Fantasy Football

2018 NFL Week 14 Betting Pick-Six: K.I.S.S. Theory


It’s astonishing to me that we are already one game into Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season! Time flies when you’re placing bets and (hopefully) winning money, I guess. At this point in the season, we need to get back to the roots of betting theory by relying on the K.I.S.S. Theory. It is time to just throw caution to the wind, and Keep It Simple Stupid!

By that, I merely mean the clear-cut, simplest choices for bets are the ones to go after at this point in the season. Technically, you should probably be doing this all season long. But, I feel that some weeks do not have as many of those clear-cut winning picks, and you have to rely on high-risk/high-reward plays. Plus, the sheer definition of the word, “gamble,” is to take risky action in hopes of a desired result. That result…to win!

Let’s get to the Betting Pick-Six risks, er, picks for Week 14!

2018 NFL Week 14 Betting Pick-Six

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Against the Spread (A.T.S.) Picks

Browns vs. Panthers – Line: CAR -1.0

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Last week, I had the Carolina Panthers listed as one of my the A.T.S. betting picks, and I was wrong. This week, I’m throwing them back in the A.T.S. picks again, and I’m picking against them. Sure, it’s easy to do that with only a one point spread, but you have to look deeper to see why this is such a simple pick to make.

Carolina is 1-5 against the spread in their 2018 road games, and they have lost their last four match-ups, straight-up. The Panthers are also a shell of the team that started the 2018 NFL Season 6-2, having lost four straight.

The Panthers will be without their Pro Bowl tight end, Greg Olsen, who they lost, again, to a foot injury. They have also ruled out kicker Graham Gano and signed Chandler Catanzaro to take his place. Lastly, they face a Cleveland team that could actually finish the season above .500 if they win out. The Browns are hungry, and the Panthers are struggling.

Pick: The Browns

Dolphins vs. Patriots – Line: NE -7.5

If Tom Brady is Superman, facing the Dolphins in Miami is his kryptonite! The GOAT has a career road record of 7-9 against the Dolphins in Miami, going 1-4 over his last five road games against the fins. For reference, Brady has no more than four career road losses against the other two current members of the AFC East.

Miami, on the other hand, is 5-1 against the spread at home this season. They are still in the hunt for the playoffs, as well, and a signature win against a foe they have owned at home would go a long way towards their playoff aspirations. Even if they do not get the win, the betting numbers are in their favor.

Pick: The Dolphins

Over/Under (O/U) Picks

Bills vs. Jets – O/U: 38

Speaking of those other two AFC East teams, they just so happen to be facing each other in Week 14. The Jets were decimated by the Bills at home in Week 10, losing 41-10. New York will be out for revenge this week and needs to come out of the gates hot if they want to end their 6-game losing streak.

Meanwhile, the Bills have found some new life behind rookie quarterback Josh Allen and second-year wideout Zay Jones. The pair has hooked up for three touchdowns over the past three weeks, and Allen has shown he is a threat in the ground game, too.

Pick: The Over

Buccaneers vs. Saints – O/U: 54.5

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We’ve seen what these two offenses are capable of doing all season long, but it’s the defenses that have me excited for this Week 1 rematch. Defense was a complete afterthought when the Bucs and Saints opened the 2018 NFL season. However, both teams have stepped up their defensive efforts the past few weeks.

Tampa’s defense has only allowed more than 17 points once in the last four games. Meanwhile, the Saints have held their opponents under 21 points in eight of their twelve games this season, including the last four straight.

The offenses are still high-powered, and there will be plenty of points put up in this game. But, I think the play of the defenses will overshadow the offensive firepower in this week’s rematch.

Pick: The Under

Stacks (A.T.S. & O/U) Picks

Packers vs. Falcons – Line: GB -4.5, O/U: 51

Coming into the 2018 NFL season, this match-up was likely slated to be a very important game for each team’s playoff seeding. Fast-forward to Week 14, and that premise could not be farther from the truth. While each team is still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt, it’s highly likely that neither team will get into the dance.

Green Bay’s season all but ended after last week’s home loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals. That loss, which was their third-straight close loss, coupled with yet another disappointing season overall for the Pack, cost head coach, Mike McCarthy, his job. Atlanta, on the other hand, is on their own four-game losing streak, after winning three-straight from Week 6 to Week 8.

From a betting standpoint, the big downside for the Falcons is the fact that Green Bay is 15-1 in 16 December games when Aaron Rodgers is under center. The Packers are 9-1 straight-up for their last ten home games when they are favored by 3.5-to-7 points. Things just simply are not lining up for Dirty Birds in Week 14.

Pick: Green Bay and the Under

Cowboys vs. Eagles – Line: DAL -3.5, O/U: 44.5

Ah, yes, saving the week’s best game for last! Well, it is the “best” game from my fandom standpoint, at least. The Eagles absolutely need to avenge their Week 9 home loss to the ‘boys. Philadelphia followed up their loss to Dallas by getting completely lambasted by the Saints, 48-7, before winning their last two games against division rivals, the Giants and the Redskins.

Meanwhile, that Week 9 win by Dallas seemingly ignited their season and has them sitting atop the NFC East right now. The Cowboys are in the midst of a 4-game win-streak with signature wins against two division rivals (Philadelphia and Washington), as well as against the Saints, who were on their own 10-game win-streak coming into that game.

Philly still has a chance to take the division outright, but they have a tough remaining road to the playoffs, literally.  The Eagles only have one more home game on their schedule (vs. HOU in Week 16), compared to three, tough road contests against the Cowboys (Week 14), the Rams (Week 15), and the Redskins (Week 17).

The time for the defending Super Bowl Champions is now! Let’s go, Birds!

Pick: Eagles and the Over

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Stay tuned each week for my Weekly Betting Pick-Six articles right here on Fantasy Six Pack, and be sure to send me comments/questions on Twitter to @AppleGarthAlgar. Good luck this week!

Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About A.J. Applegarth

A.J. has been in the fantasy sports game for so long, that the first fantasy team he ever managed used football box scores from newspapers to calculate points. Since those days, A.J. has taken home numerous fantasy football and baseball championship titles. He has also taken his talents to a few fantasy basketball leagues and countless DFS games in more recent years. A.J. would openly admit that “luck” has been a factor in his two-plus decade-long success in fantasy sports, but he will also be the first one to tell you, “You can’t teach luck!” Catch A.J.’s witty banter and "Beer of the Week" picks on The Fantasy Six Pack Hour Podcast, and follow him on the Twitter-space @AppleGarthAlgar.

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