Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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In this week’s Stream-O-Matic, stream against the Dolphins and Jets! Wait, that’s every week. Hey, the chart has other thoughts too!

The Patriots put up a monstrous performance in Week 2 and won many fantasy people their matchups. They’ll most certainly keep it up in a game where they are favored for 20+ points against Luke Falk and the Jets.

Speaking of 20+ point favorites, the Cowboys will be hosting the hapless Dolphins here in Week 3. I will not waste my time and effort trying to tell you why playing them is a good idea.

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Well, let’s dive into the chart for Week 3. The chart grows stronger as the season wears on, so it’s important to combine the generated rankings with common sense.

2019 Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings. (NOTE: I’m using DAVE rankings for the first few weeks.)

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
140.0Patriots94.1NYJ503226133232
133.0Vikings88.8OAK503020232728
130.0Cowboys68MIA503129321122
126.5Rams92.1CLE0516.525302327
121.5Titans63.2JAX0526.524163020
118.549ers32.5PIT5026.51243131
116.0Packers38.9DEN552915142919
115.0Bills87.6CIN552523102423
98.0Colts22.9ATL501816271715
95.0Bears98.8WAS0028872230
95.0Eagles51.5DET502410221024
94.5Jaguars79.8TEN5522.5316421
93.0Buccaneers3.9NYG50215202616
92.0Texans45LAC00919251326
91.0Chargers69.2HOU501932111212
88.5Seahawks14.3NO5022.54182118
76.0Panthers28.4ARI0020278156
74.0Bengals1.4BUF0511212962
73.0Cardinals1.3CAR50131717813
72.0Falcons2.8IND00141419187
71.0Browns47LAR55613122010
69.5Chiefs12.6BAL5016.51231914
69.0Saints72SEA00123021411
67.0Lions2.1PHI0067211617
63.0Ravens65.1KC003242529
63.0Jets11.8NE002352825
62.0Giants0.9TB004223123
60.0Redskins2.6CHI5015181534
59.0Broncos32.7GB05928179
57.0Raiders1MIN006112695
56.0Steelers17.9SF00962858
21.0Dolphins0.5DAL0019911

Defenses on Bye Week: NONE!

Optimum Score: 170

Minimum Score: 5

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

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  • Be sure to check your waivers for the Dallas Cowboys DST. I told you to pick them up last week and some of you listened. HOWEVER, 68% of ownership is worth a peek. Miami’s going to be a practice squad team at some point.
  • The San Francisco 49ers get their first home game this year after blowing out the Bucs and Bengals on the road. With Big Ben out, a banged-up James Conner, and a strong 6.5-point line from Vegas, the Niners should have a nice floor.
  • The Green Bay Packers are being underrated by the fantasy community for once! As a 7.5-point favorite, we should see Denver in a negative game script. Maybe that will actually force Joe Flacco to throw it further than five yards down the field? Nah…

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

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  • I have no clue what to think about this Thursday Night Football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Titans. The Titans should be a strong play this week against Uncle Rico despite his swagtastic presence. A subpar Houston defense kept them in check last week. However, the Jags have some inner turmoil going right now and it appears that Jalen Ramsey might sit this one out. My gut feeling says that Tennessee steamrolls them, but it’s your call.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have a curious ranking on the chart in Week 3. Although Matty Ice has been Matty Nice to defenses with his pick-throwing, he’s still putting up yards and points with that electric receiving core. I could see the Colts doing well at home, but I don’t think they win because of their defense. I’d be taking a wait-and-see approach with Indy.

Pop, Lock & Drop It

Why are these defenses so highly-owned? Should you drop them? What does the author know? Does he know things? Let’s find out!



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  • A lot of the success the New Orleans Saints DST experiences is when they are in positive game scripts. That may be a thing of the past with Drew Brees out for a couple of months. If you are in a deep league where you roster two defenses, I get keeping them. Seattle and Dallas are two bad matchups in a row, but they will then see three straight plus-matchups. I’m just a diehard streamer, I guess.
  • Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots. Those are the next five matchups for the Cleveland Browns. You got your lovely stream last Monday night, but it’s time to cut bait. There are too many defenses to pick up and stream for you to be holding on!

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

Follow me on Twitter at @therealwody. For all the latest news and best advice out there, like us on Facebook, Google+ and Instagram.

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