Fantasy Basketball

2019-20 NBA Season Win Total Projections – Eastern Conference



Welcome to the next installment of my NBA Betting series. This article features 2019-20 NBA Season Win Total Projections.

My first article highlighted who to bet on winning NBA Rookie of the Year, Eastern/Western Conference Champions and NBA Champions.

With NBA preseason in full swing, it is time for us to look at each team’s over/under and elaborate on our predicted season win totals.

We’ll start with the Eastern Conference, which is once again then weaker one of the pair.

I have since shared my Western Conference Win Total Projections!

2019-20 NBA Season Win Total Projections – Eastern Conference

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Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 34,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 29 | Projected Win Total: 33)

The Hawks haven’t actually improved the roster by adding any significant free agents, so you’d be betting on massive internal improvement (and the loss of Dewayne Dedmon not mattering) if you expect them to win 35 games, even in the weaker conference. While this may happen, as you’ll see throughout this article, my projections usually tend to be on the conservative side when it comes to individual player growth. Predicting Victor Oladipo-esque jumps will not be winning you bets in the long run.

Boston Celtics (O/U: 49,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 49 | Projected Win Total: 46)

By losing Al Horford, Boston also loses their defensive identity, he made their scheme work by being able to switch, if needed, but more importantly he could cover the pick and roll without the actual need to switch and therefore created a lot less deficiencies that an opponent could exploit. You now replace those minutes with Enes Kanter. I don’t think I need to add any analysis to that statement. The addition of Kemba Walker will help, and if the young guys take a couple of steps forward there is a chance of this being a 50-win team. I just personally don’t project that to be the likely outcome.

Brooklyn Nets (O/U: 43,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 42 | Projected Win Total: 44)

They’ve exchanged D’Angelo Russell for Kyrie Irving and brought back largely the same team around that swap. I don’t believe the addition of DeAndre Jordan will make a meaningful impact, but it doesn’t need to as Jarett Allen is a very capable starting center, especially during the regular season. Even during the inevitable 20 games that Kyrie will miss, the Nets have maybe the best backup PG in the league, Spencer Dinwiddie, to keep the ship afloat. Unless the Boston disaster follows Kyrie to Brooklyn, my projections don’t see a way of this going under.

Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 23,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 39 | Projected Win Total: 20)

Speaking of the Boston disaster, give a warm welcome to your new starting PG, Terry Rozier! This team will be an absolute mess. I believe in Borrego as a coach but given the roster talent, there just aren’t that many wins available for this team. Any team can get to 17-18 wins in the regular season, just by showing up to the arena on time, and I don’t see a way for Charlotte to stumble into many more after that.

Chicago Bulls (O/U: 31,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 22 | Projected Win Total: 30)

Now here’s something I haven’t said out loud in a while, I actually liked the Bulls offseason. The addition of Thomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young should absolutely help stabilize their young core. Especially Thomas should help a lot, young teams usually struggle due to not having enough reliable creators on the floor and he should improve that flaw quite a bit. My projections see their main issue being the coach, having him rated around the bottom of the league and I’d rather be proven wrong before believing in Jim Boylen.

Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U: 23,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 19 | Projected Win Total: 21)

Rounding out this amazing threesome of teams starting with C are the Cleveland Cavaliers. Heavy emphasis on the L’s in that name. Another young roster, just without the good offseason that the Bulls had. Their best player is Kevin Love who could play anywhere from 20 to 70 games, your guess is as good as mine. On top of that, they bring in a rookie coach who I have no data on. I’d stay away from this, If Beilein makes a great transition from College to Pro and Kevin Love stays healthy they could probably win around 26 games (Isn’t that a dark “best case scenario”).

Detroit Pistons (O/U: 38,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 41 | Projected Win Total: 39)

Moving away from the bottom of the league and rejoicing as we delve into perpetual mediocrity! Detroit didn’t do a whole lot, Derrick Rose should be an improvement over Ish Smith, when healthy, and Sekou Doumbouya might help a little bit on the wing. They’re basically the same team and I really struggle to say anything interesting about them so let’s watch Andre Drummond take a three in pre-season to get us hyped up!

Indiana Pacers (O/U: 47,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 48 | Projected Win Total: 44)

The main question with the Pacers will be when and in what shape is Victor Oladipo going to return. If he returns at close to 100% and plays 45-ish games then pencil me in for the over. I’d rather bet against that happening, as it seems far more likely he will take time to get into gear. There’s also the aspect of starting Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis together, which definitely didn’t work out last year. It has looked good in pre-season and Nate McMillan seems to have installed a little more movement to create the space that would otherwise be lacking when starting two centers together. I’d rather be on the lower side on how the lineup change and the Oladipo injury will play out, therefore my projections have them solidly going under.

Miami Heat (O/U: 43,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 39 | Projected Win Total: 47)

Adding Jimmy Butler is certainly a way to upgrade your team, another one would be having multiple injured rotation players come back healthy. And one could argue removing the malcontent of a player that isn’t playing as many minutes as he wants to, and constantly complains about that fact, would also help. The Heat did all three of those. “Losing” Hassan Whiteside might make someone that likes BoxScores think that the team will struggle at center, but Bam Adebayo should be a definite upgrade on both sides of the ball. Bam capably guarded the likes of Kris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo as primary assignments last season. There isn’t a lot of big men with the lateral quickness and agility required to do these things while also being a presence as a rim protector. The Heat should be a very good defensive team that added a proven crunch time scorer to carry the late-game execution.

Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 57,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 60 | Projected Win Total: 60)

The Bucks segment should be pretty self-explanatory, losing Malcolm Brogdon definitely lowers their playoff ceiling but doesn’t put too much of a dent into the well-oiled regular season machine that Coach Budenholzer has put together. Giannis might take another step forward, but even if he doesn’t the roster is deep enough with shooting to keep running last year’s scheme flawlessly. The defense might even see a slight uptick, adding Robin Lopez secures that the defensive scheme doesn’t have to be changed once his brother sits down for rest.

New York Knicks (O/U: 27,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 17 | Projected Win Total: 23)

Well, this is certainly going from one end of the spectrum to the other. The Knicks have added about 38 Power Forwards, now have three Point Guards that can’t shoot reliably and probably will give the ball to a rookie for extended periods of game time. Surprisingly, none of those things instill a whole lot of confidence in me. I have David Fizdale rated decently high but given the roster construction, I don’t see a path to success, even in relative Knicks terms, for this team.

Orlando Magic (O/U: 41,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 42 | Projected Win Total: 42)

Another team that didn’t do a lot this offseason, but probably didn’t have a clear path to big improvement by adding a reasonable Free Agent anyway. Their additions might provide some depth but if this team takes a leap it will be due to Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac taking leaps. They’ve both looked impressive in their preseason opener and the Magic are going to need more of that if they want to have a chance at competing for the higher seeds in the East. Whilst Markelle Fultz might never live up to being picked number one, he doesn’t need to in his role with the Magic. He will provide more than Michael-Carter-Williams did last season, even if Markelle doesn’t improve a single thing about his game. If you believe in their two wings having great seasons, this is a lock to go over, my projections always lean on the more conservative side in terms of projecting player growth and we therefore only scrape above that line.

Philadelphia 76ers (O/U: 54,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 51 | Projected Win Total: 57)

Everyone that read my NBA Betting Primer won’t be surprised about me having the 76ers as one of the best bets on the board. They’ve exchanged some late-game shot creation in Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson’s absolutely impressive perimeter defense and added one of the best defensive big men, in Al Horford, on top of that. They’ll be incredibly stout defensively, which is always a great baseline for regular-season success. And the addition of Horford provides security once they have to rest Joel Embiid, they now won’t fall off a cliff whenever Embiid has to sit as they can just slide Al Horford down to the five spot.

Toronto Raptors (O/U: 47,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 58 | Projected Win Total: 48)

Your NBA Champion Toronto Raptors! Well, missing one somewhat important piece. They have enough roster talent to still be a very good regular season team, which has lost its playoff ceiling when Kawhi Leonard chose to go home. The Raptors were around 17-5 in games Kawhi missed last season, and that’s without adding OG Anunoby into that slot. Nobody will argue that the Raptors are better without Kawhi, which is something that Win/Loss Record might indicate, but it does prove that they have a system they can rely on and enough talent to win games where the system might break down.

Washington Wizards (O/U: 26,5 | 2018-19 Win Total: 32 | Projected Win Total: 26)

I wish we could end the east on a high note but going in reverse alphabetic order just doesn’t feel right (and would end up with the Hawks at the end, which isn’t exactly a high note either). Starting the season with Ish Smith at PG is not great, having no actual backup PG’s could also be classified as not great. But at least the wing rotation is in solid hands, with Bradley Beal and CJ MILES? Troy Brown Jr. could’ve been a bright spot but since he is injured to start the year, we won’t get to see that for a while. Thomas Bryant is a nice starting center to have, his backup is Ian Mahinmi who is ALSO INJURED. This team could play a bench lineup of Justin Robinson, Isaac Bonga, Davis Bertans, Justin Anderson and Moritz Wagner. I fear that Beal has to play 40 minutes for this team to hit the over 26,5 but I also fear that Scott Brooks is inept enough to play someone that many minutes every night. Bet on your own peril.

Click here for our 2019-20 Fantasy Basketball content

About Leon

A 26 year old German business student that focuses most of his spare (and sometimes not spare) time on evolving his knowledge about the NBA. Mainly to then use that knowledge to make money gambling, but it's the evolving knowledge part we'd like to focus on publicly.

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