2018 NFL DFS Week 13 Picks

by Bobby Shepherd
2018 NFL DFS Week 13 Picks

Welcome to the final stretch of the Fantasy regular season. I don't know about anybody else, but my waiver claims for the Cowboy's defense (28% Yahoo) have already been submitted.

But you're not here to worry about the season-long struggles.

You're here to win a million dollars on DraftKings and FanDuel so you can finally live the American dream and never have to work again.

So let's just jump right in.

2018 NFL DFS Week 13 Picks


Kirk Cousins @ New England Patriots

DraftKings 5500
FanDuel 7600

I love my Patriots, but there is simply no answer for Adam Thielen on this team. The Patriots usually give up a lot of short and intermediate routes over the middle, which will lead to a lot of yards for his biggest playmaker Thielen.

Cousins struggled a bit against Detroit in week 9 but other than that has played well lately. With only a handful of playmakers on defense to worry about, Cousins will likely have no issue putting up QB1 numbers with top five upside.

This is all however very dependent on the weather in New England. Cousins doesn't necessarily get the "dome QB warning". But he still might struggle if it continues to be bleak cold and rainy in New England so it's worth a check Sunday morning.

Case Keenum @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK 5200
FD 6900

Keenum has struggled to regain his magic touch this season. He has only had three games so far this season over 20 fantasy points. But if there was ever a week to trust Keenum, it is this week.

Cincinnati is a team giving up big numbers to all skill positions. And this is a game where Emmanuel Sanders' magic will likely bloat Keenum's stats as well. Cincinnati has given up the 6th most yards after the catch (139.5 per game). They are tied for the 9th highest catch rate allowed (67%). They have also allowed 25 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marcus Mariota vs New York Jets

DK 5200
FD 7000

Mariota has been on fire lately. With the exception of his 4.1 stinker in Indy, he has had at least 22 points in 3 of his last 4 games.

The Jets have injuries to their secondary which have left them vulnerable in the passing game. Mariota has had little problem picking apart defenses as of late and this should be no exception.

I also want to point out that on DraftKings, Mariota is 100 dollars less than Josh Allen. So his solid matchup also comes with great value.

Running Backs

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Aaron Jones vs Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings 6700
FanDuel 7600

The last good matchup Jones had was week 10 against the Dolphins. In that game, he had 35 points on 18 touches. The situation he'll find himself in this week could not be set up any better for him to have success.

Arizona has given up the third highest average rushing yards per game (144.8). Aaron Jones also leads the league in yards per rush (6). Couple all of that with what will likely be a very positive game script and it's likely to be a huge day for Jones.

Phillip Lindsay @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK 5400
FD 7000

I doubted Lindsay's chances of getting it done the past two weeks. And I was very wrong both times.

Only once this season has Phillip Lindsey been held to single-digit PPR points, and it came in a game he was ejected from. Three of his last 4 games he has scored over 20 points.

Cincinnati will be playing with Jeff Driskel who played admirably last week. The game should be a run-heavy script with the Broncos leading. But if AJ Green is back it likely won't be enough of a runaway game that Lindsay will be sat.

LeSean McCoy @ Miami Dolphins

DK 4900
FD 5700

Shady is undeniably the best weapon this team has outside of Josh Allen. And the Miami defense is giving up the fourth most rushing yards per matchup (139.2).

Allen has shown great potential but is struggling with inconsistencies caused in no small part by a lack of weapons. For Buffalo to pick up the key divisional win, they will need to run the ball.

Shady may not be what he used to be, but he is still a great pick whenever the matchup is right.

Lamar Miller vs Cleveland Browns

DK 4600
FD 6300

Cleveland's defense is built to stop the pass and often times, the ground game is how they get beaten. Don't get me wrong Hopkins is an unstoppable monster, but Miller can easily exploit the weaknesses of this defense.

Cleveland is allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game (131.8). And the vicious Texans defense could be enough to stop Baker's very impressive hot streak and create a positive game script.

Miller has been up and down all season and comes with one of the lower floors among starting RBs. But this week his upside and value are clear.

Wide Receivers

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Emmanuel Sanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

DraftKings 6300
FanDuel 7000
Sanders and Lindsay have begun to resemble a poor man's Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell in that they are both often responsible for most of the offensive production.

So far this season in games where Sanders scores a TD he has scored at least 21.6 while crossing the 30 point mark twice. So while you run the risk of Sanders being scripted out of this game early, he has a very high ceiling in a great matchup.

In addition to being bad against the run, Cinci has also given up the second most passing yards per game this season (292.2).

Corey Davis vs New York Jets

DK 5500
FD 5900

I already described the matchup a bit when I talked about Mariota. Davis has averaged 7 targets per game over his last 5 games good for roughly 27% of the target share.

Interestingly enough, so far this season the Titans have only lost one game this season when Davis has 5 or more catches. They have also only won one game when he has less than 5 catches.

Adam Humphries vs Carolina Panthers

DK 4200
FD 6000

While his usage was increasing with Fitzmagic under center, nobody has benefited more from the return of Jameis Winston than Humphries. His targets, touchdowns, and yardage have become more reliable week to week.

Red zone targets are tough to come by on this team, particularly with the Winston to Brate combination. But his big play ability keeps him hovering around the discussion for WR3 with big upside.

His last game against Carolina he scored 28.9 DK points by exploiting their lack of depth at DB. Despite missing OJ Howard and a different QB under center Humphries is set up for a repeat performance.

Jermaine Kearse @ Tennessee Titans

DK 4000
FD 5000

We all seem to be getting on board the Kearse hype train this week. Kearse has averaged 9 targets a game over the last 4 games and is facing a Tennessee defense that has been pretty favorable for receivers. He also has the benefit of top coverage following Robby Anderson.

This game could turn into a surprisingly high scoring game If the Jets can keep pace. And while the Jets aren't a team I particularly like to target, Kearse has the upside of a huge game this week and his value is undeniable.

Just keep in mind, his upside is accompanied with a very low floor. If he put up 0 points, it wouldn't be the first time.

Tight Ends

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Jared Cook vs Kansas City Chiefs

DrafKings 4700
FanDuel 6200

Cook is having the best year of his career without a doubt. However, he is still limited by the inefficiency of the Raiders offense. So far this season he has had double-digit targets just twice, and both times he has had 30 fantasy points.

Anytime the Chiefs are in town, there will be points scored. And Cook is looking more and more like their best receiving option. This week is the week to bet on Cook getting the volume he so clearly deserves.

Jonnu Smith vs New York Jets

DK 3300
FD 5300

Smith has had double-digit points for four weeks in a row and has finally integrated into this offense.

His targets tend to be erratic and like every other TE not named Kelce Kittle or Ertz is extremely TD dependent. But the offense and Mariota's recent success has coincided with Smith's recent success and I expect it to keep going.

Smith has a fairly good floor with a high ceiling if he can find the end zone.

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