2019 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2019 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players

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Frozen feet, helmet preference, and another unlucky Luck are the offseason narratives that have kept us guessing. With preseason games slowly returning our lives to football normalcy, draft season has kicked into full gear.

Which is why there is no time better than now to check in on some players who you could potentially reach on as injuries, camp battles, and misleading coachspeak tweets intensify.

Using Fantasy Football Calculator’s 12 team, half-ppr ADP data for our valuations (8/11-8/13), here are some of 2019’s fantasy football overvalued players.

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2019 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players

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Quarterback

F6P writer Kevin Huo: “Quarterbacks can be obtained at a discounted price, like the candy you bring into the movie theater.” Wait and see is the way to go at quarterback in 2019, so consider most quarterbacks overvalued.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – ADP: 8.07 – QB9

SPLITRecord (QBR)Team PPGComp. %YPGAir Yards/AttTD:INT
Weeks 1-1110-1 (87.1)37.276.3%28510.229:2
Weeks 12-174-2 (52.9)20.769.2%234.56.37:5

Beautifully pointed out by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, nobody knows what exactly to expect from Brees in 2019. 2018 was a tale of two seasons as highlighted above.

Brees’ four rushing TDs in 2018 were a career high and unlikely to repeat for the almost 41 year old. Perennial stud center Max Unger retired this offseason. Mark Ingram is out, Latavius Murray is in. With higher upside and cieling players like Jared Goff (9.05) and Jameis Winston (10.04) available later, go running back or wide receiver over Brees and wait on QB.

Running Back

Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP: 2.10 – RB37

The end of the second round is too early for such a massive question mark. A question mark that produces a million more questions. How many pieces of this backfield would you need to feel comfortable with the pick? There’s currently three that are being drafted: Williams at 2.10, Carlos Hyde at 9.09 (and rising!), and Darwin Thompson at 12.10.

Williams only recently returned to practice and has been hampered by a sore hamstring. Recently he took to endorseing the potential RBBC approach in KC. Meanwhile Carlos Hyde has been hogging first team reps and scored in the Chiefs preseason opener. He was the only back to receive a carry with the first team offense in the Chief’s preseason opener with Williams out.

Williams’ career season high for rushing yards, set last year, is 256. His four 2018 rushing touchdowns more than doubled his career total of three entering 2018. Backs available beyond Wiliams’ ADP include Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, and Devonta Freeman. Pass on Williams for the clear better options at running backs or the low end WR1s available at the end of the second round.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears – ADP: 3.11 – RB27

David Montgomery Average Draft Position

ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator

I saw David Montgomery’s highlights from week one of the preseason and was genuinely stoked. And clearly so were all of you. Because he has very much ascended to august riser status with an attention grabbing 34th overall ADP price tag in half ppr leagues.

My concern with his ADP is the same concern I have with all 2018 Bears players. There are so many quality mouths to feed. Though Jordan Howard was shipped out, the Bears also signed stealthy fantasy contributor Mike Davis from Seattle. Tarik Cohen still should see between 8-12 touches per game after averaging 10.6 in 2018.

And Mitch Trubisky’s receiving corps is deceptively deep: post hype sleeper Trey Burton, another year removed from ACL surgery Allen Robinson, 2019 4th rounder Riley Ridley, 2019 sleeper Anthony Miller, firecracker Taylor Gabriel and firecracker #2 Cordarelle Patterson.

In the end, I circle back to Cohen and his 8-12 potential touches a game as the clear hit to Montgomery. Some other backs to consider taking over Montgomery include fellow rookie Josh Jacobs (3.11), the underrated and no longer Gronk shaded James White (5.07), and Broncos dynamo Phillip Lindsay (4.11). Montgomery’s price tag is too high for what will never evolve into a full time role in 2019.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 8.11 – RB40

Why?

Why make this your Disney wish upon a star moment? I’ll wait for Peyton Barber at 10.07 if I have to have a Bruce Arians back. 2019 fantasy football overvalued players official LVP: Ronald Jones.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson, New York Jets– ADP: 6.11 – WR30

Wide Receiver is oddly deep this year. If you’re in the market for a boom or bust WR3, you can wait well into the double digit rounds and are sure to find success. Anderson remains a polarizing name at the top of this boom or bust WR3 list for a second consecutive fantasy season.

Anderson’s 2018 with rookie Sam Darnold was exhaustingly disappointing from week to week. He crossed the 100 yard mark just twice in 14 games en route to a 94 target/50 reception campaign. Also disappointing were the regression in TDs and yards overall, along with a career low 53.2% catch rate.

Miami ranked 30th in football in pass attempts in 2018 under Gase. They were 18th in 2017. 18th is the highest a Gase coached offense has ranked in pass attempts since Peyton Manning retired. The Jets saw Jermaine Kearse and his 76 targets depart with Leve’on Bell and Jamison Crowder in.

Anderson isn’t going to be the consistent fantasy asset his ADP suggests he should be. Consider the higher upsides of Christian Kirk (6.11) and Dante Pettis (7.01) or waiting for wideouts like Marquez Valdes-Scantling (8.12) or Sterling Shepard (9.03).

D.K Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks– ADP: 10.03 – WR46

Since taking over in Seattle Pete Carroll has drafted thirteen wide receivers. Excluding the three drafted this year, only Tyler Lockett and UDFA Doug Baldwin started their careers with 500+ receiving yards. Golden Tate didn’t cross the 1,000 yard mark once in four seasons in Seattle. $8 million/year Paul Richardson has crossed 300 yards once across four seasons with Seattle and last year with Washington.

Seattle ranked 27th in pass attempts in 2018, and there seems to be no change in that philosophy heading into 2019. Dougie Baldwin’s retirement has coincided with Tyler Lockett’s rise and David Moore’s stellar sophomore season. The Seahawks likely run heavy attack combined with a shortage in targets should make D.K. Metcalf a hard pass at his current 10.o3 ADP.

Tight End

David Njoku- ADP: 8.11 – TE10

Outside of the elite-3 the emerging-3 (Howard, Engram, Henry), Jared Cook is the only TE I have considered before the 11th round in mock drafts. With all the talk surrounding the impact of ODB’s arrival on Jarvis Landry’s target share, Landry had already begun to be dialed down after Freddie Kitchens’ ascension.

Landry never saw double digit targets in Kitchen’s post week 9 takeover. In fact he saw his targets decrease heavily overall, falling from 11.75/game week 1-8 to 7.9/game from week 9 on. Njoku saw a similar Kitchens’ opportunity effect. Njoku averaged just 4.6 targets when Kitchens took over after 7.3/game in weeks 1-8.

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With ODB now in town and Kareem Hunt looming, Njoku isn’t worth a single digit round ADP unless you are married to his TD total being Ebronesque. Which is a very specific and lofty expectation for an unproven “athlete” tight end.

F6P Staff Writer’s Undervalued Players for 2019

 Kevin HuoSeylan LonquexMark Strausberg
QBBaker Mayfield (QB5)Kyler Murray (QB8)Matt Ryan (QB6)
RBLe'Veon Bell (RB6)
Tevin Coleman (RB26)
Kalen Ballage (RB44)
Derrick Henry (RB22)
Phillip Lindsay (RB25)
Sony Michel (RB24)
Damien Harris (RB50)
WRAntonio Brown (WR10)
Kenny Golladay (WR19)
Amari Cooper (WR13)
Robby Anderson (WR29)
D.K. Metcalf (WR46)
Josh Gordon (WR56)
TEZach Ertz (TE3)Jared Cook (TE8)Eric Ebron (TE9)

Make sure to visit the F6P Fantasy Football Page for more advice to get you prepared for the 2019 season.

About Samir Qurashi

Samir Qurashi is from the Bay. He thinks football is a good time. You can get at him with any fantasy football questions on the tweeter: @FSPsamir and by electronica: ssq.FSP@gmail.com. He remains unspooked.

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