of consideration if the budget is already blown.

 


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About Bobby Shepherd

Bobby has played fantasy football since he was first tall enough to reach a draft board. He eats sleeps and breathes stats and is always excited to share his findings.

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  1. Pingback: 2018 NFL DFS Week 11 Team Stacks - Fantasy Six Pack

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