2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

2019 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Infielders

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When looking at infielders there are a lot of them that are being overvalued in drafts when you look at overall value. A lot of this has to do with position scarcity and there is validity in that. There are fewer infielders you can trust at each position so they tend to go higher than their overall value really says they should.

I’m not saying you should pass on these infielders over your third outfielder because their overall value is less. What I’m saying is you need to pick the right one, or better yet know which ones you should avoid.

The five infielders below are players that are all solid players and have value, but not at their current ADP, making them overvalued.


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2019 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Infielders

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Javier Baez, 2B/3B/SS, Chicago Cubs

This is not a gross overvalue, but I have seen him go in the first round in quite a few mocks and drafts and that is too much. Honestly, I’m more of a backend second-round value for him.

Yes, I’m aware of the almost MVP season he had in 2018. However, there is regression in store for Baez. I know it is a boring excuse to have, but in this case, it is something you have to take seriously with Baez.

First off his ISO jumped up almost 60 points higher than his previous career-high. This along with a HR/FB rate jump led to 11 more home runs than before.

Second, his stolen bases jumped up by almost double his previous career high. His stolen percentage is fine, but with Bryant healthier this season I doubt they let him run as much to try to produce runs.

All this adds up to a decrease in his total stats. Still worthy of a second-round pick, just don’t go chasing last years stats and draft too early.

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals

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Mondesi was ridiculous last season in his 75 games up in the majors. He batted .276 with 14 home runs and 32 steals. I’m going to warn you now, be careful of chasing this kind of repeat performance throughout a full season.

What concerns me the most is his plate discipline. He only walked 4% of the time and also struck out a 27% clip. For someone who gets so much of their value from stolen bases, if he does not get on base enough then his value plummets.

To sum up Mondesi, he is a high ceiling-low floor player. He could be the next 20/40 (home runs/stolen bases). Or he could be the next speedster who has power potential to go 10/20. It is why I can’t take him at his current ADP.

Jonathan Villar, 2B, Baltimore Orioles

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Speaking of players with speed who have power potential, Villar is getting a lot of hype this year after having a decent second-half.

Let’s take a look at who Villar is. Just two years ago we saw Villar hit 19 home runs and steal a ridiculous 62 bags. He then followed that up with an underwhelming 11 and 23 (see what I mean by my statement about Mondesi?).

Last year was a bit of a bounce back as he hit 14 home runs and 35 steals. A lot of his bounce-back had to do with the stats he put up in Baltimore. In 54 games with the O’s, Villar hit eight home runs and stole 21 bases. Compare this with six and 14 in 85 games with Milwaukee and it obvious he improved…slightly.

His upside is fantastic, especially with the steals given the scarcity of the category. My issue is he has burned us once and almost twice, so I don’t like to be proven wrong twice on a player.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

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35 home runs, 108 RBI all with a .274 average in 2018! Those were Aguilar’s final numbers in the 2018 season. Wow, sign me up!

Those not paying attention will not realize that he had 24 home runs in the first half and just 11 in the second half. It was not just the home runs that plummeted either. His average fell from .298 to .245, RBI from 70 to 38. Some of this has to do with his HR/FB rate dropping from 27% to 19% combined with his FB rate dropping from 45% to 35%.

It really is hard to know just who Aguilar will be in 2019. There are some positives to take from the second half too. His walk, strikeout and hard-hit ball rate all stayed almost identical. All that being said, I won’t be trying to risk my fantasy season on him where he is being drafted currently.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Atlanta Braves

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Call me a man scorned here, but Donaldson is about dead to me (kept him two years in a row to get nowhere near his keeper value). Anyway, enough about me.

I’m not going to get into a lot of stats here with Donaldson. I think we all know when he is healthy, he is one of the best hitters in the game. Health though is the major issue as he has missed 159 games over the last two seasons.

 


These are not fluke injuries either. They have been the nagging, reoccurring types. Those are huge red flags to me and I will not take on the risk of Donaldson at his current ADP.


2019 Fantasy Baseball Position Previews
CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopOutfieldStarting PitcherRelief Pitcher

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About Joe Bond

Not just another "Average Joe" when it comes to Fantasy Sports, he is the fantasy brain trust behind the FantasySixPack.net website. Joe is one of the Experts included in the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings for Football, Baseball and Basketball and finished well each year. You can find him on Twitter, @F6P_Joe, where he is waiting by the keyboard for your question.

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