2018 NFL DFS Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Picks

by Bobby Shepherd
2020 Fantasy Football Rankings

I'm glad we all survived the heart attack inducing excitement of the Monday night game.

I will have another article up later in the week for the usual Sunday main slate of games. But if you need help publicly shaming your family in a DFS showdown this Thursday, you have the right place.

I usually just recommend players at a bunch of different price points for all positions and let you figure out what you want to do. But my one bit of strategy that I would like to recommend is not skipping out on a big name running back.

It's a great feeling when you pick Matt Breida and Phillip Lindsay on a hot week, but with only six teams to consider and Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson questionable, this is the week to pay the premium price for RBs.

Also, you can't have enough Saints.

Beyond that, you already know the drill, so let's get to it.

2018 NFL DFS Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Picks

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Matt Ryan @ New Orleans Saints

DK 6100
FD 8600

Drew Brees is clearly the highest ceiling of all the QBs in this slate. But I believe Matty Ice has the highest floor and a lower, but comparable ceiling.

Brees will likely end up with 3 or 4 touchdowns depending on how Alvin Kamara gets his score. But we have seen it before, Kamara and Ingram can take over games and basically script Brees out.

On the other hand, the Saints surprisingly vicious defense can likely bottle up Coleman and Smith forcing Ryan to put the team on his shoulders to chase a win. Basically the point is, Brees and Ryan are both good choices, Matt Ryan's team just might need him more.

Dak Prescott vs Washington Redskins

DK 5100
FD 7400

Prescott and Trubisky were the next two choices I was trying to decide between. Dak has the slight edge in my mind. Trubisky has a supposedly minor injury to his throwing elbow so, despite the better matchup, Dak is who I'm rolling with.

Last time these two teams faced each other, Zeke was held to 42 scrimmage yards. Dak and Zeke both had 33 rushing yards on the day. Dak's goal line rushing/ touchdown piracy is also extremely underrated and will likely be on display against the redskins again.

In addition to that, last time these two teams faced off the Cowboys had yet to acquire Amari Cooper who has given Dak a reliable number one target. As opposed to Cole Beasley being the reliable and only one to target.

Running Backs

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Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram vs Atlanta Falcons

DK 8300/ 6100
FD 8900/ 7400

If there was ever a time to stack teams it is this game. The Saints have been on a ruthless ass-kicking streak and have shown no desire to slow down. Even last week when already leading in a massive blowout, on 4th down they threw a bomb down the sideline for a Kamara TD.

Kamara is one of the most efficient running backs in the league. He's a goal line back, pass catcher, and even occasionally a slot receiver when called upon. So with or without Dion Jones returning Kamara should be able to tear up one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.

And as for Ingram my one and only concern for him going into this year was his touchdown dependency. This basically doesn't matter on the Saints as they put up enough points every week to go around. He may have a tougher time than Kamara if Jones is playing for the Falcons, but Ingram is in a prime position to continue his hot streak this week.

Tarik Cohen @ Detroit Lions

DK 5300
FD 6000

Cohen has had a bit of a slower streak the past few weeks in the past three games he has scored 2.3, 16.4 and 7.0 PPR points. The bright spot in this is that the 16.4 points came against the Lions.

All year long, since the very first preseason game, the Lions have had difficulty setting the edge in the run game. It plays to Cohen's strengths to have running lanes and Matt Nagy is very likely to have the game plans to exploit that.

Kapri Bibbs @ Dallas Cowboys

DK 3300
FD 4600

Bibbs is my deep dive special of the week. With Chris Thompson out and Adrian Peterson questionable, there may not be a whole lot of options for the Skins this week.

Bibbs has flashed potential in the past with his best game going for 56 scrimmage yards, 4 catches and a TD in week 7 against the Cowboys. The floor here is basically 0, but if Peterson is out Bibbs could offer some much-needed check down relief to Colt McCoy.

He is a low-cost dart throw that helps balance budgets if you want to jam an extra Saint into your lineup. Just keep in mind, he could put up a 2 point game too.

Wide Receivers

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Michael Thomas vs Atlanta Falcons

DK 8900
FD 8800

What can I even say? Monster is an understatement. Flawless is barely an exaggeration. He is worth every penny especially in you don't spring for Zeke and Kamara.

Kenny Golladay vs Chicago Bears

DK 6400
FD 7200

Last week Golladay was the main target of Matthew Stafford by default as Marvin Jones missed the game. Kenny G had a massive 14 targets and over half of his teams receiving yards.

Golladay is far from matchup proof but has fared well in recent weeks despite Carolina and Chicago's vicious pass rush. The only question here is, can Prince Amukamara slow down Golladay?

I'm willing to bet that his volume will offset any issues with possible inefficiency.

Anthony Miller @ Detroit Lions

DK 4400
FD 5600

A great mid-priced option to help balance talent and budget. Miller killed it last time they played the Lions and Matt Nagy isn't the type to have his offense get stale.

Trubisky spreads the ball around a lot, and when targeting Miller there have only been three games with more than one incompletion. The Lions also have given up the 5th highest completion rate in the league at 69%.

Matt Nagy is an offensive genius and his players have one of the better matchups of the week. Miller and Robinson are both good picks, Miller just seems to have a better value based on his price tag.

Tight Ends

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Austin Hooper @ New Orleans Saints

DK 4200
FD 5800

It will be all hands on deck to take on the Saints. There are basically no people on this Falcons team that I don't like this week.

Now there is reason for concern after the whooping Zack Ertz took from this defense last week. It was pretty brutal to watch. But that happened as a combination of Ertz warranting the most defensive attention and losing targets to Golden Tate.

Let's face it, Julio Jones will take all of the double coverages. Leaving Hooper one on one somewhere on the field.

Trey Burton @ Detroit Lions

DK 4000
FD 6400

This is a case of very few options worthy of consideration. I already spoke about the matchup against the Lions. and with the limited number of tight ends, whoever gets a handful of catches and a touchdown will likely lead at the position.

With Geoff Swaim out and Dallas playing a game of Tight end roulette, there are really only four TEs worth consideration. I have no faith in Washington's and don't trust the volume going to Ben Watson. Leaving Hooper, Burton, and a handful of dart throws.

Decadent Thanksgiving Desserts

NFL DFS Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Team Stacks

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