Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 15 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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How did round one of the playoffs go? Well, if you’re still here, I suppose that means pretty well. Or you’re in denial. Either way, I’m happy to have you!

Once again, I’m going to try to help those who play this week as well as those who are already looking ahead to Week 16. Let’s point out a few teams on the chart that are owned in less than half of ESPN leagues:

  • Does the emergence of Drew Lock worry you? He has looked very good the past two weeks, leading Denver to back-to-back wins. This puts the Kansas City Chiefs in a precarious situation in Week 15. The Chiefs defense has looked very strong the past few weeks, but those were against older, immobile quarterbacks in favorable defensive conditions. However, we should be getting those conditions again this week in KC and I’m on board for streaming the 12-point favorites.
  • Here we go again – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers find their way to the top ten on the chart. I would say this is about 75% due to the matchup against the Lions, who have no run game and David Blough slinging the rock. They’re more of a deep league or DFS play for me after how they looked last week. If you told me Jameis had one or fewer turnovers in this game, I’d be higher on the Bucs DST, but such is life.

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  • I love the Seattle Seahawks defense this week against the Panthers. It’ll be a get-right game for Seattle coming off an embarrassing loss. On the other hand, Kyle Allen just looks way off for the Panthers and, while they’ll score, turnovers and sacks will be bountiful. Stream the ‘Hawks with confidence!
  • If you’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans in your playoff run for this long, it’ll be hard to stop this week. However, I don’t know how to feel about this matchup with the Texans. They are extremely inconsistent and I don’t want to have to guess which Houston team we see – the one that whooped the Patriots or the one that took the whooping from the Broncos. I’d be looking to pivot.

2019 Fantasy Football Week 15 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on 12-team ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
135.049ers92.3ATL502725173031
131.0Ravens80.6NYJ503222142929
130.0Steelers88.6BUF50292783130
125.0Eagles65.3WAS052832221919
125.0Bills81.7PIT002420262728
120.0Patriots97.7CIN00311873232
118.0Chiefs23.8DEN503017242220
116.0Buccaneers6.9DET001926301823
107.0Vikings85.4LAC00228292325
106.0Browns64.3ARI001731251617
105.0Seahawks34.3CAR002128192116
101.0Saints86.4IND50257152524
100.0Titans32.6HOU501519202615
98.0Giants4.4MIA5520242888
93.0Packers57.9CHI552611231013
89.0Bears86.8GB05162112026
82.5Rams71.7DAL0012.54112827
80.0Redskins15.8PHI551812121414
76.0Panthers57.3SEA50529161110
73.0Lions11.3TB508133269
69.5Cowboys49.2LAR5012.52271211
69.0Jets41.7BAL0011492421
68.0Cardinals5.3CLE509163125
59.0Texans22.3TEN006301076
58.0Chargers36.2MIN50141021512
55.0Raiders12.1JAX502315552
49.0Falcons6.6SF002231347
45.0Broncos18.0KC003341322
45.0Dolphins1.1NYG051162111
43.0Jaguars56.2OAK00751894
43.0Colts53.4NO004131718
36.0Bengals2.1NE50109633

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Optimum Score: 170

Minimum Score: 5

Early Week 16 Stream-O-Matic Rankings

I ran the numbers through the Stream-O for Week 15 (minus Vegas odds). Here are the teams that rated higher than the average Stream-O score of 85:

  1. Patriots (vs. BUF) – 133
  2. Ravens (at CLE) – 129
  3. Steelers (at NYJ) – 128
  4. Broncos (vs. DET) – 123
  5. Jets (vs. PIT) – 122
  6. Seahawks (vs. ARI) – 121
  7. 49ers (vs. LAR) – 110
  8. Chiefs (at CHI) – 101
  9. Bills (at NE) – 100
  10. Rams (at SF) – 99
  11. Colts (vs. CAR) – 98
  12. Vikings (vs. GB) – 96
  13. Buccaneers (vs. HOU) – 95
  14. Saints (at TEN) – 90
  15. Redskins (vs. NYG) – 88
  16. Chargers (vs. OAK) – 87
  17. Giants (at WSH) – 87

These are pretty much all the options that people will be wondering who to stream or not for championship week. Let’s sort through these really quick.


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  • I mentioned the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs as streamers for Week 15 and you get double points for picking them up considering their matchups in Week 15. Makes them both priorities on the waiver wire this week!
  • The Denver Broncos are attractive with the Lions coming to Mile High Stadium. That could be a game where Denver just blows out Detroit.

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  • The New York Jets present themselves as a deep league streaming option against Duck Hodges and the Steelers at home. If I were betting blindly on a line for next week, it would be the under on this game. This has ‘gross’ written all over it.
  • When looking at higher-owned defenses to drop, the Los Angeles RamsNew Orleans Saints, and Chicago Bears have to top the list. You aren’t starting any of them this week or next, so it’s time to cut the ties. Additionally, if you can find a better option than the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, then I would be fine dropping them (GB matchup next week).

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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