Daily Fantasy Sports

2018 NFL DFS Week 12 Picks


Glad to see everyone survived the Holiday and the Gladiator sport that is Black Friday.

We were lucky to have seen a few good games on Thanksgiving this year.

The NFC East has a new leader, the Saints proved that Brees is the only player they really need to win, and I get to laugh at my brother in law for losing 50 bucks taking the Falcons +13.5 points.

All in all, it was a good time. But just as we as a country are already focused on Christmas, let’s move right along to Sunday.

2018 NFL DFS Week 12 Picks

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Cam Newton vs Seattle Seahawks

DraftKings 6200
FanDuel 8600

Cam has bounced back well from the prime time beating that the Steelers gave him. He put up 28.2 fantasy points and did it with just 2 yards rushing.

Seattle, however, is going to give him a lot more resistance than Detroit did. But Cam has proven his ability to put up points reliably as he has put up less than 20 points only twice this season.

I’m sure you don’t need a whole lot of convincing to take Cam Newton but I believe this week he narrowly edges out Andrew Luck as the top option at QB.

Philip Rivers vs Arizona Cardinals

DK 5800
FD 8300

Rivers is a QB that I have often stated is very under-rated. Anytime he is outside of the top 5 most expensive options I consider him.

Arizona isn’t a particularly great matchup solely because of three players, Chandler Jones, Budda Baker, and Patrick Peterson. They make serious issues for a QB and Rivers isn’t matchup proof by any means. But this offense can’t be stopped by only a handful of playmakers.

Given all the weapons at his disposal, I expect Rivers to run right over the Cardinals defense with very little resistance.

Nick Mullens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DK 5400
FD 6000

I struggled to decide between Tampa or Oakland as the team to target at the QB position. Every week I list a few players facing one or both of them because it usually works out well. But for QB specifically, I’m not really leaning toward Mullens as much as leaning toward the great matchup against Tampa.

Tampa is leading the league in offensive yards per game. With Winston or Fitzmagic Tampa is basically an unstoppable offense that likely won’t get held to 3 points again this season. So Mullens will have his work cut out for him but not very much resistance along the way.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK 6300
FD 7500

Nick Chubb has proven himself to be a poor man’s Melvin Gordon. He’s a fascinating talent and it’s shocking he fell to the second round of the draft. And Cincinnati has proven to not be good against RBs as they’ve given up the 6th most fantasy points on Draft Kings.

Cinci has a solid secondary and if the Browns play smart offense (BIG if) they’ll play run-heavy offense and limit their exposure to mistakes. Chubb has also had 18 or more touches in his last 4 games.

Matt Breida @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DK 5700
FD 6400

Breida seemed to be in full health week 10 when he put up 31.2 Draft Kings points. And with Raheem Mostert on IR and Alfred Morris looking average at best Breida will likely be right back to work this week against Tampa.

Everything I have to say about Tampa has already been said. Breida will likely be the lead back against a team that gives up a lot of points to lead backs. This week, and possibly only this week his cost also happens to be very agreeable. Just don’t expect to keep getting him for a deal.

Marlon Mack vs Miami Dolphins

DK 5500
FD 7000

The Marlon Mack hype train was very quick to abandon him after having a few slow games. But in his defense, they were two teams that we didn’t expect him to dominate as much against.

Miami so far this season has given up a ton of points to running backs and hasn’t shown any signs of offense to script mack out yet. So give me the lead back in an Andrew Luck offense against a bad run defense any day. But that’s especially true when he is a cheaper option.

Wide Receivers

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Julian Edelman @ New York Jets

DK 7000
FD 7400

This choice is entirely dependent on Tom Brady‘s health which has recently been brought into question. If Brady doesn’t play I, as a Patriots fan, say everything will be fine. But as a fantasy football writer, have zero faith in the offense.

But assuming good health for the G.O.A.T. Edelman has an excellent matchup. Not only are the Jets very banged up in the secondary Edelman has done well against basically any team the Patriots has faced so far this season.

After the ass whooping the Pats took in Tennessee, they will be out for blood today. It’s not even necessarily to maintain control of the division, it is to reassert themselves as an AFC superpower and remind the league they deserve the hype they get. So I expect this game to be pedal to the metal offense start to finish. And the PPR machine should get more than enough targets and catches to make for a WR1.

D.J. Moore / Curtis Samuel vs Seattle Seahawks

DK 4600/ 3800
FD 5800/ 5300

I could throw out snap counts, touches and targets, and red zone usage stats all day. The fact is, it’s essentially a random shot in the dark who will lead the team in fantasy points for receivers.

The difference between the two could be as simple as one blown assignment or a missed tackle leading to a 60-yard touchdown. But with Seattle’s run defense being the superior aspect of the team I expect passing to be the key to Carolina’s success.

Moore is the big name and superior talent so he costs more as the “safer” pick between the two. But Samuel is often facing less attention and has the added benefit of being overshadowed heading into this game.

Either one of these options is a high ceiling low floor type of player and the choice between the two could quite possibly just come down to budget restraints.

Kendrick Bourne @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DK 3900
FD 4900

Bourne (no relation) is my dart throw pick of the week. All the factors are trending toward him doing well this week. His matchup is a good one, Pierre Garcon might miss the game again, and he gets the added benefit of slot work against Tampa.

Tampa has been bad but especially in the middle of the field. Slot receivers have continued to give them huge problems day in and day out. And there is no reason to assume that this week will be any different.

Tight Ends

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Vance McDonald @ Denver Broncos

DK 4300
FD 5500

The obvious big name TEs, George Kittle and Zach Ertz clearly don’t need explanation. 9 out of 10 times they are the safest bets and are basically matchup proof. McDonald, however, is someone who is also set up to have success this week for much less expense.

Ben has been playing well on the road the last few games and I don’t expect it to pose much of an issue in the passing game. Chubb and Miller, however, will likely cause plenty of problems on their own. So while AB faces off against Chris Harris, Juju and McDonald will likely be seeing some regular check down passing work.

Like all TEs McDonald is just a touchdown or stiff arm away from being top 5 at the position.

Cameron Brate vs San Francisco 49ers

DK 3600
FD 4400

Brate hasn’t just had a slow season, he has had a bad season. He now has Winston in the lineup and OJ Howard out of it. Last season under similar circumstances, Brate was regularly top 5 or 6 at the position but rarely ever cracked top 3. So if you are looking for a high floor with a decent ceiling it’s hard to find any cheaper than Brate.

Click here to read Keith’s NFL DFS Week 12 Team Stacks

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About Bobby Shepherd

Bobby has played fantasy football since he was first tall enough to reach a draft board. He eats sleeps and breathes stats and is always excited to share his findings.

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