Fantasy Football

2019 Fantasy Football Week 4 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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I think the Week 3 Stream-O-Matic was as good as it’s ever been this early in the season. Nine of the top twelve put up DST1-caliber weeks and the other three were highlighted as ‘avoids’ for me. Not to toot the own horn, but beep beep.

Week 4 is a very strange one though and I want to take my wins as I get them. There are a lot of lopsided matchups where the defense should already be heavily-owned. Then, there are a bunch of head-scratching matchups that could be a coin flip as to how the game script looks.

Regardless, I’m going to navigate the maze and point out some streamable defenses using the chart as a handy guide. I have a few qualms about the chart this week, so it’s (again) important to analyze the table and read on through to my quick bullet points.

Happy bye week season, everyone, and happy streaming here in Week 4!

2019 Fantasy Football Week 4 Defense Stream-O-Matic

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Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. (NOTE: I’ll be incorporating a weighted average with 2018-2019 data.)
  • FPPG: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings. (NOTE: I’m using DAVE rankings for the first few weeks.)

Stream-O-Matic Chart

OverallDefenseOwn%OppLocationWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOA
134Rams95.2TB502426272329
127Patriots96.6BUF002910243232
120Bears98.8MIN50275262928
111Ravens56.7CLE502525281414
109Packers62.1PHI501814123030
105Vikings89.9CHI002221172520
100Chargers86.9MIA00302730103
99Seahawks28.6ARI001728191718
97Titans56.1ATL00128292721
94Colts27.8OAK50261825128
92Panthers26.8HOU0082992224
91Buccaneers5.7LAR00315232426
89Jaguars86.5DEN002024141615
86Steelers22.4CIN5023222097
85Falcons4.7TEN50213011117
81Bills84.6NE5010672627
78Texans33.5CAR50191761516
73Cowboys58.9NO00164161819
68Broncos26.4JAX5028118610
68Browns35.8BAL0051352025
6249ers34.5BYE----------3131
59Saints64.2DAL5011118195
58Bengals1PIT001372279
57Chiefs12.6DET00143151312
55Lions2.2KC501232123
54Giants0.8WAS501592122
53Eagles45.7GB009194813
50Jets8.6BYE----------2822
47Cardinals2.5SEA504202511
45Dolphins0.4LAC502231311
41Raiders0.9IND007161044
38Redskins3.9NYG006121136

Defenses on Bye Week: 49ers, Jets

Optimum Score: 164

Minimum Score: 5

Streaming Service

Here I’ll talk about defenses that stand out on the chart as valid waiver wire options. Just like streaming services versus cable/satellite in the TV world, streaming defenses are more popular than the drafted ones. Not a bold take.

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  • Everyone panic-dropped the Baltimore Ravens DST as they were playing the best offense in the NFL. Now, it’s time to pick them back up. The Browns should have a rough time keeping up with Lamar Jackson & crew, leading to negative game script. Baker hasn’t handled the heat and the Ravens should kick him out of the kitchen.
  • If you are looking for a floor-play, the Seattle Seahawks defense should perform well on the road against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet, highlighted by his terrible downfield throwing stats. Murray is 30th out of 35 quarterbacks who have played this season in yards per attempt. That’s after guys like Eli Manning, Luke Falk, and Mason Rudolph. The Cards aren’t much of a threat to put up quick points and their o-line is among the worst in the league. It’s an easy stream for me.
  • Perhaps the worst streamable defense is the Indianapolis Colts DST in Week 4. The Raiders are in disarray though with Derek Carr playing poorly his last couple of games. The recipe for success has been laid out for opposing defenses to succeed against Oakland and I expect a good coaching staff like Indy’s to capitalize on that.

Run Away!

Here I’ll talk about waiver wire defenses that the chart likes but I’m not comfortable streaming. I will be running away – not unlike King Arthur and his knights upon their visit with the French.

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  • Some will promote the play of the Green Bay Packers DST, but I am a little skeptical. They’ve played three subpar quarterbacks to start the season with each grading 17th or worse at the position by Pro Football Focus. This week, they’ll get Carson Wentz and a hungry Philly squad on Thursday night. With Alshon Jeffery back, I’m expecting this to be a high-scoring game. Definitely not buying the chart’s No. 5 ranking.
  • I don’t particularly care for the Tennessee Titans DST going into Week 4. While it hasn’t been the defense’s fault that their 1-2 (in fact, it’s because of the defense that they aren’t 0-3), the script just isn’t there for them to succeed. Marcus Mariota and the offense is anemic, leading to these ground-and-pound punting contests. Matt Ryan found his groove against a better Colts defense last week and get yet another dome game. I’m looking elsewhere for my streaming options.
  • I don’t know why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST is that high up on the chart. For the love of God, please don’t pick them up.

Lagniappe

I’ve still got a little Louisiana in me. I’ll go through some extra notes in this section like future shares and units to drop.



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  • The Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos are going to play an absolute stinker this week. The O/U is 38.5 as of this writing and I honestly have no reservations in hammering the under. This makes both defenses streamable this week contrary to what the chart says above. By the way, the weather is trending to be favorable for these defenses as well (heavy winds).
  • Owners of the Buffalo Bills DST are in a tight spot in Week 4. You absolutely cannot play them against the Patriots this week. However, their schedule moving forward: @TEN, bye, MIA, PHI, @WAS. In odd weeks, you’ll have a fantastic option. In even weeks, including this one, they’ll be a hard sit. My suggestion is to bite the bullet and drop the Bills for your Week 4 streamer. The closer you can do it to Sunday kickoff, the better – that way you can have a shot at them to stream next week. Otherwise, keep tuning into this article and find the next big streamer.
  • The same applies for the New Orleans Saints DST, who gets a tough Dallas offense this week. After this, they’ll attract the Bucs, Jags, Bears, and Cards – all great matchups. The fantasy output of the Saints D has been a lot better than the actual product, so I’m totally fine dropping them. Again, avoid rostering two defenses at all costs early in the season. It’s never worth it.

Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

Follow me on Twitter at @therealwody. For all the latest news and best advice out there, like us on Facebook, Google+ and Instagram.

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