2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview: Juncture

by Richard Savill
2022 Fantasy Football Week 12 Blurbview

Some of us move on after this week and some of us do not. We're offering fantasy advice to far less people now, but the good thing about this column is that I straddle the line between real and fantasy football. You still have an interesting guide for the NFL weekend action ahead no matter what your state of play is.

You probably know several strategies already when it comes to playoffs. Hoarding defenses, handcuffing, streaming quarterbacks, etc. Much of this is common sense and I wouldn't dare play down to your sensibilities. If you need it, we have writers and podcasters here at F6P to refresh you on this stuff anyway.

Playoffs are where stats versus intuition conflict. We always hear "start your studs" no matter what the weather. Playoffs occur during the coldest time of the year making it just that much harder for banged up players to perform. Statistics can't make that distinction accurately - only you can.

Bear it in mind for your playoff matchups, but remain measured in your approach. I'm just saying that an NFL team's opponent is not the only consideration for a start or sit.

2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview 2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview

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Games to Watch 2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview

A brief rundown of the games this weekend. You have your fantasy lineups set, now it's time to watch 'em play.

Early Sunday: 49ers (10-1) at Ravens (9-2) -6.0 46.0

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2018's potential Super Bowl game between the Chiefs and Rams was epic. It's almost like getting two Super Bowls in the same season when the schedule works out that way.

Here again in 2019, we have another de facto in-season Super Bowl with major playoff implications for both conferences. This game doesn't have anywhere near the offensive potential of the 2018 "preview", but it is certainly a most interesting game. The Chiefs and Packers in Week 8 was okay, but without Patrick Mahomes for that one, it didn't have the same anticipation.

Lamar Jackson is a different quarterback from the previous victims of the 49ers' marauding defense. Only Russell Wilson, another MVP candidate, escaped with a win against them. Even then it took overtime and a missed field goal from a backup kicker.

As you know, both teams feature the running game as their main point of attack. The Ravens differ obviously in that Jackson is an active participant of that attack. I doubt the Ravens will tamper with their system too much in preparation for the 49ers. However, as they may have learned from the Seahawks, chunk yardage through the passing game is essential to success.

For the 49ers on offense, their task is trickier. The Ravens defense are near the top in takeaways just as the 49ers are and being at home tends to favor the defense.

The 49ers have steadily crept up the list for most penalty yardage in recent weeks, so maintaining discipline and not taking bad penalties is key for the 49ers.

Over their last four games, the Ravens have allowed the 4th fewest yards rushing and the 49ers the 4th most. This is where the game strikes the most critical imbalance.

Rainy weather expected.

Fun Fact: Through 11 games, the Ravens and 49ers are first and second in total points scored (386-332).
Sleeper: Willie Snead, WR, Ravens

Other Early Sunday Games in Brief...

Browns (5-6) at Steelers (6-5) +2.0 39.0

In this age of castigating social media lenses, it would not surprise me if the league passed a private memo to these teams. War paint rivalries ain't what they used to be. Nevertheless, human nature is not origami. It is with timely suspicion that Duck Hodges starts for the Steelers. The Browns are in for a warm welcome from the Pittsburgh fans. Tighten your chin straps.

2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview

Redskins (2-9) at Panthers (5-6) -10.0 40.0

The Panthers are close to elimination by the math. Hopefully Christian McCaffrey's workload holds up as his league records remain in play. The Redskins are the worst team versus the run giving CMC a prime opportunity for bulking up the stats.

Titans (6-5) at Colts (6-5) -2.5 43.5

A game with playoff atmosphere. With the Texans up against the Patriots Sunday night, the AFC South remains very much in play. Derrick Henry has notched up heavy ground yardage and six TDs in his last three outings. A.J. Brown rises while Corey Davis falls as the Titans emerge as worthy contenders. The Colts are holding up despite several injuries on offense.

Jets (4-7) at Bengals (0-11) +3.0 41.0

Andy Dalton returns from the bench. For how long, we don't know. Like all teams that face the porous Bengals defense, the Jets have plenty of sleeper options for those pulling out the stops to make the fantasy playoffs.

Packers (8-3) at Giants (2-9) +6.5 45.5

Coming off a pounding in San Francisco, Aaron Rodgers will find some relief against a Giants defense with only four sacks in their last three games. The Giants have also given up the third most rushing touchdowns this season; allowing Aaron Jones a chance to thaw out. However, it is Saquon Barkley who really needs the de-icer. He hasn't scored a TD since Week 8.

Eagles (5-6) at Dolphins (2-9) +10.0 45.0

With the Cowboys' loss against the Bills, the Eagles suddenly control their own destiny to win the ugly NFC East. Jay Ajayi will once again take the fantasy test, but it is clear that he is not fully entering the Jordan Howard (Q) role; allowing more work to Miles Sanders. Weaponless Carson Wentz continues to struggle moving the Eagles offense - even in cake matchups like this.

Buccaneers (4-7) at Jaguars (4-7) +1.5 48.5

Battle of the spoilers. Both teams can beat anybody on a good day, but it is the Buccaneers who seem to have a clearer direction looking ahead to 2020. Jameis Winston throws a lot of picks, but still comes out with fantasy acceptable numbers. He's scooting for first downs a bit more too. The rust on Nick Foles is apparent, but he does your Jaguars receivers no fantasy harm.

Late Sunday: Raiders (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4) -10.0 51.0

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The playoff importance factor is 86/100 for this game.

Josh Jacobs has four 100+ yard rushing games this season. He apparently played through an injury last week, which would explain the drop to his lowest total of the season at just 34 yards.

The futility of the running game contributed to Derek Carr's benching and the 34-3 drubbing at the hands of the Jets.

The Chiefs are off a bye week and Damien Williams is out. Apparently, Darwin Thompson will finally have more involvement in the backfield. Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy have the main workload. But...

Kansas City weather for Sunday: Cloudy and windy. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

This is where you may need to temper expectations for deep throws from Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes. The short passing game may take precedent on both sides.

Hunter Renfrow is out for the Raiders and Tyreek Hill (hamstring) will play barring any setbacks.

Fun Fact: The Chiefs have won nine of their last ten against the Raiders.
Sleeper: Zay Jones, WR, Raiders

Other Late Sunday Games in Brief...

2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Preview

Chargers (4-7) at Broncos (3-8) +3.0 38.5

Owners of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams continue to wait for Philip Rivers to shake out of the tailspin. The quality targets are reaching Hunter Henry, leaving little for anyone else. This is a reasonably fantasy level game where your regular starters should meet or exceed expectations.

Rams (6-5) at Cardinals (3-7-1) +3.0 47.5

Fantasy confidence in the Rams offense continues to drift. Jared Goff is nowhere near his 2018 self and Todd Gurley looks spent. However, a worse fantasy decline resides with David Johnson of the Cardinals. Droppable. His recent output practically puts him off the fantasy radar. Kenyan Drake has taken over and Chase Edmonds is the relief back with upside.

Featured Games

Sunday Night: Patriots (10-1) at Texans (7-4) +3.0 45.0

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This is the first of three major tests for the Patriots of their last five games. The other two being the Chiefs next week and the Bills in Week 16.

For the Texans, the race in the AFC South is at stake with the afforementioned Colts and Titans hammering out playoff positions in their own game.

The Patriots defense will attack through the front door to limit Deshaun Watson from his downfield threats of Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. Pressures are the key to forcing Watson into short gains and keeping Fuller and Hopkins from breaking coverage.

If the Patriots allow Watson to set, he'll burn them no matter how well Stefon Gilmore and Jason McCourty cover those those receivers. Expect the blitz as much as Belichick dares.

As for the Patriots on offense, they are dwindling into mediocrity fast. Last week, they needed to rely on their youngsters to carry the load with Julian Edelman while Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett sat out out with injuries.

The Patriots deperately need to revive Sony Michel and press the running attack hard. By keeping their defense fresh with ball control is their best way of holding down the Texans and put them away in that Belichick customary style.

I expect we're in for a thriller and good way to end the holiday weekend in the NFL.

Fun Fact: Including playoffs, the Texans have just one win against the Patriots in 11 meetings. Their last came in Week 17 of the 2009 season - eight straight defeats followed.
Sleeper: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots

Monday Night: Vikings (8-3) at Seahawks (9-2) -3.0 50.0

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The Seahawks and Vikings will know if a win propels them into first place in their respective divisions following Sunday's results.

The Saints hold a tie-breaker over the Seahawks, so second seed is the best they can achieve should the Ravens down the 49ers.

As for the Vikings, the Packers need to lose for them to leap frog into the third seed and first place in the NFC North.

This game has a high playoff importance factor of 154/100 and both teams know it.

Both teams prefer a run-first scheme, but lean more toward a more balanced attack than other teams which more extensively employ RPOs in their offensive repertoire.

It's a challenge for Russell Wilson who held MVP consideration for most of the season until Lamar Jackson stormed ahead of him. Nonetheless, Wilson can wow everyone with his own recency bias having the last word in Week 13. We shall see.

The Vikings have allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season (1st), so Wilson will need to resort to the air attack.

On the other side, The Seahawks are an opportunistic defense and are third in takeaways.

The difference maker for this game is Dalvin Cook and getting contain on him is essential for the Seahawks to win this game.

Chris Carson has a longer leash than the transatlantic cable for his fumbling issues. He's apparently set to resume his regular role despite the fantasy presumption of Rashaad Penny stepping into the workhorse role. Whether this really is the case that Pete Carroll will pass off the fumbling remains something we will know for sure on Monday.

Fun Fact:The Vikings have lost five straight games coming out of their bye week on the road following a win at home. They have also lost five straight to the Seahawks.
Sleeper: Irv Smith, TE, Vikings

In the Booth on Sunday

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Tony Romo

CBS Early

Browns at Steelers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Redskins at Panthers: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
Titans at Colts: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon
Jets at Bengals: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

FOX Early

49ers at Ravens: Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis
Packers at Giants: Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman
Eagles at Dolphins: Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber
Buccaneers at Jaguars: Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth

CBS Late

Raiders at Chiefs: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Chargers at Broncos: Andrew Catalon, James Lofton

FOX Late

Rams at Cardinals: Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our great team of writers.

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