Daily Fantasy Sports

2018 NFL DFS Week 15 Picks

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After another low scoring week, (Amari Cooper / George Kittle aside) we’re ready for the second to last reliable week of fantasy football.

With two Saturday games this week, the depth of talent in the main slate takes a hit.

So it’s as good a time as any to dial up some deep sleepers and hope for a bit of luck to carry you to a payday!


2018 NFL DFS Week 15 Picks


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Quarterbacks

The top choices (in no particular order):

Josh Allen vs Detroit Lions

DraftKings 5800
FanDuel 7600

Until Josh Allen runs for fewer than 100 yards I’m going to keep playing him. With the exception of the hard to predict rushing TDs his upside is pretty limited as of now. But his floor and his cost are hard for me to pass up on.

With Darius Slay shutting down his top option his weapons are even less likely to help him this Sunday. But if he can avoid Damon Harris and get to the outside those rushing numbers should be as good as they get.

Derek Carr @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK 5400
FD 6800

Cincinnati is very bad at stopping anything or anyone. Carr has been a surprising model of efficiency lately having not thrown a pick since week 5. Seeing as how both of these bottom 5 offenses are facing bottom 5 defenses, this game could have surprising fantasy relevance.

Carr has a low floor this week, but his ceiling makes him an interesting choice to consider in tournaments.

Running Backs

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The top choices:

Tarik Cohen vs Green Bay Packers

DraftKings 6300
FanDuel 6800

The Bears have a tough matchup against the Packers. I know recently the Pack have underachieved and almost been a laughing stock but this is still a team with Aaron Rodgers on it. The Bears will still need points to win.

Anytime the Bears need a big play made, their go-to guy is Tarik Cohen. And in games where the Bears have lost Cohen has scored 7.1, 24.1, 22.3 and 37.6 DK points. So if you want to pick a contrarian player for his high upside, look no further than Cohen.

Joe Mixon vs Oakland Raiders

DK 6100
FD 7400

Mixon had easily the most touches of the season last week with a whopping 31. That is elite volume going against a defense that is not elite. As I said before I believe this game could be surprisingly fruitful for fantasy players and Mixon has essentially become the go-to guy for the Bengals.

Driskel hasn’t been bad so far, but his efficiency has left the Bengals needing more. And with the recent success of Raiders safety Karl Joseph, the passing game could be a non-option if they’re looking to move the ball.

Kenneth Dixon vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DK 3500
FD 5700

As a guy who drafted Dixon in a season-long format, I have been waiting for this all season long! The coaching staff says they expect Dixon’s role to grow and it should.

He is a pass catching and tough to tackle back that combines the best parts of Gus Edwards and Ty Montgomery. His effectiveness is evident by the fact that he has 2 rushing TDs in just 3 games played this season.

As he is part of a three-person timeshare, his volume isn’t reliable. But if he surprises us with a decent workload, he will likely put up big points. It is a gamble I’m willing to take in a few tournaments this week.

Wide Receiver

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The top choices:

Josh Gordon @ Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings 6400
FanDuel 6800

With the exception of the Green Bay game, Gordon has been underwhelming so far this season. He has taken a secondary role in the Patriots offense that doesn’t seem to suit his ability. But when he gets the ball he has produced with regularity.

When the Steelers don’t use linebackers to cover the slot they have had relatively good success. Which leaves the most likely target leaders to be Gronk and Gordon. Gronk being Gronk should be double-teamed, but who knows what will actually happen.

With the Steelers superior run defense, there is a good chance this game will come down to Brady’s arm. And while some random receiver will likely catch a TD pass, Gordon is likely to be the top receiving option.

Dede Westbrook vs Washington Redskins

DK 4500
FD 5400

Westbrook has a slight lead for targets (15 to Moncrief’s 14) since the team started Kessler. But both have had roughly the same number of yards per catch at right about 11.

The thing that gives Westbrook the edge in this great matchup for me is the fact that Josh Norman will likely be on either Moncrief or Cole for most of the night and leave Westbrook open over the middle.

This is likely going to be the Leonard Fournette show, but Westbrook could be the main beneficiary of some 3rd and goal targets. His floor is about as low as it gets, but his ceiling is a solid WR2 performance.

Jordy Nelson @ Cincinnati Bengals

DK 4200
FD 5000

I’m not going to beat a dead horse and keep saying how bad these defenses are. The fact is that Nelson is the most talented receiver on what has lately been a surprisingly efficient team.

When California teams go into cold weather stadiums the only relatively successful receivers are the check-down guys. So I expect Nelson to have more than his fair share of chances to produce in this game.

Tight Ends

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The top choices:

Rob Gronkowski @ Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings 5800
FanDuel 6900

Gronk had a slow start followed by a classically Gronk mid-season injury. But since his return, he has had 2 TDs across a span of three games. And last week against Miami he finally had the typical Gronk stat line we have all been waiting for.

And while beating the Steelers is usually important, a strong follow-up game to the Miami Miracle is a necessity for the Patriots to maintain their playoff bye-week. Not to mention the fact that since 2001 the Patriots have been 38-11 following a loss.

Gronk has averaged 6.3 targets per game over the past three games. And as I stated before I expect the Patriots to have plenty of volume to go around and the smart money is always on a healthy Gronk to make plays.

Vernon Davis @ Jacksonville Jaguars

DK 3200
FD 5300

The ageless wonder will once again be the go-to guy in the passing game this week. And while we all fully expect this to be about as low scoring as a game can get, stranger things have happened in the NFL.

Bouye and Ramsey will lock down the outside. This leaves the likely open targets to be Davis, Crowder (if healthy), and Thompson. Davis has been explosive at times and the Jags aren’t without their weaknesses in the secondary. He would need a lot to go right to put up big numbers, but Davis is a low-cost dart throw I’ve put in a few lineups this week.


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About Bobby Shepherd

Bobby has played fantasy football since he was first tall enough to reach a draft board. He eats sleeps and breathes stats and is always excited to share his findings.

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