Daily Fantasy Sports

2019 DRAFT ADP Best Ball Championship Analysis – Week One

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As we wrap up May, we find ourselves in an exciting time for the best ball format.

DRAFT opened their mega tournament one week ago today, the $25 entry.

This was my favorite tournament last year and I LOVE doing the majority of my drafting in the summer.


There has been a week’s worth of data in this big tournament, and this week I wanted to focus on the top of the draft.

This is where you lock in the core of your team and shape the rest of your roster around that.

Nailing these picks are of the utmost importance.

There are a few big questions as you look to take on your top few rounds.

2019 DRAFT ADP Best Ball Championship Analysis

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Tight Ends

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For me, the biggest intrigue of the first two rounds in a 12 team best ball,  the Best Ball Championship specifically, has been the selections of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. They are the undisputed top three options at the scarcest position, and great pass catchers in their own right.

Travis Kelce typically goes before any WR, and a very common strategy has been taking two of these guys in the early rounds. I understand the strategy, stocking up on a bare resource. The best time to implore this strategy seems to be when selecting 1/2/3, getting a top RB to start and then cornering the tight end market.

I have been in a position where an Ertz/Kittle combo has been appealing.

This rounds out the rest of the top 12 tight ends per their ADP. Look at that jump! About 100 selections pass from the first tight end off the board to the 12th tight end off the board. That is a pretty big discrepancy, and a reason why you should have a plan with your tight ends.

There are a few guys who are going basically for free coming off injury later in drafts, and as training camp arrives their stock could rise such as Delanie Walker, who had been going as a top six TE last year.

Quarterbacks – When?

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These are the top five quarterbacks currently being drafted. As you can see, Mahomes typically is the first one off the board, but the past few drafts I’ve seen him fall a bit, and even saw Luck taken ahead of him in one at pick 52.

People drafting in this format, the tournament specifically, are smart people who know their stuff. Waiting on QBs is not a new science, and the QB’s just hang around. When to pull the trigger?

Recently, the board has been shaping up where I like to grab two solid quarterbacks in the top 11 rounds. It has seemingly differentiated my rosters, and it has always followed the board.

There are also great QB’s to be had after that top five. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson will typically make it to the 10/11th round and, if they finish as QB1 this year, would you be that surprised?

Where you select your QB and what value you get from it will be a massive factor in your in-season success. All of the quarterbacks seem to be in a good range, and based on the points they score they are still a premium.

Don’t forget, they are still the ones who will score the most points most of the time.

Favorite Flavor of Running Back

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Last year, the top of the draft was boring. If you were assigned the #1 pick, you let it auto-draft Todd Gurley and waited 22 picks until your next.

This year, you could make the case for four players, none of those being Mr. Gurley, whose ADP is rapidly falling. At his current 11.2 ADP, I’ve seen him fall to the second round where I will happily take a chance.

Barkley has been the most consistent top pick, and the next three players of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara all share an ADP within 0.7 slots of one another, proving it’s just about your favorite flavor.

I am smitten on Joe Mixon. When my best ball rankings are released, you will see him as my 6th running back. I think big things are ahead, and once the top 4 running backs are gone I have been turning my attention to Mixon. A bit earlier than his ADP, but little things like these are what can differentiate your lineup if you make it out of group play in the Championship. A six/seven spot jump in the top three rounds could be all the difference when all of the lineups are the same.

The next tier of running backs is what will win some leagues. Two of these guys will most likely finish in the top ten RB scoring.

Aaron Jones and Sony Michel have been the biggest fallers here, as people seem a bit scared off from the competition. The third round seems to be the place you need to take these guys and they are typically going to teams that get an elite WR.

Josh Jacobs is still surging up the board, now getting drafted in the third round. I expect him to settle around this slot and probably rise after a big preseason game.

Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb are my favorites here, and I have teams where I start three running backs, with a round one guy to go with Henry and Chubb. Those have ended up being favorite teams of mine.

If you go Kelce and/or some of the top WRs, and nail your selection of this group, you’ll be in a good spot.

Easier said than done!

Zero RB Feasible?

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If you are a zero RB guy, this is your dream scenario. You could theoretically end up with Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Keenan Allen as your first three picks with everybody getting their RB’s situated.

WR is so deep with so many good options, and these draft slots are more indicative of the position depth.

In Best Ball specifically, the wide receivers have the best chance of that random two catch, two TD game that will count for your score.

Nothing too shocking here in the top WRs getting drafted, although Adams being the second WR off the board on average is a bit surprising.

I like targeting Julio Jones on the turn when I am drafting towards the back, and love Antonio Brown in the second round. He hasn’t been available at this price in a long time and think he will trend up to one of the top five WRs by the time August comes around.

 


Happy drafting!


Check out the rest of our Fantasy Football content to get you prepared for the 2019 NFL Fantasy Football season.

About Finkytown

Bert is a 15+ year veteran in fantasy sports. He wanted to start writing about fantasy sports so here he is. Yahoo! calls him platinum. You can chop up with him on twitter @Finkytown.

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