Fantasy Football

2018 NFL Week 5 Betting Pick-Six: Time for a Reset…


Welcome to the 2018 NFL Week 5 Betting Pick-Six article!

Well, it’s been a tough go here at the Betting Pick-Six over the past week. After getting 12-out-of-20 picks correct (60%) in Week 2 and Week 3, I went a horrendous 2-of-10 in Week 4 and on Thursday night.

I apologize to the betting community for my poor picks. But, I have to pass some of the blame to NFL defenses too!

The offensive side of the ball has seemingly taken over recently. Football, like anything else, has ebbs and flows. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen the O/U lines get shattered by high-scoring affairs all over the league.

This weekend, I’m aiming to get back to my winning ways. So, let’s forget the past, and look to the future.

Let’s get to the picks!

2018 NFL Week 5 Betting Pick-Six

Against the Spread

Saints (-6) vs. Redskins

We start this week by analyzing the last game of the weekend, the Monday Night Football game featuring the Saints and Redskins. We already know about the record-breaking history significance of this game. Yes, Drew Brees will most-likely break the all-time passing yards record held by Peyton Manning on Monday night. But, keep in mind that Washington has been very good against opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 187 yards/game (Brees needs 201 yards to break the record).

That being said, Brees has had plenty of help on the offensive side of the ball this year. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas have destroyed the NFL so far this season, and I do not see much of a drop-off in their play this week against a well-rested Redskins defense.

This game also “marks” the return of Mark Ingram, so while Kamara’s touches will undoubtedly take a hit, I still see both backs being productive.

The Redskins, on the other hand, rank 23rd in the NFL in points/game (21.3), and have relied heavily on Adrian Peterson‘s rejuvenated rushing attack. An ankle injury suffered in Washington’s 31-17 win over the Packers in Week 3 has kept Peterson on the shelf. But, AD says he will suit up for Monday’s game after resting during their bye week. Alex Smith and his wide receivers need to get things going for the ‘skins to have a chance in this one, but I see this game being all New Orleans.

Pick: Saints

Lions (-1) vs. Packers

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This divisional match-up always brings fireworks, but this weekend’s game appears to be more of a burn-out than a blast-tube full of mortars.

Aaron Rodgers will be without one of his biggest weapons, as Randall Cobb (hamstring) has already been ruled out for this weekend’s game. Davante Adams (calf) and Geronimo Allison (concussion/hamstring) are currently listed as questionable for the Packers, as well.

This could be a big day for Jimmy Graham.

Detroit is coming off a close loss to Dallas, but the offense has been showing signs of life lately. Golden Tate (8 receptions, 132 yards, 2 touchdowns) had a huge game against the Cowboys, and Kerryon Johnson also found the end zone. Detroit should be able to keep the running game going strong against Green Bay’s middle-of-the-pack rush defense.

Pick: Lions

Bengals (-6) vs. Dolphins

The Bengals and Dolphins enter this game atop their respective divisions, both sitting at 3-1 on the season. Cincinnati has gotten to this point with stellar offensive play behind Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have had their wins come more due to their defense than their offense.

Cameron Wake has been ruled out this weekend, so the Dolphins defense will be at even more of a disadvantage in this game.

The Bengals should be able to keep the offensive onslaught going this weekend. They will be without Gio Bernard who is listed as out for the next 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL. However, Cincinnati will welcome Joe Mixon back this weekend, so I’m not anticipating any drop-off in the rushing game.

Pick: Bengals


Seahawks vs. Rams (O/U 50)

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Here we have another important divisional match-up, with two teams who will most likely be vying for the division title at the end of the 2018 NFL season. Well, at least that’s what we all thought heading into the season.

The Rams have lived up to the hype so far this season, going 4-0 behind Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have fought hard all season just to be sitting at 2-2. I believe that is partially due to Russell Wilson being without his go-to-guy, Doug Baldwin, for the majority of the season.

Seattle’s fortunes could change this week, though, as the Rams defense just gave up 31 points to the Vikings. Seattle is still a tough place to play for opposing teams, and I fully expect the 12th-Man crowd to be out in full force, cheering on their ‘hawks. And, while these two teams have not topped the 50-point threshold since Week 1 of the 2015 NFL Season, I think that changes this week.

Wilson and Seattle are not going down easy, and L.A. is going to put up another offensive show, as well.

Pick: The Over


Bills vs. Titans (-6) & O/U 39

Oh, the Buffalo Bills, what have you become? Well, just the second-worst team in terms of Points/Game (12.5), and a team in absolute offensive disarray coming off a shutout loss to Green Bay. Let’s not forget that the Ravens nearly shutout Buffalo in Week 1, but the Bills managed to squander a field goal to get the final score to 47-3.

There is nothing to like about this team right now.

The Titans are sitting pretty high after their OT win against the Eagles last week. Their defense has been very stout this season, with 12 sacks on the year. Buffalo has allowed 21 sacks through four games already, and I think Tennessee is going to have a field day on rookie quarterback, Josh Allen.

Pick: Titans and the Under

Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings & O/U 46.5

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Speaking of the Eagles, let’s finish up this discussion with the afternoon tilt between Philly and the Minny.

Revenge, thy name is…Kirk Cousins?

Not only is Minnesota seeking revenge on the Eagles for the 2017 NFC Championship drubbing laid on them, but Cousins is looking to get back at Philly for beating him up over the years when he led the Redskins offense.

Carson Wentz has been back for two weeks now, yet he has still not provided the caliber of play he displayed last season. But, Wentz has also only had Alshon Jeffery for one week, aiding in his lacking output.

Cousins, and the apparent revenge factor will not scare the Eagles at home. I’m not scared, either! The Birds take this one in a shoot-out!

Pick: Eagles and the Over

Stay tuned each week for my Weekly Betting Pick-Six articles right here on Fantasy Six Pack, and be sure to send me comments/questions on Twitter to @AppleGarthAlgar. Good luck this week!

Check out the rest of our 2018 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

About A.J. Applegarth

A.J. has been in the fantasy sports game for so long, that the first fantasy team he ever managed used football box scores from newspapers to calculate points. Since those days, A.J. has taken home numerous fantasy football and baseball championship titles. He has also taken his talents to a few fantasy basketball leagues and countless DFS games in more recent years. A.J. would openly admit that “luck” has been a factor in his two-plus decade-long success in fantasy sports, but he will also be the first one to tell you, “You can’t teach luck!” Catch A.J.’s witty banter and "Beer of the Week" picks on The Fantasy Six Pack Hour Podcast, and follow him on the Twitter-space @AppleGarthAlgar.

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