2019 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2019 Fantasy Football FSGA Expert Drafts: Affecting ADP and ECR


Ahhhh! It is officially Fantasy Football season! The start of July brings us training camps, draft preparation and best of all expert drafts! In these FSGA expert drafts we can see how the leading analysts really feel about players. The first two of which happened at the FSGA conference on Thursday.

With free agency and the draft behind us, all of the off-season movement and happenings should be over and we can get to research!

What’s that? The top running back over the past three years might be part of a committee due to degenerative knee issues? Oh? The Top receiver from last year might not play at all if not suspended half the season? Huh? One of the best Fantasy quarterbacks of the past five years is having serious shoulder issues?

Maybe all of the hay is not in the barn just yet. We can still learn valuable information from these early expert drafts.

Most of all, expert drafts help shape Average Draft Position (ADP) and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). All of us play in home leagues with people who just dabble in Fantasy Football as a hobby. Expert drafts like at the FSGA end up affecting how the common Fantasy Manager drafts his team.

Follow the Leader

People are sheep. That is just a fact. Many analysts will follow suit with the most recognized people. The FSGA expert drafts are the initial start to building that ECR and ADP. We can learn from how player values initially start to help decipher which guys settle into bargain prices come August.

There were actually two FSGA expert drafts this week. Both were 14-team exercises with some of the biggest names in the industry partaking. ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, The Athletic, Roto Wire and USA Today all had teams just to name a few.

I wanted to break down these FSGA expert drafts just a bit. I just wanted to point out some things that stood out as well as picks that will show how the ADP shapes up this year.

These two leagues were drafted with Points Per Reception scoring and 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX/1K/1DEF lineups. I’ll be comparing the picks to the current ECR as the ADP has not really fleshed itself out until after these expert drafts have taken place.

FSGA Expert Drafts

Free five-minute mock drafts against industry experts and custom analysis for your team with the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

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Draft A

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  • The Yahoo! Team of Joe Nazzaro and Mike Graben are after my heart as they went with Christian McCaffrey as the top pick. Many analysts seem to think that Saquon Barkley is the consensus top option this year, but I disagree. McCaffrey is a serious threat to go for 1,000/1,000 with 100 receptions and in full PPR is the definite top option for me.
  • The first eye-opener to me was that LeVeon Bell went sixth in both drafts. I just do not see how you can take him over David Johnson, Melvin Gordon or DeAndre Hopkins (let alone a few others). In the ECR over Fantasy Pros, Bell is currently 13th in PPR. I imagine this is a start of a climb upwards toward the Top Six.
  • Somehow in both drafts at two different pick slots, a team ended up with James Conner and Dalvin Cook as their first two picks. I can promise you I will not have any shares of either one at their current price point. What makes me feel even better about my stand on the two backs: both managers took a THIRD running back in Round 3 showing that they do not feel confident in their first two players. That does not sound like a great way to start your draft with picks in the first two rounds inspiring no confidence.
  • Mike Patch and Barry Golomb over at Fantasy Data broke the tight end dam taking Travis Kelce at pick 16. If you are in a league with me, I can almost assure you that Kelce is not getting to that pick. Zach Ertz and George Kittle both went at the end of Round 2.
  • I hate to harp on Scott Swanay again, but I just do not get Dalvin Cook over Antonio Brown. I don’t care how bad Derek Carr is Antonio Brown will get open enough to get the ball. Think of it this way: would you rather have Antonio Brown and David Montgomery or Dalvin Cook and Julian Edelman? I’m taking the first pair every day since I think Montgomery will put up damn near equal production to Cook.
  • Gavin Walters at Badder Beats pulled the trigger on Patrick Mahomes in the middle of Round 3. While this is a 14-team league, that still seems early for most expert drafts. Case in point, he went almost TWENTY-FIVE picks later in the other draft.
  • After a few years of wide receiver heavy drafts at the top, the tide seems to have turned back. There were 15 running backs and 10 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds. There were 16 wide receivers and 11 running backs taken in the third and fourth rounds.
  • Surprisingly, eight of the fourteen participants took two quarterbacks. In single-QB leagues, I am not an advocate of this, even with fourteen teams. Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr and Nick Foles all went undrafted and will be available to stream. A second quarterback is also usually the first player to be dropped on the waiver wire. Quarterback is too deep to waste a bench spot.
  • Gavin Walters is all about bucking the value-based drafting trend as he was the first person to take a quarterback, the first person to take a defense (Bears D/ST in ROUND 10!!) and the third person to take a kicker. I have kept track of it the past couple of years in one league where I stream defenses every week. Two of the last three years I have gotten more Fantasy Points from my combined streamers than the top unit at the end of the season.

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  • Tight End is an unusual position this season. The top three are clear cut. However, I’m not so sure that I wouldn’t rather have the 21st tight end drafted (Jimmy Graham) over the fourth tight end drafted (O.J. Howard). I mean Greg Olsen went in Round 13, one spot before a kicker. If he’s healthy that is some serious value. It looks like I will be waiting a while to pick one up if I miss on the elite three.
  • The most confusing draft to me is definitely Corey March and Rob Dougherty. They took four running backs in their first five picks which seems excessive… but getting Chris Carson in Round 5 is a great steal. I love getting Kyler Murray…. but they already had Andrew Luck and took Murray in Round 8 (although now I see his ADP is trending up). His WR2 is N’Keal Harry which does not inspire confidence, but then he pulled Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen late in the draft. To top it all off, he was the fourth person to take a defense, and he did so in Round 12.
  • My favorite team is probably the Yahoo Sports team. They got my top player in McCaffrey as well as an elite tight end. Their backs will catch a ton of passes as they pulled Jerick McKinnon and Dion Lewis at the 8/9 turn. I love the second year wide receivers they snagged in Anthony Miller and Michael Gallup. My one qualm would be taking their DEF/K one round too early. Instead of Malcolm Brown they could have had Benny Snell or Jamaal Williams who I think will both have roles this season regardless of injury.

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Draft B

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  • In this draft, Barkley went first and surprisingly Kamara went second ahead of Zeke/McCaffrey. It really is personal preference between the four top backs, although I still have Kamara a distant fourth. I do not think his workload will be increased as much as some think and Latavius Murray will get some run.
  • Colton and the Wolf were the culprits that started Conner/Cook in this draft. By having to back up their top two picks with their Round 3 selection, their WR1 is Allen Robinson and WR2 is Corey Davis. If Delanie Walker is healthy, I do not think they have a single player that will lead his team in receptions. Think about it: 32 teams, 14 managers, each person should have two team-leaders.
  • I’m all about getting an elite tight end this year. However, I am not passing on Julio Jones. He slipped all the way to 20 but Lisa Ann with SiriusXM took Ertz instead.

  • Howard Bender might have drafted the youngest team (starters-wise at least) I have ever seen. You have to go to his Round 10 pick to find the first person over the age of 24 and Peyton Barber is just 25. Every person on his team outside of Philip Rivers is 25 or younger with only 3 years or less of experience. Weirdly enough… I love his team and think it works!
  • -The quarterback bubble did not get popped until Round 5, which is more in line with most expert drafts. Weirdly enough though, TEN teams took two quarterbacks. Tom Brady went in the next to last round after FIVE kickers and SEVEN defenses had been taken.
  • -Raphael Rabe drafted the best team… for the 2015 season. With LeVeon, Antonio, A.J. Green, Russell Wilson, Jordan Reed and the Broncos D/ST, I would bet the majority of his team’s best Fantasy Football days are behind them.
  • -I would have to say that Mat Sposta with The Crown League drafted my favorite team. When Tyler Boyd is your WR3 (he finished as the WR17 last year) to couple with Hopkins/Julio (WR2 and WR4 from last year respectively) then you have a deep pass-catching group. Combine that with two solid breakout candidates at running back in Kerryon Johnson and Tarik Cohen along with the annually under-rated Adam Humphries and Sposta has the best RB/WR group. Oh yeah, and he got Aaron freaking Rodgers in Round Six.

ECR vs. ADP Thoughts

  • This is the first time I have looked at ADP from just two drafts and boy was it eye-opening. It really highlights that ADP is a general guideline because most players were taken at least 5+ spots up or down from their ADP in the two expert drafts.
  • The best example of ADP being misleading is Philip Lindsay. His ADP from the two expert drafts is 33. However, he was taken at Picks 20 and 46. So if you are in your draft and want Lindsay but think he will be there around Pick 33, you have a 50% chance of being gravely mistaken. Ironically, his ECR right now is 48. Do not use ADP or ECR as a set-in-stone pieces of information. Use them as guidelines to let you know when’s the LATEST that you should pull the trigger if you think you really want him.
  • There were 32 players drafted in both exercises that were at least 30 picks apart from where they were selected in the other league. That’s over two rounds in this format and THREE rounds of difference in 10-team leagues.
  • Of guys that did not get drafted in one of the leagues, Mohamed Sanu blew my mind. The guy was the WR30 last year with 66 catches for 838 yards. He actually had bad touchdown luck with just four scores, so you could see that increasing. There were 79 receivers selected in Draft A and I cannot believe all 14 drafters think Sanu should not have been one of them. He is a player that has WR3 value with WR1 upside if there is an injury to Julio or Calvin Ridley.
  • Marqise Lee had the widest range of anybody. He was taken 105th in Draft A and not selected in Draft B. I understand taking a flyer on him even though he was out all season last year. However, I am not taking that flyer in Round 8. Lee is currently 175th overall by ECR and WR69. This is a time where ADP/ECR can help you wait a few more rounds.
  • Lisa Ann had a couple of head-scratchers as well. She took Donte Moncrief at pick 93 (he went 162 in the other draft, ECR of 150) and Gus Edwards at pick 132 (undrafted in the other draft, ECR of 213). I get taking a flyer on Moncrief but not that soon. Edwards, on the other hand, I do not get. Mark Ingram was brought in to be the starter. Kenneth Dixon is still there. The Ravens drafted Justice Hill relatively early. I’m not seeing a line to production for Edwards.

That’s all I got from the FSGA Expert Drafts! Watch as the summer rolls along as these initial expert drafts affect ADP and ECR. Go check out our rankings to see where we stand!

About Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.

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