2019 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2019 Fantasy Football Undervalued Players

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Preseason football was all over TV last night and the world began to feel right again.

Of course, minutes after the above thought had just begun to hit, I watched Deshaun Watson potentially lose his starting center and slot receiver for extended periods of time. A mere minutes into preseason, I was reminded.

Real life is not Madden franchise mode. You can’t turn injuries off, kid.


Which is why there is no time better than now to check in on some players who you could potentially reach on as injuries, camp battles, and misleading coachspeak tweets intensify.

Using Fantasy Football Calculator’s 12 team, half-ppr ADP data for our valuations, here are some undervalued players for the 2019 season.

2019 Fantasy Football Undervalued Players

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Quarterback

There are legitimately 16+ quarterbacks I would feel okay trotting out week to week with the waiver wire as potential reinforcements from the North. If “wait on quarterback” hasn’t become a part of your DNA, then we walk different paths in life. Even in 14-team leagues, by ADP, you could realistically wait till the double digit rounds and end up with Jimmy G. or Mitch T.

Living, breathing RBs are hard to come by and they should almost always take draft priority. Tight ends are even heavier at the top of the class. Focus as many of your single digit round picks on filling out your offensive skill positions with players you want before going QB.

If you want some quarterbacks I think are being undervalued:

  • Cam Newton (8.12) is very good at football, but was very hurt last season. If he’s healthy, a D.J. MooreCurtis Samuel led WR corps is very intriguing. The Panthers added the best Center on the market in free agency in Matt Paradis and stole Greg Little in the draft. Healthy Cam always has top-5 season long potential. His 240 career TDs is third most in NFL history through a player’s first eight seasons.
  • Josh Allen (14.01), rushed for at least 95 yards in four of his final six starts after returning from injury. He had five rushing TDs across those same six starts. He finished strong at Miami with a season high 3 Passing TDs. The Bills heavily upgraded their offensive line, added multiple running backs and wide receivers. Hurts you in leagues with heavy INT penalty.
  • Derek Carr (14.08). I’ll wait for you to clean the vomit off your keyboard. Good? Anyways, Carr set career highs with a 68.9% completion percentage and 4049 passing yards in 2018. What killed him was the career low 19 TDs for year one of the “Gruden 4ver” experiment. That should change with playmakers Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams replacing…I don’t even remember. Jordy Nelson and Brandon LaFell, maybe? Also consider the first round selection of Josh Jacobs and signing PFF’s top ranked playoff pass blocker. Money where my mouth is: Carr is my superflex in SFB9 and I couldn’t be happier about it.

Running Back

Marlon Mack – ADP: 3.07 – RB17

 

A classic case of injury fear. But I laugh at the man who claims he can predict injury at the running back position. Mack is just 23 entering his third NFL season and is healthy as I type this.

Mack is an essential part of an offense that features a top-5 offensive line, a top-5 QB, a top-15 WR, a top-5 rookie offensive skill player in Parris Campbell, and possibly two top-10 tight ends. Especially considering they play opposite a very underrated and young defense.

How essential is he? Did you know the Colts were undefeated (8-0) in games Mack scored a TD? Or that they were winless in 2018 (0-4) when he didn’t dress due to injury?

The 17th running back off the board, Mack is going behind the likes of:

Mack scored 9 TDs across 10 starts (12 games total), good enough for 7th in the NFL. Mack’s averages across his final six games in 2018 (includes 2 playoffs games): 19.4 carries, 97.2 rush yards, 5.0 yds/car, a TD, 2 targets, 1.4 catches.

And before you even think it…No. Absolutely not. Donta Foreman does not hurt Mack’s anything anywhere anyhow. Don’t let a Donta Foreman narrative influence you ever again.

Be above the Dontafluence. Be above injury speculation. Take Mack at the end of the second round or early third, you have yourself a potential RB1 on a top-5 offense. In the back of your mind, you know grabbing a top-10 potential RB whenever you can is a no brainer move. Take Mack before Keenan Allen (3.01), T.Y. Hilton(3.02), and Adam Thielen (3.04) too.

Jordan Howard – ADP: 8.01 – RB37

Unsexy does not sell. Jordan Howard has unfortunately become, unsexy for fantasy purposes. But if I pounded an adjacent table in front of you and asked you if Matt Nagy was a wise man, surely you would laugh and we would touch tips gingerly.

We thought Trey Burton was signed to play a Travis Kelce role, that Tarik Cohen would have some consistency, and Allen Robinson would be a WR2. None of those things happened and Howard also was tough to gauge from week to week.

But when the the Eagles traded a conditional sixth round pick to kick the tires on a back who had just averaged a career worst 3.7 y/car and failed to cross the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in his three NFL seasons, my ears perked up. Cats! What does Howie Roseman’s brain know?

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The Eagles finished 2018 with the 28th lowest total rushing yards while averaging the third worst yards per carry in the NFL. Yet, the Eagles are PFF’s top ranked offensive line entering 2019. The Eagles faithful and beat writers know that Howard has the keys to the job. Doug Pederson is going to unleash Howard to re-establish the run, giving Howard the opportunity to improve on his RB2 status (he was RB20 last year). He’s a solid ZeroRB target.

Matt Breida – ADP: 12.04 – RB53

Last year’s RB25 despite playing in only 14 games, Matt Breida rewarded dialed in owners who snagged him late in drafts. His ADP last year? 12.07, RB52. Drafted 52, finished 25. Breida hit his doubters with the inverse curse.

The Tevin Coleman effect has understandably scared many away. I agree that Coleman is in line for a good season as well. But that doesn’t mean Breida just ups and vanishes.

Admittedly, it felt like Breida limped off the field twice a game last season. But the addition of Coleman is actually a plus for his durability. The Niners 2018 RB contingency (not including FB Kyle Juszczyk) averaged 26 touches/game, led by Breida and Alfred Morris. The 12.8 touches/game Breida had last year can absolutely be equaled even with Coleman in the mix.

Coleman played under Niners HC Kyle Shanahan for two seasons in Atlanta. Ignoring the first rookie year, he averaged 11.5 touches/game during his 2016 sophomore season. In the two seasons since Shanahan’s departure Coleman has averaged 12.3 touches/ game. The niners didn’t pay Coleman starter money (2y, $10mil). They paid him two back system money.

Breida should return the same highly discounted RB2 value he provided in 2018. There’s hope for even more with the scheduled returns of Jimmy G. and possibly center Weston Richburg from injury.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson – ADP: 10.05 – WR47

To all my best ball bretheren, heed F6P’s Joe Bond and AJ Applegarth’s call: DeSean Jackson should be $traight money in his return to the Linc.

Last we heard, Carson Wentz is loving himself some Desean Jackson as well. He will be boom or bust but he still has the wheels to set the field on fire. And he should be a fantastic FLEX option for the gamber within every owner.

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos– ADP: 10.09 – WR49

The video was taken three weeks ago. And man was I a Manny Sanders doubter before it dropped. Mostly because “science.” The man is 32 years old and was seven months removed from an Achilles tear. Kevin Durant suffered the same injury and he’s already out until well beyond the moment Kyrie implodes the Brooklyn situation with his feelings.

Sanders was the WR22 last season despite missing four games and tearing his Achilles. It’s unbelievable he was out there on the field making cuts in July. Then the news broke that he and Courtland Sutton were scuffling in practice on Wednesday. Now I’m more in on Sanders than ever. Only a healthy 5’11 180 pound man would pick a fight with 6’4, 214 pound Courtland Sutton.

I am sure Joe Flacco doesn’t thrill you. I understand. But Flacco once had an older WR coming of an achilles tear named Steve Smith, so he’s lived this life. I like Courtland Sutton and Daesean Hamilton too, but if Sanders is healthy, he has a chance to be a  consistent high-end WR3, if not more.

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders– ADP: 12.12 – WR56

Tyrell Williams Career Receiving Statistics
Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Fmb
2015 4 0 5 2 90 45.0 1 80 0.5 22.5 40.0% 18.0 0
2016 16 12 119 69 1059 15.3 7 51 4.3 66.2 58.0% 8.9 0
2017 16 15 69 43 728 16.9 4 75 2.7 45.5 62.3% 10.6 1
2018 16 10 65 41 653 15.9 5 75 2.6 40.8 63.1% 10.0 2
Care 52 37 258 155 2530 16.3 17 80 3.0 48.7 60.1% 9.8 3
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2019.

The Raiders have 34 vacated targets left over after swapping in Tyrell Williams (65), AB84 (170), and Ryan Grant (51) for Jared Cook (101) and Seth Roberts (61). I don’t see Ryan Grant being anything more than Seth Roberts (unreal to actually write a sentence metioning Ryan Grant and Seth Roberts) and I believe those vacated targets mostly fall to Williams.

Williams’ 2016 sophomore season was filled with career highs across targets, receptions, yards, and TDs, averaging 4.3 receptions and 66.2 yards per game. He should see 80-120 targets in this offense. In addition to being a major part of what should be an improved offense (scroll up to QB section to see my quick take on Carr), there is hope Williams steps in for the departed Jared Cook as a red zone threat. The 6’4 receiver connected with Carr on a red zone TD recently in a joint practice with the Rams.

Hopefully you can act quickly. With AB84’s health in question, Williams could be the Raider’s main target come September. His ADP could be on the rise.

Tight End

Jack Doyle – ADP: 13.11 – TE18

It’s a shame that Jack Doyle wasn’t suited up for the Colts preseason opener. It would have done wonders for fantasy owner’s confidence. Nevertheless, tight end is chalk full of undervalued players. Mostly because the hope is you can get away with draft one.

For the non-streamers of the world who value waiting on the position, Jack Doyle is one the most severely underrated players in all of fantasy headed into 2019. Battling through injuries that led to time missed in this season’s offseason program, Doyle is a forgotten man behind a giant TD-inflated shadow named Ebron.

Ebron is not a bad TE for fantasy purposes this year, but Doyle remains the more consistent and useful fantasy player when healthy. Luck locks on to him and for good purpose. If he can find health in 2019, he’s a lock for a top-12 tight end finish in half and full PPR leagues.


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F6P Staff Writer’s Undervalued Players for 2019

 Richard SavillKevin HuoSeylan LonquexMark Strausberg
QBMitch Trubisky (QB20)Lamar Jackson (QB16)Cam Newton (QB10)Jimmy Garrapolo (QB19)
RBDevonta Freeman (RB18)
Dion Lewis (RB56)
Sony Michel (RB25)
Miles Sanders (RB35)
Tarik Cohen (RB27)
Royce Freeman (RB38)
Lamar Miller (RB27)
Ronald Jones (RB40)
WRKeke Coutee (WR45)
Anthony Miller (WR50)
Christian Kirk (WR32)
Keke Coutee (WR45)
Larry Fitzgerald (WR37)
DeSean Jackson (WR47)
Albert Wilson (UDFA)
Paul Richardson (UDFA)
TEDelaine Walker (TE12)Jordan Reed (TE17)Delaine Walker (TE12)Jordan Thomas (UDFA)

Make sure to visit the F6P Fantasy Football Page for more advice to get you prepared for the 2019 season.

About Samir Qurashi

Samir Qurashi is from the Bay. He thinks football is a good time. You can get at him with any fantasy football questions on the tweeter: @FSPsamir and by electronica: ssq.FSP@gmail.com. He remains unspooked.

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