Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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As always, before we venture off into a new week, let’s recap Week 9 of the stream-o chart. Well, do we have to?!

As always, shout out to my colleague, Keith Lott, for the visual. Not as pretty of a graph as one would hope with a ton of variance. That’s the life of defense streaming, but you’ve got to trust the process. As for how my picks went last week…

  • I was all over the place with my streaming options. The Cowboys gave you an awesome stream with a late turnover for a touchdown on Monday night. Otherwise, while the Browns and Jets gave you DST1 weeks, it was nothing special. Additionally, my Seahawks call was horrendous in a game that they almost lost to Tampa.
  • I actually did tell you to avoid the right defenses. The TitansBears, and Jaguars all gave you unstreamworthy weeks. Still, unless you had the Cowboys or Steelers, it didn’t really matter who you streamed last week.

Let’s put that week behind us and sprint to Week 10! However, the best Stream-O-Matic score of the week goes to the Saints at 109, which is only 72% of the maximum score. The average percentage of the maximum score for the top-ranked defense on the chart is 85%. There are going to be some tough decisions out there so be ready to get weird. Right up my alley!

Note: Own% this week is based on pre-waiver wire numbers. I will be trying to get this information out on Tuesdays from now on so people can claim/FAAB accordingly!

2019 Fantasy Football Week 10 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on 12-team ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
109.0Saints73.6ATL502313152627
108.0Bears92.7DET552111142725
106.0Bills93.9CLE051714242818
106.049ers93.4SEA50221253131
104.0Colts37.7MIA502621231415
97.0Giants2.7NYJ50192626138
96.0Chiefs13.7TEN001625181522
95.0Packers28.7CAR551823211013
95.0Rams73.7PIT00202222229
89.0Ravens33.9CIN002515191812
89.0Jets20.5NYG501324161714
88.0Browns30.1BUF552420121111
84.0Steelers61.6LAR509573028
81.0Panthers70.1GB0551622924
79.0Vikings81.1DAL0083172526
70.0Cowboys75.4MIN5015732416
67.0Buccaneers2.3ARI5011224817
66.0Titans55.4KC507912321
64.0Patriots99.1BYE----------3232
62.0Lions10.1CHI0514171169
55.0Cardinals4.7TB002192545
51.0Seahawks57.3SF006102096
49.0Chargers49.1OAK0012110197
44.0Eagles51.8BYE----------2123
43.0Raiders0.8LAC501061354
42.0Broncos28.9BYE----------1230
40.0Jaguars73.4BYE----------2020
35.0Texans19.2BYE----------1619
33.0Dolphins1.1IND00418821
27.0Bengals0.6BAL5038632
18.0Falcons1.7NO0014913
17.0Redskins14.8BYE----------710

Defenses on Bye Week: Bengals, Falcons, Rams, Saints

Optimum Score: 152

Minimum Score: 2

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

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  • Despite winning their first game of the season, the Dolphins still allowed a DST1 week to their opponent. This sets up well for the Indianapolis Colts defense this weekend as a heavy home favorite. Don’t fix what isn’t broke.
  • I’m drawing my line in the sand in this battle of the Meadowlands and standing on the side of the New York Giants. I just think the G-Men are playing more inspired football right now than the Jets (who I’ll mention a little later) and have more things going their way at the moment. If Le’Veon sits, the Jets will be asking more of Sam Darnold. That should spell doom.
  • There are two really strange things going on in the NFL right now. Ryan Tannehill looks like a competent quarterback and the Kansas City Chiefs defense looks great since the Mahomes injury. Something’s gotta give this weekend in Tennessee! I would be willing to stream the KC defense in a pinch.
  • Ryan Finley is getting the start for the Bengals. Looks up Bengals’ opponent on the Google machine. So, you should TOTALLY play the Baltimore Ravens defense this week… For real though, they’ve been improving and adding Marcus Peters should certainly boost their secondary.

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

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  • As mentioned previously, I’m off the New York Jets this week. I think Daniel Jones has looked better than the stats have suggested and the offense is finally starting to come together. The Jets just allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to have a top-five fantasy week at QB. You can’t trust them.
  • Just making sure you aren’t trying to roll out the Cleveland Browns defense this week. Noah Fant stiff-armed their entire defense last week. They let Brandon Allen beat them. They’ll be hard-pressed to stop Josh Allen (unrelated) here in Week 10.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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