Fantasy Basketball

2019-20 NBA Betting Primer



We have finally done it, we’ve survived the (albeit quite exciting) offseason. To help us start smoothly into this new and exciting season of re-discovered parity I’d thought it fitting to introduce myself before I share with you my 2019-20 NBA Betting Primer.

I’m a 26-year-old business student from Germany that utilizes NBA gambling to survive without crippling student debts! (Note: I’m very far from a professional gambler, I merely make educated decisions and don’t have to deal with the American student loan system, which is always a plus).

I’ll be bringing you regular gambling updates and advice throughout the NBA season. I will mainly focus on the daily spreads and the odd Over/Under. I am leaving NBA DFS to the sharks.

Now, to make this article not quite as boring as it would be if I used it to only talk about myself, we are going to take a look at the season-long prop bets, such as MVP, NBA & Conference Champions and finally Rookie of the Year.

2019-20 NBA Betting Primer

Dominate your Fantasy Basketball Drafts with the Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard.

NBA Champions

Embed from Getty Images
Leading the field are the Los Angeles Clippers at +325. Right behind them are their arena siblings in the Los Angele Lakers at +400.

While betting on LeBron James has not often led to disappointment, I’d like us to look into a slightly more Eastern direction. My pick for this year’s NBA Champions comes in at +750 – the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Sixers have definitely lost some late-game creation by trading Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson. However, in my opinion, there is a distinct chance that they’ll have the absolute number one defense in the league. Maybe one of the all-time best!

Their starting five has at the very least three All-NBA-Defensive team caliber players. Possibly even four, with a lonely Tobias Harris looking in from the “just good defensive team”. I definitely didn’t just make that up.

There are clear issues, like the health of Joel Embiid or the spacing limitations that come with Ben Simmons. He has claimed he will take threes but let’s actually see it first.

That’s the fun part of this post-Warriors NBA. Every team is flawed. It will simply come down to who can mask their apparent weaknesses most effectively. I’d like to believe these 76ers have a clear chance of doing just that.

Conference Champions

Moving on to Conference Champions, to the surprise of absolutely nobody that actually read this far I’m picking the 76ers to be our Eastern Conference Champions (Their odds are currently at +230).

If you prefer a long-shot underdog type bet you might want to take a look at the Miami Heat who are currently at +2000. This would mean you believe in their defensive upside plus some serious development from the likes of Bam Adebayo, Justise Winslow and rookie Tyler Herro to fill out the need for space in a Jimmy Butler led offense. But if we are being realistic this will be a two-team conference centered around the Milwaukee Bucks and Philly.

The Western Conference is quite the opposite. You could make an argument for five teams, and if you got me drunk enough you could probably talk me into up to eight teams having a shot at a trip to the NBA Finals. Focusing on the more realistic teams we get these odds:

Clippers +200
Lakers +290
Rockets +500
Warriors +625
Jazz +850
Nuggets +1100.

The smart money is going to be on either the Lakers or Clippers. Since we are most definitely a smart community we will now have to decide where to stake our claim.

In my personal opinion, the Clippers are (don’t freak out Clippers Fans) a tiny bit overrated. To reach their peak they will have to rely heavily on Paul George repeating what was basically a career year. He will enter the season without a training camp due to shoulder surgery. I’d like to fade anyone that bets on him repeating last year’s effectiveness.

That leaves us with the LeBron James and Anthony Davis led Lakers (anyone else think this still feels weird to read?). I believe in a still very much top-10 LeBron who now has ANTHONY DAVIS playing next to him. Yes, LBJ is old(er) and might be getting a little bit more injury prone as he finally appears to have become a mortal human being but there is still nobody else you would want your team to rather have in a seven-game series.

Lastly, on the more analytical side, they actually project to be a near top 10 defense. As long as Rondo doesn’t play too many minutes, and they will cobble together enough shooting around an LBJ/AD pick and roll to have an insanely deadly closing lineup.

Rookie of the Year

Or what will be known as the Zion Williamson award.

Zion is currently at -150 and probably rightly so. I’d suggest simply not betting on RoY this time around, but if you absolutely can’t live without it, I’ll list some of the longshots that could work out.

Firstly, Ja Morant (+400) and RJ Barrett (+500) are the two “competitors” for Zion. This is mainly due to them being ball-dominant high draft picks with a very clear path to playing time this season. More minutes on bad teams will equal more production and therefore a half-decent chance at upsetting Zion.

The only actual dark horse that I could see making an impact here is Rui Hachimura (+2800) as the Washington Wizards have a giant hole at the Small Forward position that will be filled by somebody. Troy Brown was supposed to be that guy, but he will miss the start of the year, therefore, giving us the chance to talk ourselves into wasting, I meant winning, money on an opportunity based RoY bet.

The next piece of content we will bring you from a NBA betting perspective will be our projected win totals for each team. It will include suggested bets on the correlated over/under.

Unti then, check out our Fantasy Basketball content

About Leon

A 26 year old German business student that focuses most of his spare (and sometimes not spare) time on evolving his knowledge about the NBA. Mainly to then use that knowledge to make money gambling, but it's the evolving knowledge part we'd like to focus on publicly.

Recommended for you

1 Comment

  1. Pingback: 2019-20 NBA Season Win Total Projections - Eastern Conference - Fantasy Six Pack

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.